griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The GFS continues to look horrible, if you want wintry wx. Does anyone have anything on the Ukie, GGEM, etc.? Curious to see how these other models are lining up with the GFS? Ugh...I am hoping for one more good shot at wintry wx before the warmup. Either way, I am not cliff diving, unless this scenario (0Z GFS) is still showing up on Tuesday. What an awesome Super Bowl huh? Nothing yet on the UKMet. GGEM is out to hr12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 wierd to see the other models trend towards the GFS and not the other way around. All these twists and turns sure make it fun to see unfold though. Sure would be boring if we knew 3-5 days out already what was gonna happen. Half the fun is just watching the models come up with a solution. whether we win or lose it sure has been a fun winter to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Nothing yet on the UKMet. GGEM is out to hr12 Thank you Grit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It would be a rare win for the GFS- just do not like it trending the wrong direction. Not giving up yet- but getting more worried certainly. If the Euro and CMC are drier, that may be the ball game. However, if the king doesn't abdicate with its solid 2-3" for ATL, ATL will remain very much in the ballgame in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 If the GFS is *this* wrong with the strength and QPF for the coming system, NOAA just needs to kill it and replace it. No excuse for being this different from other models only 3 days away. Let's see as the others roll out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I called this 2 days ago when the models were actually saying everyone was in good shape for a good storm. There just isn't anything to even make this storm grow, it just dies along with winter. Who would have thought Jan 10th might have been the last accum snow in NC? I sure didn't but that's certainly how it's looking. I guess I'll take some sprinkles/flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I called this 2 days ago when the models were actually saying everyone was in good shape for a good storm. There just isn't anything to even make this storm grow, it just dies along with winter. Who would have thought Jan 10th might have been the last accum snow in NC? I sure didn't but that's certainly how it's looking. I guess I'll take some sprinkles/flurries I seriously doubt you'll get Sprinkles Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 HPC is discounting the 00z GFS as the big outlier. HPC:PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE... 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWFS THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE SHARPER ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z UKMET. BY 00Z/10... THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z UKMET BECOME QUICKER WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR LOUISIANA COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE 00Z GFS SHEARS THE VORT MAX OUT RATHER QUICKLY COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING WOULD FAVOR THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND WILL STICK WITH THAT AT THIS TIME THOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I called this 2 days ago when the models were actually saying everyone was in good shape for a good storm. There just isn't anything to even make this storm grow, it just dies along with winter. Who would have thought Jan 10th might have been the last accum snow in NC? I sure didn't but that's certainly how it's looking. I guess I'll take some sprinkles/flurries Who knew that winter doesn't end until March 21st? I sure did. By the way, this is my first post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Who knew that winter doesn't end until March 21st? I sure did. By the way, this is my first post! But as you know, meteorological winter ends in 22 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 But as you know, meteorological winter ends in 22 days LOL. Snow can fall in the South as late as April. It has happened before, and it could happen again. Winter is far from over, Imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 LOL. Snow can fall in the South as late as April. It has happened before, and it could happen again. Winter is far from over, Imo. Sure it can, but with the days rapidly lengthening and sun angle getting increasingly higher each day, it makes it harder to get a good accumulating snow especially if it falls during the middle of the day. I've seen it snow heavily for hours in late Feb and March during the middle of the day and have very hard time sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Here's the UKMet at 72. Hard to be exact, but looks to me like the low would track a bit off the coast of LA to around Jacksonville, then NNE from there, which would be slightly north of its last 2 runs. Sfc low is on the weak side, but overall, this looks decent to me, but not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Bad bad news from the GFS- trends continue to get worse. The fat lady is warming up...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 dont bother looking at the canadian, its worse than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 dont bother looking at the canadian, its worse than the GFS Storm has vanished on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The UKMET is far south with its surface low. The RH is just south of TN and NC, so the Dixie states get snow, and the 0 line is well south of I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 lolz...why? Wait until Tuesday to say that. I have seen enough models to see that this will not be a major storm for Asheville. Trends are killing the chances for major accumulations. 