superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I don't think he was saying that was going to happen, I think he was saying the models lost that storm around day 4 then picked it back up later. Exactly. It looked like we were going to get next-to-nothing from that storm just 24-48 hours before the storm started and we had HPC throwing the models out 24 hours before as HPC continued to deny that the storm was going to throw moisture into the Piedmont/foothills. Anyways, here is the 0z GFS Ensemble Mean. It is much wetter than the operational GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 O.K. I've been watching these models and checking the bufkit gfs3 for my regions occasionally. Yes, the last two runs are pretty much showing everything drying out. But, there's still something there, and in my neck of the woods it's still snow growth area in the right places of the atmosphere. Anyhow, I wish everyone the best with the fluffy stuff. I am glad to see it go OTS so the NE folks don't have any more roof collapses. I know it's not very scientific, but I've been feelin' this one as the season end for two weeks or so. The timing seems o.k. and if the precip is still around by the time it rolls around n. GA n. SC and NC should see a bit of fluffy white. Good snowball stuff at least. So save 'em up and come to CH and try to pelt me. Ha! Accu guys seem to be resting up to deal with this trend this week. If you see an owl fly overhead or birds and squirrels gorging themselves on Tuesday, count on snow where you are. Best fluffy wishes from the Southern part of Heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Agreed, but the fact that the CMC has now joined the "what storm?"parade, I have that sick feeling in my tummy. New GFS ensembles are wetter than the Op which is good,but they are drier than previous runs. My feeling is we have two scenarios: a total bust with flurries/nothing-or maybe a 1-2" storm. The chance of more than that is getting less with each passing run. Even if the Euro has precip, if it is less than the 12Z run, that is another small step in the wrong direction. Hope is hanging by a increasingly more slender thread. I agree. the overall trends are weaker, and further south once you get east of the Miss. River. I don't recall many events here where a system topped a PNA ridge and gave a significant snow...its probably about equivalent as clippers as far as rarity. Normally, they would hook up west of the Apps or wouldn't have enough cold air here to make snow (get rain instead). Normally how this area gets snow is from split flow, or a pure southern stream system, a strong upper low passing through, or in even rarer cases , a complete cutoff or a strong clipper taking a really far south track and tapping the Gulf .The Jan. 2003 fluke was just that, a strange perfect meso setup. Its one of the reasons snow average totals around here are around 5 to 7" per year. When we do get a better storm track and more moisture, such as in last years numerous Miller A's and El Nino southern systems, 9 out of 10 times it will warm up outside of the mountains. We've been really lucky this season with the help of the EPO and neg NAO, those trumped what would have been a boring Winter I'm sure. If the NAO rebuilds in a few weeks, there will be another shot somewhere in the South I think. If not, then about the only way snow will fall again outside the mtns will probably be from a strong amplification or a cutoff, not talking about post frontal upslope. With how wild the strong amp. has been this Winter, I wouldn't rule out another period in late Feb or March where the storm track gets severely displaced again. I'd love to see the Euro hold its ground or even strengthen some up here, but I think it's unlikely since there's probably too much confluence in the Northeast and the pattern is breaking down in the Pacific starting in a couple of days. But it is a very tight rope, and the models may not catch subtle shifts til the very last second on this. I could see the 5H system healthier and stout all the way across the South before exiting the Southeast coast, likewise I could see it totally fizzle crossing the Miss. River area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I have some bad news for snow lovers. The 0Z JMA closely resembles the 0Z gfs as opposed to the 0z Ukie. So, storm cancel probable per JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I have some bad news for snow lovers. The 0Z JMA closely resembles the 0Z gfs as opposed to the 0z Ukie. So, storm cancel probable per JMA. No disrespect meant, but that doesn't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I agree. the overall trends are weaker, and further south once you get east of the Miss. River. I don't recall many events here where a system topped a PNA ridge and gave a significant snow...its probably about equivalent as clippers as far as rarity. Normally, they would hook up west of the Apps or wouldn't have enough cold air here make snow (get rain instead). Normally how this area gets snow is from split flow, or a pure southern stream system, a strong upper low passing through, or in even rarer cases , a complete cutoff