AirNelson39 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Certainly a complete screw is possible but saying this given what the Euro and CMC showed last night is being too pessimistic IMO. Lets wait for at least a few more runs before commencing the Brick-style gloom and doom, Haha I'm trying man I'm trying, I really really hope I'm wrong too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Certainly a complete screw is possible but saying this given what the Euro and CMC showed last night is being too pessimistic IMO. Lets wait for at least a few more runs before commencing the Brick-style gloom and doom, +1 Any cliff divers feel free to go jump in the banter thread. No need to say it won't happen being this far out. Models give us a couple of screw solutions and we all freak out. I still see SN in lots of areas with many of these weaker solutions so don't give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I have been out of the loop. Anyone mind giving me a quick rundown of the current prospects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I have been out of the loop. Anyone mind giving me a quick rundown of the current prospects? Every model is showing a week and supressed low off NC/SC coast. Including the latest GGEM, we were looking at a good snow with yesterdays models and now the models are weakening the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Latest GGEM says what storm. 108 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I don't see this system being more than a few flurries for western half of NC maybe even rain showers at this rate. Temps are trending warmer and warmer before, during, and after the storm. Just don't see anything to get this storm going qpf wise or even temp wise. Sorry folks maybe late Feb or early March we may get a little something Jiminy Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Every model is showing a week and supressed low off NC/SC coast. Including the latest GGEM, we were looking at a good snow with yesterdays models and now the models are weakening the low. But we do not know if this weaker trend will spread to the Euro and CMC- they both suggested at least a good solid 2-4" snow from ATL north and points due east from there. We are all hoping the new Euro and CMC hold the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 isn't this normal guys one day a big snow storm the next day nothing and then tomorrow the big storm is back like the Christmas storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Jiminy Christmas Not that we want to hear it but his scenario is as likely as a big storm at present. Just have to wait and see what direction things move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not liking the new CMC- looks like the GFS. Trying to remain optimistic but this is not good- ha ha since just 10 minutes ago I counseled against cliff diving. If the Euro backs off we may be toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 isn't the Euro the best model at this point what 3-4 days out? But we do not know if this weaker trend will spread to the Euro and CMC- they both suggested at least a good solid 2-4" snow from ATL north and points due east from there. We are all hoping the new Euro and CMC hold the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not that we want to hear it but his scenario is as likely as a big storm at present. Just have to wait and see what direction things move. Maybe so, but rain showers or snow flurries with no good rationale other than "I got a feelin' this is gonna suck" from 4 days out? Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not liking the new CMC- looks like the GFS. Trying to remain optimistic but this is not good- ha ha since just 10 minutes ago I counseled against cliff diving. If the Euro backs off we may be toast I'm not worried. We've seen this song & dance numerous times before. I would be worried if all the guidance was giving us a good snow storm right now. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the models lose the storm until about 36 hours out when they gradually start ramping up qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 guys models are going to be all over the place right now, let's be optimistic, just as yesterday this showed a big snowstorm today they don't well tomorrow maybe back to snowstorm, we are still 4 days out. the models aren't really showing a trend yet. keep those heads up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 i'm with you burrel2 we've seen this with every storm this winter, have a hunch it will be back. I'm not worried. We've seen this song & dance numerous times before. I would be worried if all the guidance was giving us a good snow storm right now. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the models lose the storm until about 36 hours out when they gradually start ramping up qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 12z GFS Ens mean is actually a little west of the OP and stronger with a SLP of 1012, which is good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 OK, the GFS ensemble mean actually trended wetter with a favorable track, a very good sign. After looking more closely at the CMC I see that despite being weaker/drier it does break out precip still into GA and the Carolinas. I think we will see the Euro hold the line- we will know in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I have been out of the loop. Anyone mind giving me a quick rundown of the current prospects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 OK, the GFS ensemble mean actually trended wetter with a favorable track, a very good sign. After looking more closely at the CMC I see that despite being weaker/drier it does break out precip still into GA and the Carolinas. I think we will see the Euro hold the line- we will know in an hour. Now you are talking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 12z GFS Ens mean is actually a little west of the OP and stronger with a SLP of 1012, which is good news. And I believe the 6z ensemble mean was better than the 0z. Maybe the only good trend so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOl...hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 17231:GFS_FailBoat.jpg I assume you are targeting this at the cliff divers and you are not ready to jump yet? I am not ready to jump, I still things look OK, have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Robert, You need to edit that photo and show the words "EPIC FAIL" on there as an ode to Eyewall. LMAO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOl...hilarious! LOL thanks guys I usually go with this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I assume you are targeting this at the cliff divers and you are not ready to jump yet? I am not ready to jump, I still things look OK, have to wait and see. Robert, You need to edit that photo and show the words "EPIC FAIL" on there as an ode to Eyewall. LMAO!!! hence the USS GFS. I'm not diving yet, there's time yet. It depends on the ridging if this can hold together here. The trends haven't been good though for anything substantial here, but for areas west of the Apps. esp around Ark and Ok it could be very significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Thanks for posting that Cheez!! OK, the GFS ensemble mean actually trended wetter with a favorable track, a very good sign. After looking more closely at the CMC I see that despite being weaker/drier it does break out precip still into GA and the Carolinas. I think we will see the Euro hold the line- we will know in an hour. That is classic Robert.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This is perfect....lol I hope the qpf comes back for this area...the last 3 days it's gone from around an inch to just under .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 as Cheeze showed the ensembles look much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I assume you are targeting this at the cliff divers and you are not ready to jump yet? I am not ready to jump, I still things look OK, have to wait and see. Cut the cliff diver crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.