BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like the NAM is catching on to the rest of the modelling with regards to QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like the NAM is catching on to the rest of the modelling with regards to QPF. Sadly yes...we just miss out ...not a good sign for us, but knowing the GFS it will probably come out wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z Nam drops several inches across Nrn Alabama and Nrn GA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah, at 72 they are both at 1012mb? Strange, I don't know if that is right or not but if this could just pull back 50-100 miles NW this would be an amazing storm on the NAM, not giving up just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Where did the second low off SC coast come from Burger, or have I missed something? at hour 66 Hasn't that been on the GFS for awhile now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 based on the snowfall maps it would be 2-4 inches IMBY verbatim...I'll take it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM qpf stayed about the same as 00z for the I-20 corridor with widespread 0.25-0.50 showing up. Lesser amounts now showing up into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hasn't that been on the GFS for awhile now? Yes it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 based on the snowfall maps it would be 2-4 inches IMBY verbatim...I'll take it at this point. Yeah it looks good for 2-4" for northern 1/3 of GA, NW 1/2 of SC and I-95 and points east in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z Nam drops several inches across Nrn Alabama and Nrn GA.. Does that include the Atl metro area or mainly the mountains ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z Nam drops several inches across Nrn Alabama and Nrn GA.. Yep....I'll take this run for GA as it would be a decent little event. Still not buying it's QPF yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Not going to set a rain/snow line yet. But in general the NAM would be a 2-4" snowfall for northern 1/3 of MS/AL/GA with maybe 5" into the northern 1/4 of each state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 there is still i think some trending north if this storm does like the others did, I don't think much but will trend north a little. Not going to set a rain/snow line yet. But in general the NAM would be a 2-4" snowfall for northern 1/3 of MS/AL/GA with maybe 5" into the northern 1/4 of each state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 based on the snowfall maps it would be 2-4 inches IMBY verbatim...I'll take it at this point. Yea close to being a big hit. Glad to see that 850 line well east of us, since it loves to ride 85, and just a few miles difference gives us 33 or 34 and rain like this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yep....I'll take this run for GA as it would be a decent little event. Still not buying it's QPF yet though. Yea, gotta see about this coastal transfer and all but I agree I think the fact its showing 2-4 with that being modeled tells me things still look very much on track for decent event and possibly close to a significant one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 For GA I would say the 12z NAM held serve. The 700mb Omega looks pretty good and the NAM is depicting a "quick hit" type of deal with a duration of probably less than 6 hours unless you manage to be underneath the "streaker" band that almost always streams out ahead of the main system. Regarding the NAM "snowfall map" it puts the accumulation in almost exactly the same cutoff line as our January storm regarding Atlanta to where it gets just south of I-20 to about the airport. So on to the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I may be wrong, but the storm down in the Gulf looks stronger as well, which has been a trend all year, for these storms to really do much better than modeling suggested. So if there is our normal slight NW trend and some strengthening with this storm, it could be a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I may be wrong, but the storm down in the Gulf looks stronger as well, which has been a trend all year, for these storms to really do much better than modeling suggested. So if there is our normal slight NW trend and some strengthening with this storm, it could be a decent event. Sadly though the trend in general for CLT has been for it not to get wetter but actually a little less qpf then modeled. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed though and won't write it off until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z NAM is a tick stronger with the 850mb low compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sadly though the trend in general for CLT has been for it not to get wetter but actually a little less qpf then modeled. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed though and won't write it off until 12z tomorrow. Yea true. I have come down to earth this year though and will be happy with half of what modeling is showing, since that seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looking at the NAM snowfall map it's amazing how similar it looks to the Jan 9-10 storm in terms of the southern edge of the snow. Maybe FFC will be right after all with their rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GSP is banging the drum of upper divergence associated with the right entrance region of the jet streak overr the mid-Atlantic...and the deep moisture in the dendrite snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Strange, the NAM held serve for all except those of us in NC from the triad and Charlotte area NW. Not what I hoped to see but its not over yet and I am worried about this one. Funny how the GFS led the way to suppression as usual with this storm. It can't be right this time can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 For GA I would say the 12z NAM held serve. The 700mb Omega looks pretty good and the NAM is depicting a "quick hit" type of deal with a duration of probably less than 6 hours unless you manage to be underneath the "streaker" band that almost always streams out ahead of the main system. Regarding the NAM "snowfall map" it puts the accumulation in almost exactly the same cutoff line as our January storm regarding Atlanta to where it gets just south of I-20 to about the airport. So on to the GFS.... Are you still in the sweet spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I guess if you're in Dallas you're rooting for the GFS and if you're in the southeast you're rooting for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Are you still in the sweet spot? Hard to tell because that little sliver of >.50" QPF that showed up on the 6z NAM across N GA did not show up on the 12z NAM. So I guess one could argue the 12z NAM came in a tad drier across far N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Strange, the NAM held serve for all except those of us in NC from the triad and Charlotte area NW. Not what I hoped to see but its not over yet and I am worried about this one. Funny how the GFS led the way to suppression as usual with this storm. It can't be right this time can it? Yeah, Burger's Snow Triangle is located right over WNC at NAM hour 72. I'd much prefer you to keep your own Bermuda Snow Triangle down there, Burger. We really don't want it up here. At this point, I can't be a model-hugger, even though trends aren't looking good for me. Trying to stay positive here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GSP is banging the drum of upper divergence associated with the right entrance region of the jet streak overr the mid-Atlantic...and the deep moisture in the dendrite snow growth zone. and here is what they said WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD LONGWAVE TROF WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE TROF APPROACHES...150KT JET WILL PASS OVER THE NC/VA LINE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF JET DIVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 15 KFT. TEMPERATURES PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR OPTIMAL ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. DEEP LIFT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA AS THE H5 TO H7 TROF RIPPLES ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6Z TO 12Z...PROVIDING THE BEST SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS DURING THE NIGHT...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO FALL AS PURE SNOW. THURSDAY...LOW AND MID TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER THE ATLANTIC AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Colossal differences between the NAM and GGEM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS is rolling.... Thru 24 hours our shortwave looks a tad stronger and a tad further west....just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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