phil882 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I saw .10" here. Usually when its that, its virga and the trends can't be denied here. We actually get more qpf from tomorrows event than the Thurs. one I think, but I didn't calculate exactly. I won't be suprised to see it partly cloudy here Thursday actually with zilch. Our amounts in KAVL actually went up in comparison to the 12z run of the Euro. Either way though, its only a minor event for most of North Carolina, and maybe just a little more impressive for SC and GA. While its not yet time to lose hope for a more significant solution, expecting a Christmas Day storm like comeback is not likely in the cards. Recent runs have really emphasized the power of the Polar Vortex, something that is common in La Nina's, which doesn't really allow any sort of phasing between the two jet streams, just suppression. Unfortunately, it looks like we have settled into a more La Nina like pattern the past few weeks across the southeast, and as much as I want to hope this thing is coming back north, the current pattern suggests otherwise. This is different from what we experienced during December and January, as we had a very -AO which tended to support a weak PV, one that could easily give way to southern stream shortwaves. However, with the current +AO regime, when the PV exerts its dominance, it likely will get its way. However, it wouldn't take much of a tweak in the shortwave to allow more phasing and a solution that allows more precipitation. There is a very fine line between the Polar Vortex being too strong and suppressing everything, and then the Polar Vortex being too far north, and the storm comes inland and gives most of us rain. Threading the needle is very difficult to do in the southeast, and thats why we typically don't see major snowstorms. That is likely why we have gone from almost an inland solution to something that is nearly nothing in about two days time. However, keep in mind we are still 3-4 days out, and we could just as easily see a similar adjustment back in the next 2 days. The trend just needs to start now. One sign of good news that I don't think many people saw here was the 00 GFS Ensembles. The mean precipitation actually increased in general from 18z to 00z. Just take a look at the individual 00z GFS Ensembles. Not one member is as weak as the 00z GFS. Normally ensembles are lower resolution models and shouldn't pick up on surface features as well as the operational run. Yet every member is deeper and more intense that the operational run, some even significantly so. Thus, its not time to lose hope quite yet, as the models could still trend back with ease this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It's almost a dick move to say for NC/TN/VA but this is the time of year that these storms tend to get SC/GA real good in areas that normally don't see much wintry. I will buy the low tracking really far South this time of year just because of this fact. Look at the past storms. Not saying this will be anything like them snow total wise, but feb 1973 and feb 2010 along with a few others come to mind. edit: and if the month doesn't make sense climo wise, the date range should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM is coming in even wetter this run than the last for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM is coming in even wetter this run than the last for my area. Indeed... actually looks like quite an event across the Carolinas. The NAM highlights how just a small change in the 500mb field can have pretty major chances to the QPF output. The past three runs of the NAM have trended the 540dm contour at 500mb further south at the apex of the s/w. Thus, it makes sense that its showing higher QPF amounts, as its keeping a strong shortwave swinging through our region. Considering this, plus the fact that the GFS was all alone compared to the ensembles, and I think this winter storm threat is not dead by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GSP upped my pops to 70% and is sounding fairly bullish: DEEP LIFT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA AS THE H5 TO H7 TROF RIPPLES ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6Z TO 12Z...PROVIDING THE BEST SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS DURING THE NIGHT...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO FALL AS PURE SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GSP upped my pops to 70% and is sounding fairly bullish: DEEP LIFT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA AS THE H5 TO H7 TROF RIPPLES ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6Z TO 12Z...PROVIDING THE BEST SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS DURING THE NIGHT...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO FALL AS PURE SNOW. Well RAH has decided Ill see partly cloudy skies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The fact that every single GFS ensemble member (0z) has a storm has to mean something. I wonder what they are all seeing that the OP run isnt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Indeed... actually looks like quite an event across the Carolinas. The NAM highlights how just a small change in the 500mb field can have pretty major chances to the QPF output. The past three runs of the NAM have trended the 540dm contour at 500mb further south at the apex of the s/w. Thus, it makes sense that its showing higher QPF amounts, as its keeping a strong shortwave swinging through our region. Considering this, plus the fact that the GFS was all alone compared to the ensembles, and I think this winter storm threat is not dead by any means. The NAM would probably be a good 4-8 from about CLT to AVL to GSP if it had one more 6 hour panel you would think (who knows though?). The big question is going to be is the NAM simply out to lunch that far off? We will find out tonight when that s/w is actually sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The fact that every single GFS ensemble member (0z) has a storm has to mean something. I wonder what they are all seeing that the OP run isnt? 6z ENS is wetter as well, albeit still a marginal event for most. Tonight and tomorrow will be the key days for the models to come into agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 just glancing at meteostar output it would appear that the 6z GFS is delaying the warm up next week. At the very least it is saying the warm is not going to be as much. I'm not sure if this is a product of our Thursday storm being being so far south or what. 6z also has the NAO tanking around the 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 6z ENS is wetter as well, albeit still a marginal event for most. Tonight and tomorrow will be the key days for the models to come into agreement. And the NAM has .5" just to the north/northwest of ATL while the GFS OP run has literally nothing for here. It's going to be a fun couple days, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It ain't over yet folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It ain't over yet folks. I'm waiting to hear something positive about this event. I think everyone is starting to throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It ain't over yet folks. I know, JB said, it will be a major event from Texas to the coastal Carolinas You should do fine with this, But not up here...