GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 This is a big **fwiw** since it is the late Nam, but the 0z nam literally gives Atl-ahn a MAJOR snowstorm with 3.5" on northside to 5" in Tony territory! Well, we can dream, can't we? Don't worry, I'm not about to believe this and continue to give Atl only a 5% chance at 4"+ as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The NAM is a major step in the right direction @84 snow is breaking out in N GA the upstate and into NC...looks like the upstate would be the big winner verbatim this run. Hmmm not sure about that, nam has all snow here. Close to half inch liquid with maybe another tenth or two based on composite imagery. Doesn't mean much of course but it's pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hmmm not sure about that, nam has all snow here. Close to half inch liquid with maybe another tenth or two based on composite imagery. Doesn't mean much of course but it's pretty to look at. Yea and the NAM probably isn't handling the temps right either as we saw with this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Can someone xplain what happens to our storm between hr 54-60 on the Nam.We have what looks to be a powerful storm brewing with a 1001 but next next run it goes to a 1009? Sorry, i meant 48-54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 This is a big **fwiw** since it is the late Nam, but the 0z nam literally gives Atl-ahn a MAJOR snowstorm with 3.5" on northside to 5" in Tony territory! Well, we can dream, can't we? Don't worry, I'm not about to believe this and continue to give Atl only a 5% chance at 4"+ as of now. Whatever happens, atlanta will somehow find a way to only get 50% to 75% of what everyone else in north ga gets. Yea and the NAM probably isn't handling the temps right either as we saw with this past storm. Well mid level dewpoints aren't nearly as low as with this past system just prior to precip onset so I don't expect to see the same thing we saw with this last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Whatever happens, atlanta will somehow find a way to only get 50% to 75% of what everyone else in north ga gets. Haha the airport got screwed during the Xmas storm and the Jan 10 storm while the city and points just north did really well. It's mainly a function of the airport being south of the city and the sig. snow line setting up right around I-20 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Haha the airport got screwed during the Xmas storm and the Jan 10 storm while the city and points just north did really well. It's mainly a function of the airport being south of the city and the sig. snow line setting up right around I-20 IMO. It is all a zen like balance. North side got screwed two years ago with the ULL, southside got screwed with the Christmas, and early Jan storms, now some balance seems in order, lol. Actually I don't mind being in the sweet spot days out. 10% chance you get screwed, 10% chance you get hit, 10% chance you get dry slotted, 60% chance it is somewhere in between, 10% chance you don't even get rain, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 YOU HOO, the ball game is over.Please feed me some technically difficult analysis to read before I go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Whatever happens, atlanta will somehow find a way to only get 50% to 75% of what everyone else in north ga gets. Well mid level dewpoints aren't nearly as low as with this past system just prior to precip onset so I don't expect to see the same thing we saw with this last one. What are you talking about? Downtown Atlanta did very well January 10th....4-7 inches with isolated spots of 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah, my sis in buckhead did well with about 4.5-5". She did so well that she hopes she has no more snow this winter lol. She was stuck for five days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 What are you talking about? Downtown Atlanta did very well January 10th....4-7 inches with isolated spots of 8 inches. I think the official total at the Atlanta airport was 4.4 inches. Lookouts point was the northern sections always seem to be higher amounts. In this case the northern burbs of Atlanta were in the 8" range if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 What are you talking about? Downtown Atlanta did very well January 10th....4-7 inches with isolated spots of 8 inches. He's talking about what ATL gets "officially"'out if the FFC. It's always less than anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 What are you talking about? Downtown Atlanta did very well January 10th....4-7 inches with isolated spots of 8 inches. It's just a generalization.......usually when North Ga gets a nice winter event, FFC is usually just a little south of the heavier precip, so the "official" tally is not representative of N. Ga. a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yup. not looking like a major winter storm for Asheville, NC now. I'm expecting light snow accumulations if any now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 No need to look at the GFS @84 it looks like the 18z weak and