0Z GFS 1016mb is like a weak clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 haha just when I discuss the failures of the GFS does the Canadian fall in line with it. Oh man. If the GFS leads the way on this one, what a sad day in modeling history and a win versus the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I have seen enough models to see that this will not be a major storm for Asheville. Trends are killing the chances for major accumulations. 0Z GFS 1016mb is like a weak clipper. Good thing you weren't around for the Christmas Storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Storm has vanished on the GGEM This even has me surprised. I've seen a lot of storms become weaker or just vanish as we get closer to the event but I don't ever remember going from 1.5" of qpf to next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The UKMET is far south with its surface low. The RH is just south of TN and NC, so the Dixie states get snow, and the 0 line is well south of I-20. That's a healthy RH field on the UKMet. Looks good for BHM-ATL. Give it the normal NW trend the next few days and others get in the game. GGEM was a disaster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sure it can, but with the days rapidly lengthening and sun angle getting increasingly higher each day, it makes it harder to get a good accumulating snow especially if it falls during the middle of the day. I've seen it snow heavily for hours in late Feb and March during the middle of the day and have very hard time sticking. Yeah, but this is the year, the golden year, when against climo and history, the Atlanta area got a snow storm on Christmas day. Anything is possible this year. I'm expecting the return of the March triple phaser, and maybe some flurries in June to top things off, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sure it can, but with the days rapidly lengthening and sun angle getting increasingly higher each day, it makes it harder to get a good accumulating snow especially if it falls during the middle of the day. I've seen it snow heavily for hours in late Feb and March during the middle of the day and have very hard time sticking. The heaviest and deepest snow I've ever been in occurred in Floyd County, VA the last week of April. Over 30 inches in 12 hours complete with thunder, exploding transformers and falling trees. The snow fell from 8am til 8pm and had no trouble at all covering wet ground and even large puddles in a very short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Good thing you weren't around for the Christmas Storm! I doubt anything like this this will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That's a healthy RH field on the UKMet. Looks good for BHM-ATL. Give it the normal NW trend the next few days and others get in the game. GGEM was a disaster though. Yep. The 850 mb 0C line is all the way down to CSG-MCN-south of Aug-south of CAE. IF there were to be some solid precip. generated after hour 72 (big if but quite possible since its 700 mb 90+% RH area is much more impressive than 0Z gfs and ukie has closed sfc low in Miller A position vs. none on 0Z gfs), which we'll never know for sure since qpf cuts off at hour 72 on Ukie, we could very well be looking at a very nice and rare several inch snowstorm through much of Central GA/SC! Stay tuned, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I doubt anything like this this will happen. I don't think he was saying that was going to happen, I think he was saying the models lost that storm around day 4 then picked it back up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yep. The 850 mb 0C line is all the way down to CSG-MCN-south of Aug-south of CAE. IF there were to be some solid precip. generated after hour 72 (big if but quite possible since its 700 mb 90+% RH area is much more impressive than 0Z gfs and ukie has closed sfc low in Miller A position vs. none on 0Z gfs), which we'll never know for sure since qpf cuts off at hour 72 on Ukie, we could very well be looking at a very nice and rare several inch snowstorm through much of Central GA/SC! Stay tuned, folks! Very much agreed. Got to remember those 3 and 5 day model verification numbers....Euro #1, UKMet #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Very much agreed. Got to remember those 3 and 5 day model verification numbers....Euro #1, UKMet #2 Agreed, but the fact that the CMC has now joined the "what storm?"parade, I have that sick feeling in my tummy. New GFS ensembles are wetter than the Op which is good,but they are drier than previous runs. My feeling is we have two scenarios: a total bust with flurries/nothing-or maybe a 1-2" storm. The chance of more than that is getting less with each passing run. Even if the Euro has precip, if it is less than the 12Z run, that is another small step in the wrong direction. Hope is hanging by a increasingly more slender thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Agreed, but the fact that the CMC has now joined the "what storm?"parade, I have that sick feeling in my tummy. New GFS ensembles are wetter than the Op which is good,but they are drier than previous runs. My feeling is we have two scenarios: a total bust with flurries/nothing-or maybe a 1-2" storm. The chance of more than that is getting less with each passing run. Even if the Euro has precip, if it is less than the 12Z run, that is another small step in the wrong direction. Hope is hanging by a increasingly more slender thread. No question that the storm vanishing scenario is on the table too if we can't get any amp in the wave. I still like the good cold look though. I'd rather take my chances around here with the precip rather than the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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