packbacker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Cut the cliff diver crap. I agree with you, way to early to cliff dive yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Gfs ensembles look like the 00z euro ensembles. Very similar. Euro should hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I agree with you, way to early to cliff dive yet. A difference of opinion is not a reason to make up derogatory names. We don't need it and it causes problems like we had with the last storm. http://www.americanw...post__p__360949 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 A difference of opinion is not a reason to make up derogatory names. We don't need it and it causes problems like we had with the last storm. http://www.americanw...post__p__360949 I have no idea what you are talking about, but OK, point taken, let's move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not one single member of the 12z gfs ensemble members is as dry as the op. Much wetter which makes me think the gfs bias to destroy the northern stream is clearly showing on the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This run could turn into a disaster, but I swear at 72hrs the 12z Euro looks exactly like the 12z euro from yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12Z Euro to 84- slower by a lot than the GFS and somewhat from the 00Z run, looks weaker and a bit more positively tilted EDit- looks better at 90 hrs, pretty good surface low in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 From OHX office: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This is perfect....lol I hope the qpf comes back for this area...the last 3 days it's gone from around an inch to just under .25 I've had right at 4 inches this week. I see no reason to expect expect anything less next week, as trying to figure out the weather lately has been like trying to teach the cats to deliver the mail YOu've been off again, on again for snow, so let's just try to get you cold enough, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yikes, at 102, Euro has a weak SLP over Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hopefully this pup comes NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The Euro is about like its previous run, pretty supressed. A trace to 1" event most of Tenn, esp central to eastern and most of NC, except maybe coastal NC. ATL and the I-20 corridor are closer to more moisture and probably would get 1 to 3" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So we are a long way (at this point based on guidence) from an inland runner as some were predicting yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 OK- Euro not great, did get drier. About .3" here, sharp cuttoff to the heavier precip in central NC and northern NC. Not a good run for TN, far north GA, northern SC and western/northern NC- not dry up there, but generally about .1 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So we are a long way (at this point based on guidence) from an inland runner as some were predicting yesterday? Yes- that scenario is extremely unlikely. We are approaching consensus of a light-moderate event- 1-4" in general for a fair numbers of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not good trends on the op. models for sure. Sometimes models weaken a system too quickly but I'm not getting hopes up here on anything much. Further south and west esp. from around ATL and toward Miss. and much of Arkansas look like the winners of the snow. Still a big question mark how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 but isn't the trend on past storms to come north and west some as we get closer to the event. STILL 4 DAYS OUT. Yes- that scenario is extremely unlikely. We are approaching consensus of a light-moderate event- 1-4" in general for a fair numbers of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z Euro drops .05 flakes in frosty land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 but isn't the trend on past storms to come north and west some as we get closer to the event. STILL 4 DAYS OUT. It is but it's even easier to sit with no scientific background and wishcast. These guys are just giving us the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 but isn't the trend on past storms to come north and west some as we get closer to the event. STILL 4 DAYS OUT. Yes this has happened all year. Show the storm from day 5-6, drop it day 3 to 4, and then trend it back NW inside of 48 hours.To me, I'd watch this one closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes this has happened all year. Show the storm from day 5-6, drop it day 3 to 4, and then trend it back NW inside of 48 hours.To me, I'd watch this one closely. Hell this winter you can't throw in the towel or celebrate until the radar returns start showing up near your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hey man call it what you want just asking a question which is on the up and up, no one is wishcasting just blogging to the experts and if we can't ask questions then we may as well quit. It is but it's even easier to sit with no scientific background and wishcast. These guys are just giving us the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes this has happened all year. Show the storm from day 5-6, drop it day 3 to 4, and then trend it back NW inside of 48 hours.To me, I'd watch this one closely. I too expect a NW trend. The bigger question in my mind is how much QPF will there be. NW trend doesn't do you much good if the system is to weak to transport moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes this has happened all year. Show the storm from day 5-6, drop it day 3 to 4, and then trend it back NW inside of 48 hours.To me, I'd watch this one closely. Yep. The pattern is different now than previous. I know that in years past, it was VERY common for the models to have a storm, drop it in the 4-5 day range and then bring it back. I seem to recall the models, even the euro, doing the same with the Christmas storm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hey man call it what you want just asking a question which is on the up and up, no one is wishcasting just blogging to the experts and if we can't ask questions then we may as well quit. I guess I was just confused on your yelling (all caps) of "four days out". It almost seemed to be implying that you were trying to prove Cheez wrong or just being rude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 thanks jburns very much for your opinion, now that wasn't so bad I too expect a NW trend. The bigger question in my mind is how much QPF will there be. NW trend doesn't do you much good if the system is to weak to transport moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I too expect a NW trend. The bigger question in my mind is how much QPF will there be. NW trend doesn't do you much good if the system is to weak to transport moisture. The main reason this go around is it's weakening the wave as it comes east. So we'll see if we see a trend towards a stronger wave this week. Should be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I've had right at 4 inches this week. I see no reason to expect expect anything less next week, as trying to figure out the weather lately has been like trying to teach the cats to deliver the mail YOu've been off again, on again for snow, so let's just try to get you cold enough, lol. T Wow 3.42" imby for the start of Feb, this is the most rain I have seen in months Don't get me wrong...I would love a repeat of last year...but I would be extremely happy with this winter's performance if I didn't see anything frozen from here on out. Snow on Christmas(well the day after).....bonus snow and ice a couple of weeks later....and watching all my fellow se crew enjoying a memorable winter.....priceless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Remember the Feb 13 storm? I don't because I was skiing, but it looked like a miss to the south by a whole lot. There was 3" on the ground on the 14th when I got home! Not suggesting it's the same thing. Just one of the more extreme examples of the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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