burrel2 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I looked at the forecast for Paducah, KY this morning and the nowcast blurb was saying up to an inch of snow could accumulate before it tapered off. They now have 6 inches on the ground and it's still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wasn't the run of the UKMET pretty good this morning. Refresh my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I looked at the forecast for Paducah, KY this morning and the nowcast blurb was saying up to an inch of snow could accumulate before it tapered off. They now have 6 inches on the ground and it's still snowing. and.... just the opposite, Huntsville backed off their rain/snow chances for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS ensemble mean holds serve with .15-.2 in ATL- it is becoming obvious that the GFS op is having trouble with this system- as it is now the only guidance that is totally dry in north GA and points east. The chance of a blockbuster storm is basically nil, but totally dry? I think not either. This one will be a nail biter right up to game time methinks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS ensemble mean holds serve with .15-.2 in ATL- it is becoming obvious that the GFS op is having trouble with this system- as it is now the only guidance that is totally dry in north GA and points east. The chance of a blockbuster storm is basically nil, but totally dry? I think not either. This one will be a nail biter right up to game time methinks.... The GGEM is a bit problematic too. What do you honestly think these two models are handling wrong or right? Is it a much different look @ 500 than the other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 and.... just the opposite, Huntsville backed off their rain/snow chances for today. Yeah, and it looks like N Ga will be hard pressed to find much rain from the way things are looking. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The GGEM and SREF as well as UKMET look really similar. The NAM is a little wetter overall, and holds the vort in tact longer, the GFS is driest. Right now, it looks like if you draw a line from the southern TN border to the Carolinas border, everywhere south of that line is the heart of the precip. The SREF and UKMET rh fields have been showing this steady now, the only thing is now the SREF upped the amounts around Ark and northern half of Mississippi, before the moisture and rates decrease while heading east. Its a wait and see as to how far north and how strong, but I don't think it makes much more enroads north of that border , give or take 50 miles. For eastern NC, it lurches north somewhere east of CLT roughly, which fits climo tracks. Now however is the time to start paying attention to the SREF trends, as its pretty solid. All models are agreeing that weakening begins roughly at the Miss. River, just the NAM holds on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 If this wave were coming out of the southern stream through S CA and into TX, we could afford to have more hope with the QPF ramping up, even if the wave looked weak...it's going to be a taller task this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks very good for the I-20 corridor and north through MS/AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah, and it looks like N Ga will be hard pressed to find much rain from the way things are looking. T I think you need to change the date for the Jan 9 storm. It says Jan 9, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks to me like the NAM and UKMet are similar with the trough tilt at 48 (more toward neutral), whereas the GGEM and GFS are more positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks very good for the I-20 corridor and north through MS/AL. Every single ensemble member continues to be wetter than the operational gfs This is the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Every single ensemble member continues to be wetter than the operational gfs This is the 12z run It's almost unbelievable how different the ensembles are from the op run. Why such a spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Great question. One has to win out, right? Why such a spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It has been interesting to watch the models continually downgrade storms in our area from over an 1" qpf to .3 or less this year in the great majority of our area. Personally here in the Triad, I am ready to throw in the towel on this one and get to the warm up that has been seen in the long range for a while now and which should put an end to winter pretty much in the SE. To those in Ga and SC who still could get an inch or two out of this I say "Rock on" and good luck. Absent a return of the -NAO and the Greenland block and +PNA reforming in late month or to mid March, we are done IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It has been interesting to watch the models continually downgrade storms in our area from over an 1" qpf to .3 or less this year in the great majority of our area. Personally here in the Triad, I am ready to throw in the towel on this one and get to the warm up that has been seen in the long range for a while now and which should put an end to winter pretty much in the SE. To those in Ga and SC who still could get an inch or two out of this I say "Rock on" and good luck. Absent a return of the -NAO and the Greenland block and +PNA reforming in late month or to mid March, we are done IMO. I agree w/ this...We've seen this movie a few times this year and know how it ends. With the energy weakening as it goes across the gulf coast then trying to reform off the coast, the bulk of the moisture just skips right over us. Btw I've got the euro out to 42 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I agree w/ this...We've seen this movie a few times this year and no how it ends. With the energy weakening as it goes across the gulf coast then trying to reform off the coast, the bulk of the moisture just skips right over us. Btw I've got the euro out to 42 hrs. Looks better to me out to 48 compared to 00z...but after this who knows what happens? It can go to crap pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Out to 60 our storm is further north, I gotta think this will be a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wetter @72 will be interesting to see the ensembles...this was a positive step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 198 User(s) are reading this topic 110 members, 84 guests, 4 anonymous users Not bad for a storm of this size. You can tell it's been a while since we've seen decent flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like .25 to .50 for almost everyone. We need this to keep trending wetter from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12Z Euro gives ATL-AHN a very nice 2-3" of snow. So, the Euro is hanging in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That sounds great... Thanks for posting....... Looks like .25 to .50 for almost everyone. We need this to keep trending wetter from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 This run is wetter than the 0z run. 0.10 to 0.25 in general in the areas that are cold enough. For those in TN, generally around 0.10 but with 850s of -8c, ratios should be good. 850s across north ga/carolinas are generally around -4c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like .25 to .50 for almost everyone. We need this to keep trending wetter from here on out. interesting, hopefully the Euro can start the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Great run. From 60HR to 72HR, weak LP moves from LA to off NC coast. Widespread 0.25-0.5 QPF regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Very good step on the euro. Gfs is now basically alone showing no precip . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The 00z runs tonight will be telling since they will have a really good sample on the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like .25 to .50 for almost everyone. We need this to keep trending wetter from here on out. The map I see shows generally 0.25 or less for most. The exception being for the nc coast where they might get a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 the Euro/NAM rule is now in affect. Thanks for the EURO updates Just enough time for this to trend toward a decent event for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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