Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Man, it would be nice if the system over produced like this one right now. Nam/gfs have done an awful job with all the rain today to the south. Only with the 12z run does the gfs buy a clue. Just look at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS is rolling.... Thru 24 hours our shortwave looks a tad stronger and a tad further west....just barely. Looks stronger @33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 S/w is stronger versus 00z @ 36HR. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Man, it would be nice if the system over produced like this one right now. Nam/gfs have done an awful job with all the rain today to the south. Only with the 12z run does the gfs buy a clue. Just look at this. The NAM was laughable for right now...this gives us hope later on during the week....of course it almost never over performs towards me when it comes to snow but maybe you guys will get the spoils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 For GA I would say the 12z NAM held serve. The 700mb Omega looks pretty good and the NAM is depicting a "quick hit" type of deal with a duration of probably less than 6 hours unless you manage to be underneath the "streaker" band that almost always streams out ahead of the main system. Regarding the NAM "snowfall map" it puts the accumulation in almost exactly the same cutoff line as our January storm regarding Atlanta to where it gets just south of I-20 to about the airport. So on to the GFS.... I'm actually a little impressed with the consistency of the nam here. Normally you see wild swings in precip totals at this range but 3 runs in a row now it looks virtually the same. I certainly think the gfs is out in la la land with it's bone dry solution. As you noted, it has no support at all from it's ensembles or the euro ensembles. Now mind you the euro ensemble mean isn't great (0.10 from atlanta to athens and southward) but the point is it's an outlier for sure. I'm not quite sure how much to expect from this system yet but do feel we have a decent shot at an inch or two but I'm not trusting the models handling of precip with this system yet. Today's bust is a good reason why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 @48 our s/w is stronger then the 6z...the one worry and please correct me but don't we need that northern energy to be weaker? Looks stronger compared to the 6z. Of course our s/w out west is digging a little more so maybe that will help tap more gulf moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sadly though the trend in general for CLT has been for it not to get wetter but actually a little less qpf then modeled. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed though and won't write it off until 12z tomorrow. I was thinking about that yesterday burger...how strange it seemed that my area of the upstate (a little north of I-85 and slightly west of I-26) has really over performed this winter, yet CLT has been on the other side of the qpf projs. Sorry - I know this is like a frontage road to the main topic. It just seems unusual - especially having seen it twice this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Folks, The 12z nam gives Ahn as well as Atl from near the city to the n burbs a major snowstorm of ~4". The last three nam runs have given ahn and the n atl burbs significant amounts of snow. However, the nam remains an outlier as far as having the heaviest snow. Therefore, I'm continuing to maintain the following as far as general chances of snow for ATL: None: 30% Trace: 20% 0.1-1.0": 20% 1.1- 2.0": 15% 2.1- 4.0": 10% 4.1+": 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm actually a little impressed with the consistency of the nam here. Normally you see wild swings in precip totals at this range but 3 runs in a row now it looks virtually the same. I certainly think the gfs is out in la la land with it's bone dry solution. As you noted, it has no support at all from it's ensembles or the euro ensembles. Now mind you the euro ensemble mean isn't great (0.10 from atlanta to athens and southward) but the point is it's an outlier for sure. I'm not quite sure how much to expect from this system yet but do feel we have a decent shot at an inch or two but I'm not trusting the models handling of precip with this system yet. Today's bust is a good reason why. Honestly I was shocked the 12z held and was consistent with previous NAM runs. Still not hopeful in it yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The trailing vort on the GFS keeps getting closer and closer to the initial wave...could this actually help to energize our wave?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The trailing vort on the GFS keeps getting closer and closer to the initial wave...could this actually help to energize our wave?? @57 it looks like it might be doing it. Also lots more moisture in SE TX this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I really want the GFS temp profile and the NAM qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 @69 it doesn't look too good, flurries over WNC and the low in the gulf is on life support...looks like GA is in nada again per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 An yet the GFS holds serve and squashes the QPF to oblivion. Only increase was this streaker band that just skirts extreme N GA and TN and parts of NC/SC with <.1" QPF. This run was wetter....a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 An yet the GFS holds serve and squashes the QPF to oblivion. Only increase was this streaker band that just skirts extreme N GA and TN and parts of NC/SC with <.1" QPF. This run was wetter....a tad. Yep @75 it's game over...sheesh on to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Weird how the improvements before our system got here din't trickle down to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Honestly I was shocked the 12z held and was consistent with previous NAM runs. Still not hopeful in it yet though. I'm not buying it being so wet either right now, instead am thinking it will be somewhere in the middle..like 0.10 to 0.25 totals. The fact this system is shearing out as it moves east really makes it hard to figure out how much to expect. At least hpc agrees that the gfs is probably shearing it out too quick and is too dry. Regardless, I'd be happy with just an inch or two. 3 accumulating snows here in one winter would be great, regardless of the amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 We'll if this dry-bones scenerio holds serve(I dont think it will), then kudos to the GFS. It has been consistent for days now showing this, even when the euro was burying my house on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z GFS QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS says head to Hatteras for blizzard #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 An yet the GFS holds serve and squashes the QPF to oblivion. Only increase was this streaker band that just skirts extreme N GA and TN and parts of NC/SC with <.1" QPF. This run was wetter....a tad. I think the GFS is being too dry, point blank. There is a good divergence region ahead of it, so even if the 5h falls apart as quickly as it shows, the model (all I think) have a streak of moisture on the northern shield that actually may be enhanced, thats why its showing that precip. The NAM may be too wet, so far its an outlier but it does have ensemble support matching more closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah, I need an explanation on why most of GA has 0 QPF on the 12z run. Don't buy it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 RGEM at 48. GFS and RGEM have more positive tilt to the trough at 48 compared to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 OBX Special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Canadian looks fairly stout @ 60HR. Let's see where it goes from here. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/622_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Big, positive changes to Canadian. Night and day from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 You going to head back down like last time? Great shots, btw, during the last storm OBX Special Post without an image is just a post Skip Big, positive changes to Canadian. Night and day from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Canadian looks fairly stout @ 60HR. Let's see where it goes from here. http://www.weatherof...ast/622_100.gif At 72 it weakens it but does break out light precip which is an improvement over the 00Z run. I agree with Foothills that the GFS is too dry- it is an outlier in breaking out no precip at all- this vort max will shear out in the confluent flow- the question is how fast. I like the fact the NAM stuck to its guns, and last nights Euro ensembles also had precip as well as most of the 06Z GFS ensembles. So we are hanging on to a last gasp hope of an inch or two of snow- then I will be ready for spring and severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well the 12z GFS ENS has more QPF but it's lighter then the 6z ENS which is probably not a good trend. Actually it increases QPF to southern GA and northern FL but keeps N GA and NC around the same maybe just a hair lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 No big changes with the morning run of the UKMet...looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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