MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Check this out....6z GFS ensemble mbrs. Operational is the top left. EVERY member on this panel says the operational is OUT TO LUNCH. This is from the PENN State E-Wall.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_6z/f72.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Dawson, if you would be so kind.. Thoughts as to why the OP is out to lunch.. Thanks Check this out....6z GFS ensemble mbrs. Operational is the top left. EVERY member on this panel says the operational is OUT TO LUNCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The current low pressure in the Gulf is starting to look more impressive. Pretty heavy precip based on the returns http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_southeast_wide_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Seems like with every storm this year the models just lost it within the 3 day period only to trend back to it. Let's see if we start to see some of that at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Seems like with every storm this year the models just lost it within the 3 day period only to trend back to it. Let's see if we start to see some of that at 12z. I wish more people would realize this FACT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Check this out....6z GFS ensemble mbrs. Operational is the top left. EVERY member on this panel says the operational is OUT TO LUNCH. This is from the PENN State E-Wall.. http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_6z/f72.html Saw that this morning on my daily look around. Not sure what the Operational is smoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 All I know is if I do get another good 6 inches, which would actually be the most I have gotten this year, I could care less what happens the remainder of the season. I want to take my dune buggy out and have some fun in the snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Dawson, if you would be so kind.. Thoughts as to why the OP is out to lunch.. Thanks It's all in the initialization parameters that produced the model output. Each ensemble represents tweaks (both positive and negative) to the original data parameters that are fed into the "operational" run to account for any potential "error" data that was ingested into the operational run. Since pretty much every member shows a much wetter solution then its safe to say that the Operational run is not as accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 06z GFS ensemble mean is now wetter than before with most members still pointing to a significant snow event for the SE. Sorry to burst any bubbles, but the above map contains precip from today and tomorrow. Here is the Thursday system: As stated though, the individual members are wetter than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It's all in the initialization parameters that produced the model output. Each ensemble represents tweaks (both positive and negative) to the original data parameters that are fed into the "operational" run to account for any potential "error" data that was ingested into the operational run. Which means that any minor change in that shortwave creates such drastic differences so I like our chances! All eyes are now on the 12z NAM it's out to 30 and looks relativly the same on the surface except a little bit slower with that NE storm...which leads to the next question. What do we want to see on the 12z NAM? I suppose that storm doesn't need to wrap up super strong so as to not force the northern energy far enough south to sheer out our storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Which means that any minor change in that shortwave creates such drastic differences so I like our chances! All eyes are now on the 12z NAM it's out to 30 and looks relativly the same on the surface except a little bit slower with that NE storm...which leads to the next question. What do we want to see on the 12z NAM? I suppose that storm doesn't need to wrap up super strong so as to not force the northern energy far enough south to sheer out our storm? I just want to see the NAM hold serve with the strength of the 500mb shortwave and keep that nice little kink at 500mb that it showed in OK at hour 60 from the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z NAM @ 30HR looking very healthy with vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Thru 39hour (3z Wed) 500mb looks spot with the 6z run pretty much everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I just want to see the NAM hold serve with the strength of the 500mb shortwave and keep that nice little kink at 500mb that it showed in OK at hour 60 from the 6z run. Looks stronger out to 42 out west but who knows what will happen on down the line. Certainly the stronger the better our chances become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 At 42hour out Shortwave is just a smidge further SW....just barely....but same strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 At 42hour out Shortwave is just a smidge further SW....just barely....but same strength. But way stronger than the GFS. You would think the NAM at 42 should be somewhat reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Gotta check out for 15 minutes....sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 At 42hour out Shortwave is just a smidge further SW....just barely....but same strength. Gotcha...looked a little stronger to me but it's probably just in it's location..always tough to tell the intensity for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 out to 54 the NAM is a tad weaker...let's see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 @54 HR on the NAM, 1013mb LP showing up off the TX coast. Snowing like crazy in northern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 @57 the 12z NAM is just a hair south of the 6z but looks a little more robust with moisture up in the Arkansas area also looks like more moisture is building in the Houston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 @60 HR, 1012mb LP right over New Orleans, LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That is some cold cold air in western Texas...brrr..bring it our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 @60 looks like same placement as the 06Z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 But way stronger than the GFS. You would think the NAM at 42 should be somewhat reliable. Totally agree...that's why I won't get my hopes up until the GFS come around....if it comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 @ 66 HR, most likely snowing into northern MS and AL. 1011mb LP off Mobile, AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yea I would like to see all the models in agreement, but would not be surprised if come late night and tomorrow morning, the GFS really starts jumping back on board if this holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 @57 the 12z NAM is just a hair south of the 6z but looks a little more robust with moisture up in the Arkansas area also looks like more moisture is building in the Houston area. Where did the second low off SC coast come from Burger, or have I missed something? at hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Where did the second low off SC coast come from Burger, or have I missed something? at hour 66 Yeah, we got 2 lows, one off the NC coast and another over the FL panhandle. QPF is still fairly meager, not feeling it right now. Hopefully we will see some more changes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah, we got 2 lows, one off the NC coast and another over the FL panhandle. QPF is still fairly meager, not feeling it right now. Hopefully we will see some more changes tonight. Yeah, at 72 they are both at 1012mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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