or a strong clipper taking a really far south track and tapping the Gulf .The Jan. 2003 fluke was just that, a strange perfect meso setup. Its one of the reasons snow average totals around here are around 5 to 7" per year. When we do get a better storm track and more moisture, such as in last years numerous Miller A's and El Nino southern systems, 9 out of 10 times it will warm up outside of the mountains. We've been really lucky this season with the help of the EPO and neg NAO, those trumped what would have been a boring Winter I'm sure. If the NAO rebuilds in a few weeks, there will be another shot somewhere in the South I think. If not, then about the only way snow will fall again outside the mtns will probably be from a strong amplification or a cutoff, not talking about post frontal upslope. With how wild the strong amp. has been this Winter, I wouldn't rule out another period in late Feb or March where the storm track gets I'd love to see the Euro hold its ground or even strengthen some up here, but I think it's unlikely since there's probably too much confluence in the Northeast and the pattern is breaking down in the Pacific starting in a couple of days. But it is a very tight rope, and the models may not catch subtle shifts til the very last second on this. I could see the 5H system healthier and stout all the way across the South before exiting the Southeast coast, likewise I could see it totally fizzle crossing the Miss. River area. Great post Robert! I guess we do not have much to hang our hat unless the 5H is healthier/stronger. Looking at tomorrows system, it looks like there is potential for more precip (less cold though-of course). It will be interesting to see the obs from that system and how it correlates for Wed/Thurs. Thanks for your input! I am greasing the fishing reels up next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 0z Euro 54 hour suggests it will be more supressed/colder/weaker vs. 12Z Euro. Let's see if that really is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 0z Euro 54 hour suggests it will be more supressed/colder/weaker vs. 0Z. Let's see if that really is the case. 0Z vs 0Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I have some bad news for snow lovers. The 0Z JMA closely resembles the 0Z gfs as opposed to the 0z Ukie. So, storm cancel probable per JMA. I still have a "free weenie ticket" in my possession and it's about to expire, so here goes...what does the NOGAPs say?? LOL. wishing central Ga and points south luck on this one!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 0Z vs 0Z? ooops. vs. 12Z Euro. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I still have a "free weenie ticket" in my possession and it's about to expire, so here goes...what does the NOGAPs say?? LOL. wishing central Ga and points south luck on this one!!! lol..I didn't even check that joke of a model this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The zero line at 850 at 72 hours almost touches northwest Florida. When its that cold, that far south, I know NC has little to no chance with getting moisture up here. At 78, theres a weak low just south of New Orleans. The snow is going to extend extremely far south on this in La, Ms, Ala and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 snowing N/C MS hour 72-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hour 78-84 interval; snow N/C AL, NW and C GA, E/C SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 At 84, the low is a couple hunred miles west/nw of Tampa. TN and NC are trace amounts. Coastal SC and southern coastal NC could get more sig. snow amounts. The northern part of GA and the western and central Carolinas are skipped. Good luck to the folks still in the running. The fat lady sung here. On to a warm up next weekend and hopefully some sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hour 78-84 interval; snow N/C AL, NW and C GA, C SC. Yes,but qpf a bit lighter- less than .25" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yes,but qpf a bit lighter- less than .25" here. Lighter than 12Z Euro's 2-3" of snow. But still ~1.5" N burbs to 2" Tony snow. Could be ~3" in inland E SC. MYR close to some S. CHS not far from S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 At 84, the low is a couple hunred miles west/nw of Tampa. TN and NC are trace amounts. Coastal SC and southern coastal NC could get more sig. snow amounts. The northern part of GA and the western and central Carolinas are skipped. Good luck to the folks still in the running. The fat lady sung here. On to a warm up next weekend and hopefully some sunny skies. What I am seeing is a bit more than .1 for even northern NC and SC- not really "trace amounts" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 the low track is almost far enough south to get part of the Florida panhandle in snow Thursday morning. Wouldn't that be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 What I am seeing is a bit more than .1 for even northern NC and SC- not really "trace amounts" I saw .10" here. Usually when its that, its virga and the trends can't be denied here. We actually get more qpf from tomorrows event than the Thurs. one