MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That would put me over a foot for the winter! Both of us! It would be my 4th accumulating snowfall, which I have never witnessed, IMBY this season and 7th counting last winter. Growing up in the Atlanta area you hope and prayed just to get 1 a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 UKMet at 72. It looks like the UKMet / Euro / NAM suite are in fair agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 JMA gives ATL-AHN ~1.5" to 2"of snow N ATL burbs. Summary for 12Z for ATL-AHN with approximations of snowfall: NAM: 4" Euro: 2.5" JMA: 1.5" UKMET: 1.5" GGEM: 1" GFS: 0" Avg.: 1.75" Based on this somewhat wetter consensus, I've decided to up the overall snowfall chance scenario for ATL to the following: None: 15% Trace: 15% 0.1-1" 25% 1.1-2" 20% 2.1-4" 15% 4.1"+ 10% If I were forced to pick an amount for ATL, I'd go with 1" as of now. Earlier, I would have gone with T to 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm still going with 2-4" here for now. I'm keeping the faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 This system kind of reminds me of the Christmas storm to a certain degree, in terms of QPF amounts leading up to the storm. It may b wishful thinking, but were we not seeing issues with amounts 3 days before and then the models started catching back on? Didn't our "awesome" (tongue in cheek)?American models play catchup with forecasted totals, even during the storm? Lastly, I THINK we have a much colder look this go round? Thanks for any input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Four days ago everybody was praying for suppression when a lot of experts were calling for a massive NW shift in the models as if it were a foregone conclusion. Are the dynamics that led some to predict NW movements now back in play? Or were those assumptions simple patternology. That's an excellent question. I guess the moral of the story is: be careful what you wish for because you just my get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Both of us! It would be my 4th accumulating snowfall, which I have never witnessed, IMBY this season and 7th counting last winter. Growing up in the Atlanta area you hope and prayed just to get 1 a year. for sure - i usually hope for a couple of chances, then maybe one snow event and maybe one ice event during the winter. the last two have been phenomenal with double digit numbers of events, and large double digits for amounts. when i add up the totals for the last two winters its just downright 'scary' lol hopefully we can eek out another event this week for at least a couple of inches. i can remember several times we would go two years or more with NO winter events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wasn't the euro only showing around .3qpf for most people 24 hours before the January snow storm? Everybody just discarded it b/c all other guidance had .4 to .75 inches of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 This system kind of reminds me of the Christmas storm to a certain degree, in terms of QPF amounts leading up to the storm. It may b wishful thinking, but were we not seeing issues with amounts 3 days before and then the models started catching back on? Didn't our "awesome" (tongue in cheek)?American models play catchup with forecasted totals, even during the storm? Lastly, I THINK we have a much colder look this go round? Thanks for any input! Much better temp wise this go around prior to precip arrival. From a temp standpoint, the GFS has never waivered from this being an all snow event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Just wait til the RUC gets in range....you know that thing will have the precip farther north. We'll have folks para-trooping because the temps are rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 UKMet at 72. It looks like the UKMet / Euro / NAM suite are in fair agreement. ]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_12z/f72.gif That looks to be .4" QPF for a chunk of people including CLT and RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Before the Jan storm everyone was backing down on qpf... NWS, models, everyone, even up until that Sunday afternoon. But that evening the storm ramped up and I had .55" liquid/7.5" snow. Everyone was wringing their hands and jumping ship and you see what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That looks to be .4" QPF for a chunk of people including CLT and RDU. Any idea of ratios with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That looks to be .4" QPF for a chunk of people including CLT and RDU. Maybe more like .2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 UKMet at 72. It looks like the UKMet / Euro / NAM suite are in fair agreement. Getting that freezing line all the way to the NC coast is like pulling teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Any idea of ratios with this storm? Nam is showing somewhere around 18:1 on bufkit soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That looks to be .4" QPF for a chunk of people including CLT and RDU. Actually, it looks like 0.10 to me on the UKMet...WeatherNC was pointing out yesterday that it does tend to have a bias for being too far south. PSU Ewall has a blurb on it... One general bias of the UKMET model is that it tends to place weather features too far south. The model tends to position storms too far south since the Westerlies on the model are often located too far to the south. Also the model is often too low with heights along the southern end of short wave troughs, which results in a storm track that is often too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Maybe more like .2" Keep in mind that is 6 hour totals between hour 66 and 72 and it doesn't show the totals between hours 60 and 66. I wish I knew why the makers of the uk only give 6 hour totals through 48 hours but then only show 6 hour totals for hours 60 and 72. It's just stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aanance Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Anyone have any thoughts on Eastern NC say around the Greenville area? Whats the deal with this second Low coming through on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Keep in mind that is 6 hour totals between hour 66 and 72 and it doesn't show the totals between