FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wetter @72 will be interesting to see the ensembles...this was a positive step. Looks like for us this is between .10 and .20" , can't see the exact qpf but it was a little wetter for sure in all of NC. The low is just south of the Fl. panhandle at 66 hours, a good spot for us, but since its so weak, probably doesn't mean much, However one thing I did like was the robust s/w and how much longer it held together....that to me is a giant sign really. Very unlike the GFS that totally loses the s/w. Also, it heads northeast just off the east coast, not due east out to sea, another slight trend thats probably significant, meaning overall further north and wetter, but still not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z euro QPF Rdu .19 GSO .14 Clt .22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yes, seems to be some discrepancy on qpf totals. The map I see shows generally 0.25 or less for most. The exception being for the nc coast where they might get a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Is the freezing line below the I-20 corridor on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 BHM, ATL, AHN, and CLT are all near 0.25" qpf. 2nd low forms offshore the SE us 2/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Here's Cherokee County airport K47A .22 qpf ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: 47A LAT= 34.30 LON= -84.42 ELE= 1221 12Z FEB07 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 07-FEB 0.3 2.2 1015 85 49 0.00 558 545 MON 18Z 07-FEB 11.8 2.6 1011 46 43 0.00 554 545 TUE 00Z 08-FEB 7.2 0.6 1008 91 72 0.07 546 539 TUE 06Z 08-FEB 1.4 -4.2 1016 89 20 0.08 551 538 TUE 12Z 08-FEB -2.2 -4.4 1021 75 6 0.00 557 540 TUE 18Z 08-FEB 5.3 -4.1 1024 43 19 0.00 559 540 WED 00Z 09-FEB 1.2 -4.5 1024 57 44 0.00 561 541 WED 06Z 09-FEB -2.9 -0.7 1026 67 46 0.00 563 542 WED 12Z 09-FEB -4.0 -2.0 1026 69 42 0.00 561 541 WED 18Z 09-FEB 7.3 -2.2 1023 40 51 0.00 561 543 THU 00Z 10-FEB 5.1 -2.5 1018 59 74 0.00 558 543 THU 06Z 10-FEB 0.9 -4.1 1019 77 99 0.07 554 539 THU 12Z 10-FEB -1.6 -5.2 1019 87 56 0.15 551 536 THU 18Z 10-FEB 5.2 -5.0 1019 54 16 0.00 556 541 FRI 00Z 11-FEB 1.9 -4.1 1019 69 11 0.00 555 539 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -2.0 -4.3 1021 79 12 0.00 554 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like .25 to .50 for almost everyone. We need this to keep trending wetter from here on out. The problem that I'm seeing w/ this is the bulk of that precip comes into the Carolinas Thursday afternoon when 2m temps suck. Ga is in a better spot because there heavier precip is coming in over night and morning hours. Imo the euro is showing some snow in the morning hours for RDU but it will change to rain as we move into noon hours. If the precip moves in earlier than what the models are showing (which has happened several times this year) we would stand a better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Doesn't sound as good precip wise as first noted but still better than GFS and the Euros 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z euro QPF Rdu .19 GSO .14 Clt .22 Thanks, that looks like what I was seeing. Yes, seems to be some discrepancy on qpf totals. I'm taking away the small amount from today's so all I see is the cumulative. Packbacker's totals looks right for the next storm. If we do have those cold 850's that may squeze out a couple inches here, if not more. I know some folks in the Christmas storm got 5" from very little qpf. I bet the SREF comes north some next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Is the freezing line below the I-20 corridor on the Euro? Looks like CAE has boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like precip timing is just right here...between 0z and 6z is when .19 falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The problem that I'm seeing w/ this is the bulk of that precip comes into the Carolinas Thursday afternoon when 2m temps suck. Ga is in a better spot because there heavier precip is coming in over night and morning hours. Imo the euro is showing some snow in the morning hours for RDU but it will change to rain as we move into noon hours. If the precip moves in earlier than what the models are showing (which has happened several times this year) we would stand a better chance. For RDU the bulk falls before 7:00am and then I would imagine most of it's done by 9:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like CAE has boundary