sheered out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The GFS totally fizzles the moisture. It never has much in Ok or Ark. , certainly nothing like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yup. not looking like a major winter storm for Asheville, NC now. I'm expecting light snow accumulations if any now. lolz...why? Wait until Tuesday to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The GFS totally fizzles the moisture. It never has much in Ok or Ark. , certainly nothing like the NAM. Yea the GFS is like, "what storm?" The Euro tonight should be entertaining...but I aint staying up to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I think the official total at the Atlanta airport was 4.4 inches. Lookouts point was the northern sections always seem to be higher amounts. In this case the northern burbs of Atlanta were in the 8" range if I'm not mistaken. Yes, 4.4 at the airport and a total of 5.9 for the season. I disagree with the northern sections always getting higher amounts though. I think in March 2009 the north and northwest burbs got far less than Atlanta and the same goes for January 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 What are you talking about? Downtown Atlanta did very well January 10th....4-7 inches with isolated spots of 8 inches. You prove my point. What I am talking about is the official report from the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The GFS totally fizzles the moisture. It never has much in Ok or Ark. , certainly nothing like the NAM. If this storm ends up being decent precip-wise, one has to really question ANY value in looking at the QPF fields on the GFS outside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Bad bad news from the GFS- trends continue to get worse. The fat lady is warming up...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I think the official total at the Atlanta airport was 4.4 inches. Lookouts point was the northern sections always seem to be higher amounts. In this case the northern burbs of Atlanta were in the 8" range if I'm not mistaken. 1) The northern sections often get more but they should often get more just from being further north. 2) N burbs got were mostly around the 6" mark, not 8". City got ~4.5-5": 3) There are exceptions. Examples: Airport got 5" in 1/1992 whereas I got no more than 2.5-3" on the northside then. Also, airport got close to 4" 3/1/2009 whereas some on northside had virtually nothing stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Bad bad news from the GFS- trends continue to get worse. The fat lady is warming up...... So, 0Z nam gives 3.5-5" while 0Z gfs gives nada. 12Z Euro gives 2-3". With no good consensus yet, I'm going to stick with the following chances for snow for Atlanta: No snow 30 % trace of snow 20% 0.1-1.0" 20% 1.1-2.0" 15% 2.1-4.0" 10% 4.1+" 5% So, I'd take the 12z Euro's 2-3" in a heartbeat as the odds are much higher that there'd be less, if any, snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Bad bad news from the GFS- trends continue to get worse. The fat lady is warming up...... lol..agreed..especially considering how great the gfs has been this year and last year with our winter storms. I think before dragging the fat lady away from the buffet table, it might be wise to see if the other models agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 1) The northern sections often get more but they should often get more just from being further north. 2) N burbs got were mostly around the 6" mark, not 8". City got ~4.5-5": 3) There are exceptions. Examples: Airport got 5" in 1/1992 whereas I got no more than 2.5-3" on the northside then. Also, airport got close to 4" 3/1/2009 whereas some on northside had virtually nothing stick. Thanks Larry...The 8" was coming from a family member that lives in Marietta so it was definitely not a official report... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 lol..agreed..especially considering how great the gfs has been this year and last year with our winter storms. I think before dragging the fat lady away from the buffet table, it might be wise to see if the other models agree with it. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The GFS continues to look horrible, if you want wintry wx. Does anyone have anything on the Ukie, GGEM, etc.? Curious to see how these other models are lining up with the GFS? Ugh...I am hoping for one more good shot at wintry wx before the warmup. Either way, I am not cliff diving, unless this scenario (0Z GFS) is still showing up on Tuesday. What an awesome Super Bowl huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 lol..agreed..especially considering how great the gfs has been this year and last year with our winter storms. I think before dragging the fat lady away from the buffet table, it might be wise to see if the other models agree with it. It would be a rare win for the GFS- just do not like it trending the wrong direction. Not giving up yet- but getting more worried certainly. If the Euro and CMC are drier, that may be the ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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