jburns Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 thanks jburns very much for your opinion, now that wasn't so bad Dude, troll someone else. EDIT: I retract this statement. Thought you were the poster I had an earlier exchange with. My apologies sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The main reason this go around is it's weakening the wave as it comes east. So we'll see if we see a trend towards a stronger wave this week. Should be interesting to watch. Almost always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes this has happened all year. Show the storm from day 5-6, drop it day 3 to 4, and then trend it back NW inside of 48 hours.To me, I'd watch this one closely. Right on! We may not see a flake this time, but it's too early too say. Just answer this question: Did you really want to be in the jackpot on Sunday when the storm will be on Thursday? I think that everyone is concerned because the strength of the storm is weakening on the models. Remember that many of our storms really ramp up the precipitation numbers and intensity in the final 48 hours leading up to a event (think Christmas storm). Shortwaves that were supposed to dampen out sometimes didn't. This change in strength effects the NW trend and interaction between streams/potential phasing. I'm not sure what will happen, but I think that you will probably agree that it won't be exactly the same thing that the models say 3-4 days before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottL Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not to sidetrack the discussion too much, but I was wondering what things were looking like for Thursday and Friday in terms of surface temps. Back a few days ago the models were predicting some (for this part of the country) ridiculously low 850s and surface temps (see the thread re: Atlanta prediction). I'm assuming that, thankfully, we're no longer looking at a really bad short cold snap after this? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'd at least wait till tuesday to issue a storm cancel. The wave doesn't really come fully onshore until 12z tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 anyone have the link to free euro qpf output? (BF?) Thanks in advance Trying to check on Charlotte,GSO,RDU and Fayetteville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 since we're entering a period of pattern change, I don't think any models are going to get this right over the next several days. The pattern is changing this week, and the warmer Pacific air is coming into most of the country, by this time next week we in the Southeast will be enjoying early Spring conditions. If you've noticed, each run is warmer and warmer behind the Thursday system, I expect that to continue. There really won't be any cold air after this storm, as the pacific should be flooding in fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 anyone have the link to free euro qpf output? (BF?) Thanks in advance Trying to check on Charlotte,GSO,RDU and Fayetteville. Any qpf totals you get might just depress us ...just a fair warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 since we're entering a period of pattern change, I don't think any models are going to get this right over the next several days. The pattern is changing this week, and the warmer Pacific air is coming into most of the country, by this time next week we in the Southeast will be enjoying early Spring conditions. If you've noticed, each run is warmer and warmer behind the Thursday system, I expect that to continue. There really won't be any cold air after this storm, as the pacific should be flooding in fast. noticed that. it almost has the look of a late feb/early march end of winter type pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 since we're entering a period of pattern change, I don't think any models are going to get this right over the next several days. The pattern is changing this week, and the warmer Pacific air is coming into most of the country, by this time next week we in the Southeast will be enjoying early Spring conditions. If you've noticed, each run is warmer and warmer behind the Thursday system, I expect that to continue. There really won't be any cold air after this storm, as the pacific should be flooding in fast. More the sense of urgency to score with this threat. You can really notice the days growing longer now. We have and could still get hit late Feb/early March, But if I got one shot left, I'd assume go ahead and take it now. The Snow from Mid Feb onward disappears faster than it can accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z JMA on inaccuwx looks better than the Euro, <1005mb low centered about 100 miles off HAT at 120hrs. I am not concerned at this point, and cliff diving is unwarranted (see posting etiquette rule 3). All one has to do is look at the Euro runs from a couple days ago to see the potential, and while this does not look like a big dog storm for the SE, a widespread light-moderate event is still on the table. We have seen it several times this winter, the Euro latches on to a extreme solution in the 7 day, only to scale it back if not take it away in the 3-5 day range, and then all the guidance within about 48 hrs converges on something similar to the original Euro solution, but to a lesser extreme. We still have a good 48 hrs left of waffling, and expecting the event to play out exactly as the 12z suite showed today is foolish, and highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 anyone have the link to free euro qpf output? (BF?) Thanks in advance Trying to check on Charlotte,GSO,RDU and Fayetteville. CLT- .11 GSO- .05 RDU- .11 I don't know what Fayetteville code is ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ORF if u dont mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z JMA on inaccuwx looks better than the Euro, <1005mb low centered about 100 miles off HAT at 120hrs. I am not concerned at this point, and cliff diving is unwarranted (see posting etiquette rule 3). All one has to do is look at the Euro runs from a couple days ago to see the potential, and while this does not look like a big