FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the SREF was weaker and quickly once its leaving Ok/Tex, and supressed as well. What QPF there was is very light, I know it only goes to 87 hours and our event is just about to start here. The RH field only reaches 80% at 7H though, but the axis is a little more north , similar to the GFS ensemble. The key is going to be how much "umph" the s/w has as it comes east from Texas. Usually, these things are a little stronger and wetter, but since we're in a fast changing pattern about this time, all bets are off on the normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Any word on the EURO Ensembles? EDIT: Ian, in the mid-atlantic thread, says the ensemble mean was "sucky." Can anyone chime in on comparison between it and the operational or the 0z ensemble mean? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hey everyone, I'm new to the forums and just wanted to say hello. I absolutely love the weather and being from the upstate of SC this winter has been very entertaining. Let's hope we get at least a couple of inches out of next week before the pattern breaks down the following week. I feel positive in that a good portion of the members will see something on the ground come the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12Z Euro ensemble mean: ~2" N ATL burbs-AHN to 2.5" Tony's abode S of ATL, which is the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 things will change a lot between now and thursday 12Z Euro ensemble mean: ~2" N ATL burbs-AHN to 2.5" Tony's abode S of ATL, which is the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 things will change a lot between now and thursday Probably, but don't always assume it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 things will change a lot between now and thursday There is a chance it won't change at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 now guys you know the models are going to flip flop, if you've kept up the with storms all winter you know this won't hold, we are four days out, if we were 24 hours out well thats different. models will start honing in about tuesday. of course this is my take and opinion. i think you will see moisture will increase as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro ensemble mean is very good for the i-20 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hey everyone, I'm new to the forums and just wanted to say hello. I absolutely love the weather and being from the upstate of SC this winter has been very entertaining. Let's hope we get at least a couple of inches out of next week before the pattern breaks down the following week. I feel positive in that a good portion of the members will see something on the ground come the end of next week. Welcome!! Fellow Upstate Poster!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Huntsville is pretty bullish on snow: THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THECRITICALLY IMPORTANT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT AT THIS TIME WE ONLY HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO STATE THAT SNOW IS LIKELY AND THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS HIGHLY PROBABLE...GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SUBSTANTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THIS REGION. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE THURSDAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.WARMER/DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Here's the last frame from the new 18z Nam. Anyone want to extrapolate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Sorry, don't know what I was looking at. I like it actually, although the shortwave in the bottom image is too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Surprise! NO SUPER STORM per JB 3pm Neg pna is doing the dirty work, But a weaker more southern track will supply more snow from North Texas into the coastal mid atlantic. Said it may hit 80 in Dallas next week 70 in DC. I gotta sharpen my lawn mower blades, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The nam keeps the southern wave stronger for longer. It still wekens as it moves east. But its stronger with the energy than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Surprise! NO SUPER STORM per JB 3pm Neg pna is doing the dirty work, But a weaker more southern track will supply more snow from North Texas into the coastal mid atlantic. Said it may hit 80 in Dallas next week 70 in DC. I gotta sharpen my lawn mower blades, lol The warm air coming in after this week is about a certainty. The Euro even had a pretty stout southeast ridge, but flat...would still be well above normal temps if that happens. Of course its still Feb. so this will probably be transient warmth. Just a sign that spring is around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Surprise! NO SUPER STORM per JB 3pm Neg pna is doing the dirty work, But a weaker more southern track will supply more snow from North Texas into the coastal mid atlantic. Said it may hit 80 in Dallas next week 70 in DC. I gotta sharpen my lawn mower blades, lol Your two snow events next week will be a distant memory come v day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Here's the last frame from the new 18z Nam. Anyone want to extrapolate? Looks like it is falling in with other consensus. It was robust looking and then poof...it weakened considerably. We will see what happens with the runs tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The warm air coming in after this week is about a certainty. The Euro even had a pretty stout southeast ridge, but flat...would still be well above normal temps if that happens. Of course its still Feb. so this will probably be transient warmth. Just a sign that spring is around the corner. Nobody loves snow more than me, But to be honest I'm about ready for spring, My kids need to get outside and play some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Ha. I like how we are trying to analyze the 84hr nam. I would take the 12z gfs and euro ensemble means and just run with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Your two snow events next week will be a distant memory come v day. lol. That's for sure! Bout time for T-Ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 HPC forecast precip Wed/Thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Ha. I like how we are trying to analyze the 84hr nam. I would take the 12z gfs and euro ensemble means and just run with them. I would to if I lived in Texas, Miss, or Bama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 now this looks good to me HPC forecast precip Wed/Thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 My current assessment on chances for snow for Atlanta: No snow 30 % trace of snow 20% 0.1-1.0" 20% 1.1-2.0" 15% 2.1-4.0" 10% 4.1+" 5% So, I'd take the Euro's 2-3" in a heartbeat as the odds are much higher that there'd be less, if any, snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 any indication of whether HPC thinks that >.75 in eastern NC is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I might still see some light snow fall, But probably no accum. latest from RNK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 At this point, I think the model solutions will stabilize considering their ensemble solutions are no longer further south than the operational runs. There is pretty much no chance at this point this system ends up being an inland solution (apps or lakes cutter), but having a solution similar to some of the gfs ensemble members is still in the cards, which would be a decent event for the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I might still see some light snow fall, But probably no accum. latest from RNK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT The reason that they say "little or none" is because they don't know. Stop jumping the gun, sit back, and just watch things unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Welcome!! Fellow Upstate Poster!! Thank you much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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