oconeexman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like JB's blockbuster storm up the coast call is on life support after the last 24 hours of runs. It's amazing how many storms he has killed for my area. Probably better at killing storms than radio shows..... Lol I wouldn't doubt him and his forecast yet. A long way to go before this thing is pinned down. Same goes for here, we still don't have a consistent consensus between major models yet and probably won't until tomorrow. Still watching for trends like the north one that will probably occur this afternoon or tonight. IMO right now the UKMET and Canadian are staying the most consistent as far as storm track with the Euro close behind. GFS will start catching up tomorrow afternoon. So because the Euro waffled overnight doesn't mean squat unless it backs itself up today and tonight, then it's time to worry. I think the SE in general is very much still in this thing as well as the NE. I hope we get plastered again either way! Just my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I went back and looked at the 500 mb heights/vorticity. @ 96 on the 0z Euro, the southern stream begins to interact w/ the northern. By 108, there is more interaction. There appears to be a slight kicker dropping down behind the southern system from the northern branch. Versus it being cold that suppresses this, it appears to get kicked out before it can turn up the coast. If there is a change in timing for the southern system or a different handling of the two pieces of energy to the north, the outcome could be much different. W/ a -NAO not present on the CPC ensemble mean, the PNA trending negative, and the AO still positive during this storm's journey...I bet this jogs north. Now, it may not. But virtually every storm over the past two-three weeks has done this - pulled north and west. Like Phil, I will be interested to see if this happens which I suspect it might. The Ukie is what gives me pause w/ that thought, though. We are very much in a La Nina looking pattern now, and I would think that may rule the roost w/ this system before it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If it amps up more this thing wiil come futher north in the end, But if it stays weak strung out then BF will be on the inside looking out! Should get the track nailed down with tonight's 0z runs. I doubt track will be nailed down until tomorrow's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Interesting read...from HPC. DAYS 3-5 WED-FRI FEATURES A PROGRESSIVE BUT POTENT CENTRAL US TO EAST COAST TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS GENERALLY BEEN FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE/SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK RATHER THAN A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAT HOOKS UP THE EAST COAST. ECMWF WAS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TURN UNTIL ITS 00Z RUN...WHERE IT NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL AHEAD OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE AS IT LIFTS VERY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING MODEL VARIABILITY OVER SEVERAL SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE NOT SET IN STONE. ACCORDINGLY AND CONSIDERING CONTINUITY...HPC PROGS ARE MAINLY DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/05 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WED/THU THAT TRACKS SYSTEM SWATH SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE LEFT THAN THE BULK OF NEWER 00 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS SOLUTION MAY BETTER TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EFFECT UPON ANY SYSTEM EJECTING OVER SERN US RIDGING ALOFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Interesting read...from HPC. DAYS 3-5 WED-FRI FEATURES A PROGRESSIVE BUT POTENT CENTRAL US TO EAST COAST TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS GENERALLY BEEN FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE/SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK RATHER THAN A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAT HOOKS UP THE EAST COAST. ECMWF WAS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TURN UNTIL ITS 00Z RUN...WHERE IT NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL AHEAD OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE AS IT LIFTS VERY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING MODEL VARIABILITY OVER SEVERAL SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE NOT SET IN STONE. ACCORDINGLY AND CONSIDERING CONTINUITY...HPC PROGS ARE MAINLY DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/05 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WED/THU THAT TRACKS SYSTEM SWATH SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE LEFT THAN THE BULK OF NEWER 00 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS SOLUTION MAY BETTER TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EFFECT UPON ANY SYSTEM EJECTING OVER SERN US RIDGING ALOFT. LUCY!!!-splain this to me? I didn't comprehend any concept of track or trend from this, am I the only one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 definitley think this is a southern ga to carolina coast up the coast storm. I think things look pretty good still being 96 hours out. I would think the Apps runner scenario is not likely (knock on wood). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I went back and looked at the 500 mb heights/vorticity. @ 96 on the 0z Euro, the southern stream begins to interact w/ the northern. By 108, there is more interaction. There appears to be a slight kicker dropping down behind the southern system from the northern branch. Versus it being cold that suppresses this, it appears to get kicked out before it can turn up the coast. If there is a change in timing for the southern system or a different handling of the two pieces of energy to the north, the outcome could be much different. W/ a -NAO not present on the CPC ensemble mean, the PNA trending negative, and the AO still positive during this storm's journey...I bet this jogs north. Now, it may not. But virtually every storm over the past two-three weeks has done this - pulled north and west. Like Phil, I will be interested to see if this happens which I suspect it might. The Ukie is what gives me pause w/ that thought, though. We are very much in a La Nina looking pattern now, and I would think that may rule the roost w/ this system before it's done. we need the pna ridge. If it goes flat our storm goes flat. The more that ridge pumps the more our system can dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 They are still following the lead from the previous model runs, and discounting the most current runs, until they see the trend continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 we need the pna ridge. If it goes flat our storm goes flat. The more that ridge pumps the more our system can dig. If I recall correctly that's what JB's concern was PNA going negitive right about storm time? Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 we need the pna ridge. If it goes flat our storm goes flat. The more that ridge pumps the more our system can dig. That's why this first system needs to really ramp up as it heads up the coast, that will pull the extra cold air in and keep this next low further south. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 After posting I just glanced at the 12z nam. And it has a nice pna ridge at 48 hours. The ridge axis is pretty far west. Just off the west coast. The axis of the ridge on the nam at 48 would normally be an inland runner. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If I recall correctly that's what JB's concern was PNA going negitive right about storm time? Correct me if I'm wrong. Yea I remember reading that now. Normally models are too quick in breaking these down. Just like they are too quick in rushing in a cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the NAM is finally catching on to how strong that storm on Monday and Tuesday heading up the coast is going to be....that is what we really need to pay attention to on Monday what the NAM does with it. Does it bomb it out and pull it close enough to push cold air down to us? That's the million dollar question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 6z gfs Gives Eyewall 5+ inches of snow. This is just for a 24 hour period Looks like a solid 3 inches east of 85 and more for eastern piedmont and central/northern coastal plain. Southern coastal plain would have possible 850 issues. Us "Coasties" always do, it's a givin... Cold rain "again"... Bring on Spring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Actually J.B. is the best at what he does. If he says blockbuster storm then I think we have a great shot at just that. Haters gonna hate. Sry, not a hater, though I compare J.B., AKIN to the Jim Cramer on CNBS(cnbc), Like pumping stocks, take the Fade on'em... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 From NWS Great Falls MT TIMING AND MAIN IMPACT: A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. Sounds like the Wednesday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 @84 the NAM looks like it's going to be way more inland...but again I think it's slow to catch on to that storm bombing out up north on Tuesday night into Wed. it took a NW jump on this run so we need it to continue. On to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'll wait until around 72 hours for the NAM. I'm with you, on to the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 @84 the NAM looks like it's going to be way more inland...but again I think it's slow to catch on to that storm bombing out up north on Tuesday night into Wed. it took a NW jump on this run so we need it to continue. On to the 12z GFS. Do you mean literally inland or just closer to the coast? If the former, we don't need it to keep jumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z NAM looks fairly juicy. Also, trough is still positive as it's rotating. I wouldn't extrapolate that as an inland runner as it should stay suppressed along the coast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This thread has the urgent need for an actual meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z NAM looks fairly juicy. Also, trough is still positive as it's rotating. I wouldn't extrapolate that as an inland runner as it should stay suppressed along the coast line. I guess thats an LP forming in TX..but just looks a lot more north @84...however I don't think that's how it plays out. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This thread has the urgent need for an actual meteorologist. Yep. When you have to rely on me for analysis it's a sad day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It might be inland but it will not be over or west of the apps. That vortex in central Canada will keep that from happening. I will be back on after church. Hope the 12z runs come in better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM is never good at the end of it's run (72-84 hrs). GFS and euro are best. I do start taking notice inside 72 hours. Inside 48 hours I give it more validity then others (except maybe RUC...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Low pressure is not that impressive on some of the models. especially the GFS. too weak...not expecting heavy snow accumulations for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's the 84 hour NAM. Throw it out! Come on guys, you know how this works by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's the 84 hour NAM. Throw it out! Come on guys, you know how this works by now. Oh let me get one thing straight, I thought the 12z NAM was a step in the right direction compared to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This thread has the urgent need for an actual meteorologist. Yes it does...Robert plz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Low pressure is not that impressive on some of the models. especially the GFS. too weak...not expecting heavy snow accumulations for WNC. Ever heard of the NW trend?? I'd be more worried about rain from it being too far inland before worrying about missing us to the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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