Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Don't know what others have experienced, but I rarely, if ever, have seen the ensemble means north of the Op runs. Seems like they are always south. I think that has happened during the past two weeks - either w/ the Chicago blizzard or the rain we had last week. Edit: Thus, if the ensembles are north, then the operational is too far south per Phil's post below. If they are in-line w/ the operational, then it may be the model is zoning in on the track and/or the southeast jog has stopped. If they are south of the track, then the operational may still jog south. The ensembles will give us a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Don't know what others have experienced, but I rarely, if ever, have seen the ensemble means north of the Op runs. Seems like they are always south. Yea, typically if the ensemble mean is north of the OP run, then there is a significant chance the OP is too far south with a feature. It doesn't work the other way around though, as most of the time the OP run will have better resolution that picks up on stronger surface lows and other features in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Being from Columbia, I could care less if we were the winner tonight or not. I just want to be at least in the "zone" for some snow. lol I just there was a way we all could get pounded, everyone in the SE, all of us. You guys are so greedy. You're in the sweet spot all summer. While those of us in the Triad only make it to 96 or so, you regularly lead the area with 101 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You guys are so greedy. You're in the sweet spot all summer. While those of us in the Triad only make it to 96 or so, you regularly lead the area with 101 or more. LOL....Dude, i'll trade you my 101 plus degree summertime temps for your 96 anyday of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL....Dude, i'll trade you my 101 plus degree summertime temps for your 96 anyday of the week. Like hell you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NOGAPS is way south and weak, kind of like its model verification numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Don't know how you can say very slim...maybe for a huge snow, but the QPF for 2-4 inches is there still for most of the state. Yeah, for TN, 2-4" is nothing new this winter. What will be will be. I'm almost ready for spring as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow, FFC forecasting mostly all snow for most of North and parts of Central GA Wed Night/THurs. That kind of surprises me. The fact tht they say accumulations likely 4 days away shocks me. Isn't it a bit early to say something so bold ? THICKNESSES INDICATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR N GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SNOW ABOUT BANKS TO CARROLL COUNTY AND N WITH A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX ABOUT AS FAR S AS WASHINGTON TO HEARD COUNTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Latest GSP AFD: LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 310 AM SUN...A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT IS SEEN BTW THE OP MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER S/W DUE TO MOVE INTO SRN PLAINS LATE WED. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STILL MORE ACUTE WITH THE WAVE THAN THE LATEST GFS...BUT IT HAS BECOME MORE ATTENUATED THAN ITS PREVIOUS FEW RUNS. ITS GOOD TO SEE THE NEW ECMWF BACK OFF THE ULVL DIV TO MORE REALISTIC LEVELS. THIS WAS CREATING TOO STRONG OF A DYNAMICAL LOW LEVEL RESPONSE AND AN OVERDOSE OF MOISTURE FLUX AND QPF. NOW THE GFS HAS BETTER SUPPORT BOTH DYNAMICALLY AND THERMALLY FROM THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GGEM REMAINS A SLOW OUTLIER. PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL BTW THE MODELS WHICH PORTEND TO PRETTY MUCH ALL SN BEGINNING A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AROUND 00Z THU. SOME OF THE SRN LOCATIONS NEAR KGRD AND ELBERTON COULD SEE A IP MIX EARLY THU AS THE STRONGER WARM NOSE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWFA. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK H85 TROF AND FAIRLY BROAD SFC REFLECTION...MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE NOMINAL...ESP CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY FOR COASTAL CONVEC IMPEDING A CONTINUOUS MOIST LLVL FLOW. THEREFORE...QPF/SN AMOUNTS SHOULDNT BE TOO HIGH. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL SN EVENT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME AFOREMENTIONED SW/RN AREAS. THINGS COULD CHANGE OF COURSE OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. A LOW END NW FLOW EVENT WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE COUNTIES INTO THU NIGHT. THE H85 FLOW IS WEAK AND BECOMES DIVERGENT...WHILE AVAILABLE MOISTURE PULLS EAST RATHER QUICKLY AFT 06Z FRI. MAX TEMPS WED SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATL...MAINTAINING A NE/LY FLOW AND WEAK CAA...YET ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT MAXES ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU WITH THE COLD MOIST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA. A BROAD SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRI AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF DECENT INSOLATION AND S/LY LLVL FLOW BY SUN. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT AN INCREASING TREND IN MAX TEMPS FRI AND SAT TO AROUND NORMAL.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I think we are sitting real good to be Sunday. If it had started NW already I would be concerned. I am not worried about moisture yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just woke up and saw the 0z Euro's 0.29" qpf/3" of snow for Katl and 0.50" qpf for Kmcn. My 0z Euro alarm clock must be becoming a weenie because the Atl snow just falls short of the 3.5" "major" threshhold that I use and, therefore, decided I didn't need to be awoken. 3" is almost always a big deal in atl. For goodness sakes, that, alone is 150% of the avg. entire winter's snowfall and happens only about every 4+ years on avg.! Also, my clock must be assuming that most of the Mcn 0.50" qpf is not snow. I suppose my clock isn't off it's rocker with that assumption as 850 0c line is a fair distance north of Mcn when precip. starts. Well, alarm or no alarm, I'm officially a happy camper with regard to the 0z Doc. Back to shuteye. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL!!! It's the snow weenie in all of us! I've added a new page on my site that I think is pretty slick. Credit goes to Curly at Michiana Weather for his great programming skills. This page will display the NWS map with watches, warnings, advisories, etc for any NWS office in the country. You simply choose the office from the drop-down box and once the map loads, click on a county. It's that easy. Below the map you will see all of the watch/warn text, no matter how many are issued for that area. You can also customize this to save your own NWS office for the default (it defaults to FFC for me) by adding ?WFO=rah (or whatever your forecast offce letters are) at the end of this link. Go here first http://www.daculawea...evere_alert.php and once you choose your office you'll notice it puts the office up on your address bar. Just save that as a favorite and you're set! Let me know if this is helpful or if you experience any problems! It might come in handy in a day or two! EDIT: I've also added customized links on my SE Products page for each of the SE offices (see link below sig) Known Issues & Messages Special Statements - This is a rare occasion when issued and is produced when there are severe warnings issued such as a Tornado Warning. These statements are updated frequently by the NWS and contains the latest additional information. The script was written without seeing the actual page and it may contain errors. This will be updated next time these special statements are issued. "Alert data is not available for the selected location" - Not all WFO's are carrying these alerts yet. Juneau and Albuquerque doesn't have much. Marine alerts are a 50/50 chance of getting an alert. "Data is not available." - Possible causes: fetching data timed out, NWS page is being updated, data is not published for that location. The alert title has a double asterisk after it (**) - An alert title is mis-matched against the desciption. This generally happens between alert expirations and updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z CMC is a huge hit for areas north of Atlanta. CMC is 850 zero line is further north than the 0z EURO or the 0z and 6z GFS. Taken literally the 0z CMC would pretty much be all rain for Atlanta and probably all snow for areas like Lake Lanier northward. Timing is a tad slower but it shows very nice Omega across the northern half of MS,AL,GA/SC and most of NC. QPF amounts look like >.50" across most of north MS, AL, GA and the upstate of SC then streaking across the NC/SC line towards the coast. CMC also depicts a near perfect damming high location in PA which pretty much stays put the whole event. Both the 0z EURO and 0z CMC are picking up on another shortwave diving thru Idaho riding fast on the heels of our late Wednesday shortwave so that will surely give the models some more hiccups in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 6z gfs Gives Eyewall 5+ inches of snow. This is just for a 24 hour period Looks like a solid 3 inches east of 85 and more for eastern piedmont and central/northern coastal plain. Southern coastal plain would have possible 850 issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Like others have said I'm happy with the EURO and GFS showing a supressed system still. The trends this year have been to adjust N and NW, especially in the last day or so before a storm. So I think this will happen again. It's just a matter of how much of an adjustment there will be. Two things to watch over the next day or so..... #1 Is the EURO strengthening the first storm too much as it moves into the NE? It has been very biased lately in doing so as well as showing too strong of a PV in SE Canada. If the EURO is incorrect and the storm is not as strong there will more of a NW jog. Most models show a very strong LP in the NE so I'm not too concerned with this. #2... As foothills as mentioned, we need to watch the new s/w coming in behind our storm. This has not really been on the models until last night. If the Euro is correct about there being a s/w diving hard and fast it could shear out and dampen the storm. Should be an interesting couple of days in Model Land so hold on and enjoy the ride guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 One thing ironic (and maybe not) but... As GaWx pointed out, for Atlanta, this week is our most climo favored week of the year and... Last year on Feb 12, 50 out of 50 states had snow. Will this storm mark that anniversary? Pics from last years Feb 12 storm https://picasaweb.google.com/stephenrbrueck/2011SoutheastSnowStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 surprised that GSP says looks like only an advisory event. things I'm reading and seeing shows WSW criteria for snow in wnc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I've added a new page on my site ........... Bookmarked! Thx, Dac! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The individual ensemble members of the 6z GFS show pretty good agreement through hr 96. The final outcome after the storm reaches the gulf coast vary, but there are quite a few snowy scenarios. Others are weaker and dampen out. One member is a slow mover and looks to be a blockbuster storm up the coast. I see a lot of potential for the stronger, wetter, and northwest trend like many of you do. Take a look: GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 is the storm not showing as strong as last night or is everyone still a sleep. not much chatter this morning. should be interesting today to watch the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 is the storm not showing as strong as last night or is everyone still a sleep. not much chatter this morning. should be interesting today to watch the models. weaker but nobody excited anyway this far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 showing weaker i guess its good to be this far out from the event. weaker but nobody excited anyway this far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 weaker but nobody excited anyway this far away I'm excited about the warm up, after this minor event for mby wed/thur. Like Robert said last night nice warm up after this!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 i noticed that Morristown TN. took down they're special weather statement concerning this storm for E. Tenn. which I was surprised this far out I would think they would leave it up until they are sure about what this storm will do. anything can happen. models will still be back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like JB's blockbuster storm up the coast call is on life support after the last 24 hours of runs. It's amazing how many storms he has killed for my area. Probably better at killing storms than radio shows..... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 i noticed that Morristown TN. took down they're special weather statement concerning this storm for E. Tenn. which I was surprised this far out I would think they would leave it up until they are sure about what this storm will do. anything can happen. models will still be back and forth. Probably based on a more southward and weaker trend. The weaker trend is exactly what we saw before the Jan 9th storm and not unexpected at this point. We should know a lot more after todays runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If it amps up more this thing wiil come futher north in the end, But if it stays weak strung out then BF will be on the inside looking out! Should get the track nailed down with tonight's 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z CMC is a huge hit for areas north of Atlanta. CMC is 850 zero line is further north than the 0z EURO or the 0z and 6z GFS. Taken literally the 0z CMC would pretty much be all rain for Atlanta and probably all snow for areas like Lake Lanier northward. Timing is a tad slower but it shows very nice Omega across the northern half of MS,AL,GA/SC and most of NC. QPF amounts look like >.50" across most of north MS, AL, GA and the upstate of SC then streaking across the NC/SC line towards the coast. CMC also depicts a near perfect damming high location in PA which pretty much stays put the whole event. Both the 0z EURO and 0z CMC are picking up on another shortwave diving thru Idaho riding fast on the heels of our late Wednesday shortwave so that will surely give the models some more hiccups in future runs. The CMC looks great for the northern burbs of ATL up to your area and north, but we really can't afford to have it move any farther north. Looking at the p-type maps I'm mostly (heavy) snow but we all know what tends to happen about a day out... GFS also has me on the line (and much of N GA I'd say). 850 0C line lines up with what FFC is saying (mostly snow from Banks-Carroll counties northward). Us GA folks should still be pulling for a southward trend at 12Z IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I think things look pretty good still being 96 hours out. I would think the Apps runner scenario is not likely (knock on wood). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like JB's blockbuster storm up the coast call is on life support after the last 24 hours of runs. It's amazing how many storms he has killed for my area. Probably better at killing storms than radio shows..... Lol Actually J.B. is the best at what he does. If he says blockbuster storm then I think we have a great shot at just that. Haters gonna hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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