layer issues. Thanks for the info. Figured it would be something like that for our area. Typically always is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Just saw the Euro and the Ukie- they are very similar QPF wise with about .25 here- looks like a GFS op fail. 1"at least, maybe up to 3" MBY looks like an optimistic first call, but will need to see things hold steady for me to get super excited, but confidence is increasing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The problem that I'm seeing w/ this is the bulk of that precip comes into the Carolinas Thursday afternoon when 2m temps suck. Ga is in a better spot because there heavier precip is coming in over night and morning hours. Imo the euro is showing some snow in the morning hours for RDU but it will change to rain as we move into noon hours. If the precip moves in earlier than what the models are showing (which has happened several times this year) we would stand a better chance. Its highly unlikely to change to rain there imo at any point. The 850's are sufficiently cold, and it starts around dawn there if not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The Euro has a very close call for coastal Carolinas late Friday as well. Something that has to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Let the beginning of the NW trend manifest itself! I agree with Robert that this likely won't have the ability to come back as far north as the Christmas Day Storm (that was a much more amplified solution) but something along the lines of a February 12th event last year, except not quite as cold to work with looks like a pretty safe call. It will be interesting to see if the next series of runs start to show a more NW trend in earnest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Here's Cherokee County airport K47A .22 qpf ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: 47A LAT= 34.30 LON= -84.42 ELE= 1221 12Z FEB07 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 07-FEB 0.3 2.2 1015 85 49 0.00 558 545 MON 18Z 07-FEB 11.8 2.6 1011 46 43 0.00 554 545 TUE 00Z 08-FEB 7.2 0.6 1008 91 72 0.07 546 539 TUE 06Z 08-FEB 1.4 -4.2 1016 89 20 0.08 551 538 TUE 12Z 08-FEB -2.2 -4.4 1021 75 6 0.00 557 540 TUE 18Z 08-FEB 5.3 -4.1 1024 43 19 0.00 559 540 WED 00Z 09-FEB 1.2 -4.5 1024 57 44 0.00 561 541 WED 06Z 09-FEB -2.9 -0.7 1026 67 46 0.00 563 542 WED 12Z 09-FEB -4.0 -2.0 1026 69 42 0.00 561 541 WED 18Z 09-FEB 7.3 -2.2 1023 40 51 0.00 561 543 THU 00Z 10-FEB 5.1 -2.5 1018 59 74 0.00 558 543 THU 06Z 10-FEB 0.9 -4.1 1019 77 99 0.07 554 539 THU 12Z 10-FEB -1.6 -5.2 1019 87 56 0.15 551 536 THU 18Z 10-FEB 5.2 -5.0 1019 54 16 0.00 556 541 FRI 00Z 11-FEB 1.9 -4.1 1019 69 11 0.00 555 539 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -2.0 -4.3 1021 79 12 0.00 554 538 .22" with 850s of -4 to -5 would probably translate to 3-4" of snow. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The Euro has a very close call for coastal Carolinas late Friday as well. Something that has to be watched. The Euro has had that for several runs with the subsequent wave. Also, the Ukie has that 2nd wave. Something to watch mainly for the coastal secition of NC and maybe further SW down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sorry guys as per QPF total I was just making a guess based on what I saw...add to that I was eating so I threw it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The problem that I'm seeing w/ this is the bulk of that precip comes into the Carolinas Thursday afternoon when 2m temps suck. Ga is in a better spot because there heavier precip is coming in over night and morning hours. Imo the euro is showing some snow in the morning hours for RDU but it will change to rain as we move into noon hours. If the precip moves in earlier than what the models are showing (which has happened several times this year) we would stand a better chance. For all the shortcomings of the GFS, I like how it handles sfc temps. Here's the 12z GFS output for RDU. As Foothills mentioned, you've got very cold 850mb temps (all below -5 C). Precip is likely done by late morning, but even at 1PM, if precip were still around, you've got a web-bulb temp of 31 (temp of 39, Dewpoint of 15)...all looks good for snow as of NOW. 60 02/10 00Z 32 21 231 4 0.00 0.00 534 552 -5.1 -21.9 1022.6 69 CLR 151FEW226 228BKN287 43 32 20.0 66 02/10 06Z 33 27 349 7 0.03 0.00 532 550 -5.7 -22.9 1022.7 90 -SN 060SCT113 113BKN226 226SCT257 36 32 8.3 72 02/10 12Z 28 20 359 7 0.01 0.00 528 547 -6.7 -25.0 1023.8 99 -SN 056BKN112 117BKN190 CLR 33 28 20.0 78 02/10 18Z 39 15 5 6 0.00 0.00 528 548 -6.8 -22.1 1024.3 59 060BKN112 113FEW150 CLR 39 28 20.