packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 HPC forecast precip Wed/Thur It always amazes me how HPC's maps usually show a solution that's no current model is showing. I guess they make their forecasts based on climatology and model biases. More often than not, they are correct. I remember many potential storms where almost every model was showing snow for most of the southeast and their maps would be right through the mountains, northern foothills and up through VA. Does anyone have a link to the maps that has areas circled pretty colors with titles like "heavy snow possible?" I can't remember if it's HPC or CPC that puts those out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It always amazes me how HPC's maps usually show a solution that's no current model is showing. I guess they make their forecasts based on climatology and model biases. More often than not, they are correct. I remember many potential storms where almost every model was showing snow for most of the southeast and their maps would be right through the mountains, northern foothills and up through VA. Does anyone have a link to the maps that has areas circled pretty colors with titles like "heavy snow possible?" I can't remember if it's HPC or CPC that puts those out. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The runs today were not very good for a major winter storm, especially for western NC. I do expect the models to trend wetter as we move forward. Additionally, snowfall ratios will be rather high with this type of storm. In the end, I would not be surprised if the eastern side of the Blue Ridge and the coastal sections of NC are the big winners. Models will not begin to see the meso banding that occurs over the foothills of NC until time for the storm. We will know more information on this storm at 12z tomorrow and especially on Tuesday at 12z. This could also be one of those storms where the models shift 50-100 miles north 24 hours before the storm. This is an interesting possible winter storm before warmer weather arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 My current assessment on chances for snow for Atlanta: No snow 30 % trace of snow 20% 0.1-1.0" 20% 1.1-2.0" 15% 2.1-4.0" 10% 4.1+" 5% So, I'd take the Euro's 2-3" in a heartbeat as the odds are much higher that there'd be less, if any, snow. I give myself a 50/50 shot of seeing something. If tomorrows system comes in more robust, and keeps that trend going, I'll fell better about things. Seeing all that cold air vanish and a heat wave coming is not very encouraging. Kind of looks like your contest will go to someone in the less extreme range T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The reason that they say "little or none" is because they don't know. Stop jumping the gun, sit back, and just watch things unfold. Jumping the gun ? I'm just stating what they put in the forecast. I don't know what you're talking about jumping the gun? I know they will not put out accum yet, heck they don't even know if it will snow yet...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep....winter_wx.shtml Thanks Jon. This isn't the link I was talking about, though. I'm looking for the one that shows the US map and will show all weather potentials for the day. One might be for heavy rain, one might be heavy snow Feb 10, or thunderstorms. I'm sure that someone will post it in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Everyone seems so down here about snow next Thursday. I thought I would check the board because WRAL just posted on facebook that the models are showing the system more south now and the chance for snow here looks greater, but the amounts look less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The reason that they say "little or none" is because they don't know. Stop jumping the gun, sit back, and just watch things unfold. No, the reason they put "little or none" is that with current thinking they expect little or none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Thanks Jon. This isn't the link I was talking about, though. I'm looking for the one that shows the US map and will show all weather potentials for the day. One might be for heavy rain, one might be heavy snow Feb 10, or thunderstorms. I'm sure that someone will post it in the next few days. Oh ok, I'm not sure about that one. That's as close as I got to circles with pretty colors saying heavy snow possible. haha... I'd like to know as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Everyone seems so down here about snow next Thursday. I thought I would check the board because WRAL just posted on facebook that the models are showing the system more south now and the chance for snow here looks greater, but the amounts look less. Our snow chances are actually looking up, Brick! It is becoming increasingly likely that we see snow and probably an all-snow event. The question now is how much moisture we will have to work with, which is a bit of problem given most of the modeling right now, but we'll probably see this thing trend a little more NW towards what the ensemble mean is right now (though that's no guarantee). However, even if we don't have as much moisture to work with, a light snow event is quite likely at this point for Raleigh, IMO, with a larger event on the table, as well. And I know you would take a 1-3" or 2-4" event any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It always amazes me how HPC's maps usually show a solution that's no current model is showing. I guess they make their forecasts based on climatology and model biases. More often than not, they are correct. I remember many potential storms where almost every model was showing snow for most of the southeast and their maps would be right through the mountains, northern foothills and up through VA. Does anyone have a link to the maps that has areas circled pretty colors with titles like "heavy snow possible?" I can't remember if it's HPC or CPC that puts those out. http://www.hpc.ncep....winter_wx.shtml Oh ok, I'm not sure about that one. That's as close as I got to circles with pretty colors saying heavy snow possible. haha... I'd like to know as well! This is what you're looking for. To get it in the future, go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ and under "U.S. Hazards Assessment" hit "Precip.". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Packfan, I think you are talking about the CPC threat maps. I dont have a link on my BB but you can google it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This is what you're looking for. To get it in the future, go to "U.S. Hazards Assessment" and hit "Precip.". Thanks Superjames!!! That's the one I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 HPC low pressure track looks pretty good for most of us, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It always amazes me how HPC's maps usually show a solution that's no current model is showing. I guess they make their forecasts based on climatology and model biases. More often than not, they are correct. I remember many potential storms where almost every model was showing snow for most of the southeast and their maps would be right through the mountains, northern foothills and up through VA. Does anyone have a link to the maps that has areas circled pretty colors with titles like "heavy snow possible?" I can't remember if it's HPC or CPC that puts those out. Their precip totals are usually way too high. They must add all totals of all the models together or something. :headscratch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The reason that they say "little or none" is because they don't know. Stop jumping the gun, sit back, and just watch things unfold. this storm will be a dud, not much will happen on this one. Maybe being negative will cause us to get hammered but highly doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Surprise! NO SUPER STORM per JB 3pm Neg pna is doing the dirty work, But a weaker more southern track will supply more snow from North Texas into the coastal mid atlantic. Said it may hit 80 in Dallas next week 70 in DC. I gotta sharpen my lawn mower blades, lol i am ready for decent weather if it is not going to snow but definitely not ready to mow. Got to much work to complete before we think about mowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Nobody loves snow more than me, But to be honest I'm about ready for spring, My kids need to get outside and play some.... I posted earlier we need to enjoy whatever we get from this event Thursday. Next week is a wash and then your only looking at a possible 2-3 week window climo wise outside the mtns. With the constant -NAO a faded memory Im gonna enjoy this one because I put the higher odds in favor this might be the last accumulating snow for the season IMBY. Hope I'm wrong, but the reality is by th last week of FEB the sun angle is equal to late October. Not only do you have the normal obstacles we face of getting a snow storm in our area, but you have to fight the warmer ground and longer daylight hours e.t.c. I like where we sit at the moment and beleive the ensembles have the right idea. Hopefully we can get some more robust qpf. Rather be rooting for qpf then the cold pendellum to swing in our favor from 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well the 18z GFS looks horrible...suppression city and weak all the way. Nothing to see here on to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well the 18z GFS looks horrible...suppression city and weak all the way. Nothing to see here on to 00z. Yep, super dry. But it actually looked better aloft. Once it gets east of the Mississipp, the precip goes poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I loved the big, gaping hole over Alabama and Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This storm has trended really pitiful. Thats life living in the south with snow chances I guess. Storm goes lakes cutter and its pretty much a guarantee 5 days out. if its showing a southern storm, It dissapears more often than not lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This storm has trended really pitiful. Thats life living in the south with snow chances I guess. Storm goes lakes cutter and its pretty much a guarantee 5 days out. if its showing a southern storm, It dissapears more often than not lol. How has it trended really pitful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Guys, I know its not looking like a big deal now but it's way too early to write this off. If models still look pathetic in 48 hours ill jump ship but way too early to be doing so now. Even though 18z gfs look pathetic precipwise aloft is looking better. I wouldn't be surprised if precip begins ramping in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 don't understand if the storm is a lakes cutter it goes north and blows up to a huge snowstorm and now its coming south along the coast we can't buy any snow, well at least not a nice storm4 inches or better know we're 4 days out so i'm still hoping This storm has trended really pitiful. Thats life living in the south with snow chances I guess. Storm goes lakes cutter and its pretty much a guarantee 5 days out. if its showing a southern storm, It dissapears more often than not lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I agree. Wouldn't suprise me at all to see it ramp up as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Surprise! NO SUPER STORM per JB 3pm Neg pna is doing the dirty work, But a weaker more southern track will supply more snow from North Texas into the coastal mid atlantic. Said it may hit 80 in Dallas next week 70 in DC. I gotta sharpen my lawn mower blades, lol Just did. Tractor is ready to ride. Bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Climo says we will be too warm if we don't have this thing track through North Central FL in CAE to keep us all snow. The rest of the storms this year have been a different beast and went against climo for us. We need this one to track like the Euro shows on 12z to have a chance of anything other than a brief bout of mix before the change to rain happens and even then with the storm being a bit weak, the moisture may have an issue amounting to a nice snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Reading the AFD's from Birmingham and Huntsville is rather humorous. HSV relying on Euro ensembles while BMX saying it's going to be a weaker system. HSVTHE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT AT THIS TIME WE ONLY HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO STATE THAT SNOW IS LIKELY AND THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS HIGHLY PROBABLE...GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SUBSTANTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THIS REGION. BMXOVERALL...TRENDS ARE DOWN AND IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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