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The models in general are consistent with 1-2 inches for NGA less in S NC and the jackpot is found in the north ATL burbs around 3 inches. The only CONSISTENCY the models have shown this winter is how CONFUSED they are with this storm and every storm since NOV-DEC. The QPF is the problem with this storm. This storm will double QPF amounts currently shown at this time by the 4-5 models most track. So I am expecting to see as of NOW around 3-5 for roughly ATL -NGA 2-4 S NC. Could easily see totals an inch or two higher than this. We shall see. OK not one response to correct my view nor a single response to agree. "COME ON MAN"! I totally feel the post above is spot on. Challenge my theory and explain why your right and i am wrong. Way to many here are spoiled little whiney brat's due to the above norm snowfalls last two years. Reality check might help :weenie: plural Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 And the NAM has .5" just to the north/northwest of ATL while the GFS OP run has literally nothing for here. It's going to be a fun couple days, haha. Agreed. It looks to me like the 6Z nam has ~4-4.5" of snow for the N ATL burbs to AHN and then a sharp decline to almost no accumulating snow near the ATL airport due to too warm 850's. This suggests that there is very little room to play with as far as too north track/too warm vs. stronger low and more mositure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 OK not one response to correct my view nor a single response to agree. "COME ON MAN"! I totally feel the post above is spot on. Challenge my theory and explain why your right and i am wrong. Way to many here are spoiled little whiney brat's due to the above norm snowfalls last two years. Reality check might help :weenie: plural Ok, I'll bite. You could be right, or you could be wrong. The problem with your theory is that you are relying on past model trends from previous storms this year. That means your forecast reasoning is based on modelology and not meteorology. Show me, meteorologicaly, why it's going to be wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 OK not one response to correct my view nor a single response to agree. "COME ON MAN"! I totally feel the post above is spot on. Challenge my theory and explain why your right and i am wrong. Way to many here are spoiled little whiney brat's due to the above norm snowfalls last two years. Reality check might help :weenie: plural lol wut? Just because no one responds it doesn't mean they didn't read it. We are all just in stand by mode. In fact I think most have been echoing what you've been saying. A wetter NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 OK not one response to correct my view nor a single response to agree. "COME ON MAN"! I totally feel the post above is spot on. Challenge my theory and explain why your right and i am wrong. Way to many here are spoiled little whiney brat's due to the above norm snowfalls last two years. Reality check might help :weenie: plural No need to get all worked up! Personally I don't see where you're getting that qpf should double. Ok the gfs may be too dry, by you can't just disregard the rest of the models and wishcast higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm hugging the NAM. It WILL verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm hugging the NAM. It WILL verify My wishcast theory is because it is higher resolution it's able to figure out the short wave is much stronger early on and thus you get that....or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm hugging the NAM. It WILL verify I'm right there with you. Group Hug!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 06z GFS ensemble mean is now wetter than before with most members still pointing to a significant snow event for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wasn't mid-February's event last year a similar situation, the LP was getting squashed to Cuba and then about 72 hours in came back north, hopefully something simliar will happen here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I know, JB said, it will be a major event from Texas to the coastal Carolinas You should do fine with this, But not up here...... If I had a dollar for everytime you've said that this year and ended up with more snow than me... I'd have $3. 06z GFS ensemble mean is now wetter than before with most members still pointing to a significant snow event for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 If I'm not mistaken, the shortwave we're interested in is just now entering the continent. Right now the general track trend is good, cold air appears to be good, we'll see how the QPF plays out. When you're talking about snow, a few 1/10's of precip makes a big difference and that's still up in the air. And, if last storms are any indication, it's always a NOWCast event when it comes right down to it anyway. It's rarely ever in concrete for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 If I'm not mistaken, the shortwave we're interested in is just now entering the continent. Right now the general track trend is good, cold air appears to be good, we'll see how the QPF plays out. When you're talking about snow, a few 1/10's of precip makes a big difference and that's still up in the air. And, if last storms are any indication, it's always a NOWCast event when it comes right down to it anyway. It's rarely ever in concrete for us. Yep as Brandon mentioned tonight's and tomorrow afternoon runs are going to probably get the best handle on it. Of course we all want to buy into the NAM and if it's correct someone is going to win big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 OK not one response to correct my view nor a single response to agree. "COME ON MAN"! I totally feel the post above is spot on. Challenge my theory and explain why your right and i am wrong. Way to many here are spoiled little whiney brat's due to the above norm snowfalls last two years. Reality check might help :weenie: plural I'll agree on the consistency part but the QPF double part is a wait and see. Now with our big January storm we were dealing with a similar situation where we had a shortwave moving from TX to the SE and was progged to get sheared out along the way. The models trended drier as we got within the 3 day period and if my memory serves me correctly the EURO almost lost the storm in this time frame. Also if I remember correctly the NAM was the first to ramp up the QPF and the GFS followed within 24 hours. Typically the NAM is a "follower" and not a "leader". I'm not saying this will happen again but there are similarities. The big key difference with the NAM is that it keeps our southern shortwave more separated from the PV way up north which allows it to stay stronger longer. That is what we need to happen obviously. Now the 12z NAM is fixing to roll so we shall see if the NAM holds serve but history says the NAM will be a follower. Now the good thing for MBY is that I'm in the jackpot for QPF for GA with both the 6z NAM and the 6z GFS....well at least no one in GA gets more QPF than me with the 6z GFS which is ZIP. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Now the good thing for MBY is that I'm in the jackpot for QPF for GA with both the 6z NAM and the 6z GFS....well at least no one in GA gets more QPF than me with the 6z GFS which is ZIP. LOL Don't be takin' all our snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Don't be takin' all our snow! I'm getting greedy because in the last three snow events for us people to my south have gotten more than me way up here in the mountains..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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