hours 60 and 66. I wish I knew why the makers of the uk only give 6 hour totals through 48 hours but then only show 6 hour totals for hours 60 and 72. It's just stupid. I didn't catch that, Lookout. Man, that is stupid! Btw, is there anywhere (paid sites or otherwise) to get more detailed info on the UK met? It has been performing pretty well, yet we analyze the sucky GFS to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I didn't catch that, Lookout. Man, that is stupid! Btw, is there anywhere (paid sites or otherwise) to get more detailed info on the UK met? It has been performing pretty well, yet we analyze the sucky GFS to death. Completely agree with this comment on the over analysis of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 HPC's comments... ...WAVE CROSSING THE GULF STATES DAY 3... PREFERENCE: NAM/ECMWF COMPROMISE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...WITH THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL ON THE SUPPRESSED END. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE LAST DAY OR SO...WHICH FITS THE RECENTLY ESTABLISHED MEAN RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL RELY ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF WITH THE DETAILS OF THE WAVE...IN DEFERENCE TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well...the NAM bufkit wants to give CAE some love as it's showing about 2" snow after some sprinkles...the GFS temps are to warm if even if bufkit showed moisture GFS 12Z 110210/0000Z 60 12003KT 35.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110210/0300Z 63 12004KT 35.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110210/0600Z 66 VRB01KT 37.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110210/0900Z 69 36005KT 37.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110210/1200Z 72 03009KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110210/1500Z 75 06010KT 38.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110210/1800Z 78 06009KT 45.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110210/2100Z 81 06007KT 45.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 12Z NAM 110210/0700Z 67 07008KT 36.1F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110210/0800Z 68 04007KT 35.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.031|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110210/0900Z 69 04009KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.039|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110210/1000Z 70 04009KT 34.0F SNPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.028|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 4| 88| 7 110210/1100Z 71 05010KT 33.6F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.051|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 5| 90| 5 110210/1200Z 72 04011KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.031|| 0.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110210/1300Z 73 03010KT 32.9F SNPL 6:1| 0.5|| 0.5 0.083|| 0.27 0.08|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 52| 40| 7 110210/1400Z 74 04009KT 32.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 1.4 0.079|| 0.35 0.00|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1500Z 75 04010KT 32.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 1.9 0.063|| 0.41 0.00|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1600Z 76 04009KT 32.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 2.1 0.024|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1700Z 77 04009KT 32.7F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 2.1 0.020|| 0.45 0.00|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well...the NAM bufkit wants to give CAE some love as it's showing about 2" snow after some sprinkles...the GFS temps are to warm if even if bufkit showed moisture Considering this will probably be the last "substantial" winter wx event around the SE, would be nice to see a lil snow for the CAE area. Hope we make out okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z bufkit gives clt 3.2" with ratios of 21:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Keep in mind that is 6 hour totals between hour 66 and 72 and it doesn't show the totals between hours 60 and 66. I wish I knew why the makers of the uk only give 6 hour totals through 48 hours but then only show 6 hour totals for hours 60 and 72. It's just stupid. Thanks, didn't realize that....PSU Ewall backs up what you are saying in their model description...oh well, it's good news since the amounts should be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Before the Jan storm everyone was backing down on qpf... NWS, models, everyone, even up until that Sunday afternoon. But that evening the storm ramped up and I had .55" liquid/7.5" snow. Everyone was wringing their hands and jumping ship and you see what happened. To help us compare: Looking back at my records, here are some of the amounts for ATL being shown on the various models and the NWS a few days in advance of the late 1/9- early 1/10 ATL snow: THU 1/6: "12Z Euro has a whopping ~6-7" of snow for ATL area based on qpf of ~0.70" and 850's that are mainly in the -2 to -4C range." FRI 1/7: "Winter storm watch issued. FFC is saying 3-5 for Atlanta with 5-7 in the northern tier" " I will say that this is realistic based on current model consensus." SAT 1/8 0Z: "0Z Euro only has ~3" of snow (low outlier then and lower than what Euro had earlier)" SAT 1/8 12Z: "GFS (similar to 6Z GFS) gives ~4.5" of snow Cobb county and ~6" of snow Cumming area both followed by a short period of IP and then light ZR for a good portion of the day Mon. The 6Z and 12Z NAM's are heavier (7-8"!!) but are outliers...I'd consider them the very high end of possiblities." So, if it were to do what the 1/9-10 storm did (ramp up almost to the high outlier (NAM), we could be looking at close to 4". However, I'm still giving 4" only a small chance even in your area...say ~20% as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 15Z SREF; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z bufkit gives clt 3.2" with ratios of 21:1 I'll take that and like it...hopefully the 18z leads the way and gets wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 15Z SREF; Isn't that coming in wetter then the 9z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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