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The Euro has had that for several runs with the subsequent wave. Also, the Ukie has that 2nd wave. Something to watch mainly for the coastal secition of NC and maybe further SW down the coast. yeah, and look how todays event really amped up as of late. The next wave may work its way into a good position for the Southeast coast somewhere, but will take a couple days probably to know. Trends are what matters I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Seen murders of crows flying all over the place...Ominous. Four days ago everybody was praying for suppression when a lot of experts were calling for a massive NW shift in the models as if it were a foregone conclusion. Are the dynamics that led some to predict NW movements now back in play? Or were those assumptions simple patternology. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 yeah, and look how todays event really amped up as of late. The next wave may work its way into a good position for the Southeast coast somewhere, but will take a couple days probably to know. Trends are what matters I think. This current wave has been significantly wetter. I've been dodging heavy rain at times out on the road running errands, and I think until we change the pattern around, this next system will likely do the same. I'm going with persistence, and past performance of the last several s/w's bringing moisture across the region, and it couldn't have been much more of a welcome sight to see the ground actually not rock hard from bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The Euro has a very close call for coastal Carolinas late Friday as well. Something that has to be watched. Yep, this is a fairly new scenario, one that has started to show up over the last 24 hrs and is gaining support. The 0z Euro was a little wetter here with the second wave compared to this run, which still puts down a little QPF on Sat. The Canadian keeps all the moisture right along the coast, as does the GFS. But the 120hr Euro panel this run looks pretty good with a 1008mb low east of HAT, something to watch and has my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 def' going to be interesting to watch this one. this could turn into a nice little event for some. nothing historic, but could be a solid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Here's Cherokee County airport K47A .22 qpf ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: 47A LAT= 34.30 LON= -84.42 ELE= 1221 12Z FEB07 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 07-FEB 0.3 2.2 1015 85 49 0.00 558 545 MON 18Z 07-FEB 11.8 2.6 1011 46 43 0.00 554 545 TUE 00Z 08-FEB 7.2 0.6 1008 91 72 0.07 546 539 TUE 06Z 08-FEB 1.4 -4.2 1016 89 20 0.08 551 538 TUE 12Z 08-FEB -2.2 -4.4 1021 75 6 0.00 557 540 TUE 18Z 08-FEB 5.3 -4.1 1024 43 19 0.00 559 540 WED 00Z 09-FEB 1.2 -4.5 1024 57 44 0.00 561 541 WED 06Z 09-FEB -2.9 -0.7 1026 67 46 0.00 563 542 WED 12Z 09-FEB -4.0 -2.0 1026 69 42 0.00 561 541 WED 18Z 09-FEB 7.3 -2.2 1023 40 51 0.00 561 543 THU 00Z 10-FEB 5.1 -2.5 1018 59 74 0.00 558 543 THU 06Z 10-FEB 0.9 -4.1 1019 77 99 0.07 554 539 THU 12Z 10-FEB -1.6 -5.2 1019 87 56 0.15 551 536 THU 18Z 10-FEB 5.2 -5.0 1019 54 16 0.00 556 541 FRI 00Z 11-FEB 1.9 -4.1 1019 69 11 0.00 555 539 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -2.0 -4.3 1021 79 12 0.00 554 538 There would be some great ratios with -4 to -5 850s. Thanks for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Here are the 12z GFS Ensembles 72hour precip amounts ending at hour 102. Notice how out of bounds the Operational (top left panel) is compared to ALL of the other members. 4 out of the 11 mbrs show similar QPF amounts across north GA as to the 12z NAM. Now the 12z EURO was a little less bullish than then 12NAM but still a nice event with the cold upper levels to help snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Euro is definitely more expansive this run with the 700mb RH field. Northern edge of the 90%+ field goes west to east from C KS to C VA. We've just got to keep the wave intact as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 .22" with 850s of -4 to -5 would probably translate to 3-4" of snow. Nice! That would put me over a foot for the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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