I think, but I didn't calculate exactly. I won't be suprised to see it partly cloudy here Thursday actually with zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 At 84, the low is a couple hunred miles west/nw of Tampa. TN and NC are trace amounts. Coastal SC and southern coastal NC could get more sig. snow amounts. The northern part of GA and the western and central Carolinas are skipped. Good luck to the folks still in the running. The fat lady sung here. On to a warm up next weekend and hopefully some sunny skie . Looks like the "Triangle" holds again Robert! One quick last gasp question...ha the main player surfaced yet, to where this can be properly sampled, regarding the Weds/Thurs system? If not, then maybe we can still see a glimmer of hope for a trend back to at least a dusting this way? Weenie grasping at straws I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 the low track is almost far enough south to get part of the Florida panhandle in snow Thursday morning. Wouldn't that be something. Robert, There's something about 2/8-15 that has caused it to have had the highest frequency (a whopping 7 in 8 days) by a good margin of 2"+ snowstorms for CHS and/or SAV since 1726. It wouldn't at all surprise me if this climo active period could be extended to the FL panhandle. 2"+ snows (Most active period bolded) for CHS and/or SAV: Dec: 6, 15, 17, 22-24, 27, 30-31 Jan: 9-11, 13, 25-6, 30 Feb: 8, 9-10, 11, 12, 13, 14-15, 15, 21-22, 25, 28 Mar. : 3-4, 4, 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawkbaseball#6 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 We're going to get really cold in NC if this comes to frution on Thu/Fri/Sat. I'm not totally bought in on this system going that far south. I see the storm coming out of the Pacific N/W currently holding stronger and interacting more than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 00z UKMet has more amplitude with the wave at 72 compared to the other models. GGEM has the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 0z Euro is even more suppressed. Not going to panic, though. I'm still holding out on 2-4" here in the Triangle, which I think is very much within the realm of possibility. It may not happen, but the ensembles seem to indicate that this thing will eventually come further north and given seasonal trends, I expect some NW correction. But I could be wrong; who really knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Folks, Not at all to downplay the potential 2/10 event, but I would like to shift the 0Z Euro run's attention temporarily to 2/11 (hours 102-120). After the initial shortwave/sfc low pass by early on 2/10, a 2nd sfc low forms off the SE US coast on 2/11. This actually spits back some light qpf along the SC coast, most likely in the form of a cold rain. It isn't so much what is shown that is so interesting since it is so light/minor. It is more that it may mean that there is even more potential should this develop further than expected. This was also on the prior Euro. This could be most interesting for especially the NC coast but perhaps further SW also. Any opinions? I've yet to see anyone mention this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well, and the gfs was throwing another chance on the 15th, and a look at meteostar didn't show any real heat either..one high near 60 for the whole run. Heck, I was over 70 last weekend. I'm not convinced of anything at this point, except that nothing seems agreed upon. I'm real interested in how cold this shot coming tomorrow turns out to be. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 00z UKMet has more amplitude with the wave at 72 compared to the other models. By the way, the 96 hour Ukie suggests that that N GOM Miller A low at hour 72 moves in very weak fashion to east of the CENTRAL FL coast...so deeply supressed fwiw. However, the Ukie may have a bias of too much supression. Also, the 120 hour Ukie map has a 2nd sfc low forming off the SE coast similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Folks, Not at all to downplay the potential 2/10 event, but I would like to shift the 0Z Euro run's attention temporarily to 2/11 (hours 102-120). After the initial shortwave/sfc low pass by early on 2/10, a 2nd sfc low forms off the SE US coast on 2/11. This actually spits back some light qpf along the SC coast, most likely in the form of a cold rain. It isn't so much what is shown that is so interesting since it is so light/minor. It is more that it may mean that there is even more potential should this develop further than expected. This was also on the prior Euro. This could be most interesting for especially the NC coast but perhaps further SW also. Any opinions? I've yet to see anyone mention this one. The UKMet also had a hint of this secondary coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The UKMet also had a hint of this secondary coastal low. Thanks, I saw that and I had already mentioned it above your post. Edit: the 0Z CDN and its ensemble mean also hint at this second SE coastal wave for 2/11. Nighty night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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