dog storm for the SE, a widespread light-moderate event is still on the table. We have seen it several times this winter, the Euro latches on to a extreme solution in the 7 day, only to scale it back if not take it away in the 3-5 day range, and then all the guidance within about 48 hrs converges on something similar to the original Euro solution, but to a lesser extreme. We still have a good 48 hrs left of waffling, and expecting the event to play out exactly as the 12z suite showed today is foolish, and highly unlikely. Couldn't agree more, we are in that phase where you start cursing yourself for staying up to stare at the models. Like Brandon said Tuesday should be when our fates are decided either way and if it's keeping it suppressed at least we are still in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well the JMA looks quite nice. Give it a big ole hug. I am. Love the look of a well established 850 low over Louisiana @96 sliding east http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_850_GPHTMPRH_96HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ORF if u dont mind .09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ouch! thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 OK- one last thought and I am out for the rest of the afternoon/evening- going to s Super Bowl party. The chances of a big adjustment back north is very small IMO because that would involve a phase and with the really fast flow in the broad trough up north this seems highly unlikely. A small shift back north is very possible, but very large adjustments to what the vast majority of the guidance is now showing is just not in the cards. We will have a GOM or maybe Gulf coast low which will be fairly weak. Someone in the SE sees snow- most likely a minor to moderate event. This much seems pretty likely. Of course relatively minor changes in track with this system will mean a pretty big difference in the forecast- here in ATL we could get all rain, rain to snow, or all snow. I do think a total qpf here of .5 or higher is not likely.. That is my best wag- see you later tonight after the 00Z runs roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z GFS ens members... Most are wetter than the op, and none show a C FL track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yea would be nice if all the models would take note and who knows,,,,maybe Well the JMA looks quite nice. Give it a big ole hug. I am. Love the look of a well established 850 low over Louisiana @96 sliding east http://grib2.com/jma...HTMPRH_96HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_96HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well, I can see why the 12z GFS ensemble mean looked better. The individual members look good in my opinion. Most are not as week or suppressed as the operational. The members stay in agreement til hr 84 and then the variations occur. Most take a low across FL just south of the panhandle and tracks just off of Cape Hatteras. Really good tracks. The variation is in intensity but most don't have the dampening out look that we saw yesterday or on the 12z operational. Take a look at the possibilities: 12z GFS Ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Also, most look really good. Thanks for posting those... 12z GFS ens members... Most are wetter than the op, and none show a C FL track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 We would be begging for this kind of look 4 days out in most years. I think it's highly likely that the QPF ramps up in the next few days, but no question there are going to be limitations on the high end with this system given the low ampliturde, low vorticity nature of the wave. We are still going to have a good gulf tap though - it's not like this system is waiting to get its act together way east (say, in the eastern gulf). Moreover, I am increasingly impressed with solid high pressure and NE flow out ahead of our system - cold air is always our big bugaboo in the south. This is a good look to me at 72 on the UKMet with respect to the precip and moisture field expansion in Oklahoma...and this is for a model that is rather suppressed with the low track going across Daytona Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The models in general are consistent with 1-2 inches for NGA less in S NC and the jackpot is found in the north ATL burbs around 3 inches. The only CONSISTENCY the models have shown this winter is how CONFUSED they are with this storm and every storm since NOV-DEC. The QPF is the problem with this storm. This storm will double QPF amounts currently shown at this time by the 4-5 models most track. So I am expecting to see as of NOW around 3-5 for roughly ATL -NGA 2-4 S NC. Could easily see totals an inch or two higher than this. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Is it me or is the storm slowing down? I thought it was coming in on Wed night and Thurs.Now it looks like not arriving til Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Remember folks, Euro has been King this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 12z Euro gives Atl-Ahn the jackpot of this run with 2" for ahn to n atl burbs, 2.5" atl downtown, 3" s atl burbs, and 3.5" Tony's abode. This would be a very nice cap on an incredible winter in that area. Bring it on! Of course, it is still way too far out in the future to allow for much confidence in these areas getting any snow. But I sure like what I see and certainly hope they can muster a couple of inches, which would be a sig. event without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 FFC just issued a Special Weather Statement for Monday for us: http://www.daculaweather.com/severe_alert.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z GFS ens members... Most are wetter than the op, and none show a C FL track. This is a pretty strong sign in my opinion that the OP run is too far south. We saw this consistently with the early January system as the models were too quick in dampening out the lead shortwave. I'm curious to see if the same thing is going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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