Suncat Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The region along the central piedmont of NC is also the area where the state is experiencing driest conditions. It would fit the current precipitation pattern that next week's event will drop the lightest amount of rain/snow in that same region. The earlier model output showing a foot or more of snow were just too great and the current model outputs for precipitation amounts are more reasonable. There may be some snow in central NC, but it will be light and short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is weaker and drier with a similar track to earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 don't see how BMX can write this off with 4 days out, i'm surprised they don't say this needs to be watched, tomorrow trends are back in most of the southeast favor. Reading the AFD's from Birmingham and Huntsville is rather humorous. HSV relying on Euro ensembles while BMX saying it's going to be a weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 really don't want it to look good right now, come tuesday night and wednesday we want it to look good and still think it will trend back to a decent storm. How has it trended really pitful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm not sure why there's so much negativity in here. There's no need to hang your hat on every model run, you'll drive yourselves to madness. Maybe you should do yourselves a favor and take a break from watching models for 36-48 hours while things fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The region along the central piedmont of NC is also the area where the state is experiencing driest conditions. It would fit the current precipitation pattern that next week's event will drop the lightest amount of rain/snow in that same region. The earlier model output showing a foot or more of snow were just too great and the current model outputs for precipitation amounts are more reasonable. There may be some snow in central NC, but it will be light and short lived. That's a rather bold statement. I wouldn't bank on anything at this stage. I have seen all too often a storm go from a supressed and weak non-event to a warning critera event just 24 hours out. One thing that seems to be a given right now is the degree of cold air. That is usually our biggest problem. As far as precip goes, I would give this system a 60%-70% chance of trending stronger and wetter with time. The question is....... how much? Also, judging from the GFS/Euro mean, I believe the south trend is over. That also raises the question of how far north will this thing get as we approach verification time? We won't have a clear picture until we know how far the vort is going to dig and how strong the confluence is going to be. That may not be settled until Tuesday or early Wednesday. Bottom line..........there is no way you can write this one off just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z members, op top left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 moisture doesn't look that bad on these, better than nothing still think trends will come back 18z members, op top left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z members, op top left Don't look now, there are people climbing back up the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z members, op top left Actually I kinda like were we sit, this is a great setup at least for us in the east. Cold looks good enough and with around .40-.50" of QPF we could see a decent 4-6" hit depending on ratios. Real question is gonna be QPF, that .75-1" mark isnt all that far away and another .30-50" would be the difference between a decent hit and a epic hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 with that extra .3-.5 comes warmer temps however downeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 DGEX is suppressed and dampens out. It gives Tenn. an inch or 2 but nothing to GA, NC or SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Note the HPC kept the wetter numbers in there QPF forecast. I think they are also leaning more toward the Ensembles. agree though def. No NW trending Ohio Valley Running system here. At this point I think most people will see around .25-.50 with good ratios a good 3-6 inch swath in a large area possible around the Tenn. Valley and somewhere in there will probably be a smaller area of 4-8 or so. I am looking for some improvement in QPF to really get going by the 12z Runs tomorrow. This should be enough time for everything to be sampled and the models to start getting a good handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Something I've noticed is the 2m temps are terrible for the RDU area when a lot of the heavier precip moves in. The models have shown the heavier precip (if you can call it that now) moving into our area in the middle of the afternoon which is the worst time. 850's look good but 2m temps look warm. Without the strong system the euro was showing the other day our temps just might not be cold enough to support snow. I'm not cliff diving here, I'm just discussing a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 will Y'all quit watching football, and get back to the weather.I need to be entertained by model discos and I need Y'all to interperet them for me. Ha sorry I am at party number 2 at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Something I've noticed is the 2m temps are terrible for the RDU area when a lot of the heavier precip moves in. The models have shown the heavier precip (if you can call it that now) moving into our area in the middle of the afternoon which is the worst time. 850's look good but 2m temps look warm. Without the strong system the euro was showing the other day our temps just might not be cold enough to support snow. I'm not cliff diving here, I'm just discussing a concern. I'm of the opinion that we see a NW correction as this thing gets closer, so I'm not going to worry about 2m temps just yet. However, if they still look to be a problem in a couple days, then it is time to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Something I've noticed is the 2m temps are terrible for the RDU area when a lot of the heavier precip moves in. The models have shown the heavier precip (if you can call it that now) moving into our area in the middle of the afternoon which is the worst time. 850's look good but 2m temps look warm. Without the strong system the euro was showing the other day our temps just might not be cold enough to support snow. I'm not cliff diving here, I'm just discussing a concern. One must ALWAYS worry about temps for snow around here...surface, boundary layer, mid-layers...everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm of the opinion that we see a NW correction as this thing gets closer, so I'm not going to worry about 2m temps just yet. However, if they still look to be a problem in a couple days, then it is time to worry. I agree this could trend NW in the next couple of days but if it's just a weak sfc low off the coast I think our temps will still be to warm. The correction NW will bring in more precip and we can hope for some dynamic cooling but I don't know if that will be enough. On the 12z euro yesterday it was a deepening storm and was drawing some cold air in but the gfs has yet to show this solution. On several of the gfs runs it shows us starting as some flurries or light snow but by the time the heavier precip moves in, our 2m temps are to warm. Just something to pay attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Isn't the current system in TX an LA moving alot slower than anticipated? And if so, does that help us out for the next storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well the NAM looks wetter out to 75 but we shall have to see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Isn't the current system in TX an LA moving alot slower than anticipated? And if so, does that help us out for the next storm? Same speed, but a touch wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well the NAM looks wetter out to 75 but we shall have to see where it goes. Much better, let's hope the GFS joins in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hard to extrapolate the NAM but @81 it looks downright juicy...oh yeah and a good Super Bowl on TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The NAM is a major step in the right direction @84 snow is breaking out in N GA the upstate and into NC...looks like the upstate would be the big winner verbatim this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 the southern coastal plain of NC has already picked up 5 inches of snow by hour 84 and the main system hasnt even arrived yet.... WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Of course it must be said this is the NAM @84 but screw it it's fun to dream especially if we can increase that qpf to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well the NAM looks wetter out to 75 but we shall have to see where it goes. It is a little wetter. I folowed the 850 low on it all the way to nw Ga and central Alabama area. The 5H vort is pretty strong coming across the red river, then northern Miss. then it begins to shear. Yet it does develop a 1012 low near Mobile and takes it across n. Fl and develops a dual center at 84 hours, one off the GA coast. The big winner is still Ok and Arkansas, no doubt, as they get the benefit of getting hit while the dynamics are very good and convergence and the concentrated 850 low which just crawls slowly for a while along the Red River to southern Arkansas, so Little Rock to Tulsa is going to get a nice snowfall from this, per all models. It will be interesting to see if the seasonal trend of a stronger, longer lived system holds up, and only the next few runs will show that if this run is an indication of that or just the NAM being its unreliable self at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 the southern coastal plain of NC has already picked up 5 inches of snow by hour 84 and the main system hasnt even arrived yet.... WOW It looks and sounds great but lets remember its the 84 hour nam. I do like the wetter trend though and that coupled with the wetter ensembles I think we are sitting decent right now but with lots of time left before the event anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'd say we're still in the hunt for a decent storm, but probably not a monster with severe cold like we were hoping for 24 hours ago. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It will be interesting to see if the seasonal trend of a stronger, longer lived system holds up, and only the next few runs will show that if this run is an indication of that or just the NAM being its unreliable self at 84 hours. Don't you know when it trends in a better direction it's totally legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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