Isopycnic Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Discuss Discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Another positive is this storm hits the gulf in 100 hours. The Euro has been relatively consistent for 3 runs now (I think) and now the GGEM/UKMET are falling inline with the Euro, and GFS is trying hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The Euro is the northern outlier at this point. UKMET is a bit father south than the Euro. This is shaping up really good, still no high confidence..yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm certainly excited but I've been burned by the warm nose and being so close on the edge to those 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Anyone remember how many days out the last storm was before we realized it was going waaay inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Anyone remember how many days out the last storm was before we realized it was going waaay inland? Well it was a day....BUT every model was saying it was going inland about two days before hand except for I think the Euro? It also very inconsistent run to run from every model except the UKMET and then the CMC really jumped on board IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Approximations From ECMWF 12z Feb 5 2011: ATL 1.15" AHN 1.30" MAC 1.00" CHA .75" MEM .40" BNA .40" TYS .55" TRI .70" HSV .45" LIT .65" GSP 1.25" CLT 1.30" CAE 1.30" HKY 1.15" AVL 1.10" GSO 1.15" RDU 1.35" FAY 1.50" CHS 1.25" ILM 1.50" RIC 1.55" JAN .95" DCA .90" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The jma came north. The euro is not the farthest north. Western nc e tenn and 40 north gets crushed this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Let's have this trend south a little before the north trend starts..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The jma came north. The euro is not the farthest north. Western nc e tenn and 40 north gets crushed this run. I just saw that, and yes, some places get slammed, hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Approximations From ECMWF 12z Feb 5 2011: I've got the precise totals from the TXT model output Precip Totals Verbatim: BNA: .48" (All Snow) ATL: 1.03" (Rain for most of it verbatim, maybe around .1 or so as snow at the end) TYS: .59 (All Snow) GSP: 1.43" (850mb temps approach 0 at the height of precip, so will need to look at soundings later to determine if there is a warmer layer above 850mb... but mostly Snow) AVL: 1.12" (All Snow) CLT: 1.16" (Same Deal as GSP, maybe slightly colder) GSO: 1.41" (All Snow) RAH: 1.35" (Snow to start... warms up at 850mb but not at the surface so likely a changeover to freezing rain / sleet, then back to snow before ending. About .6 or so is all snow) CAE: .99" (All Rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The jma came north. The euro is not the farthest north. Western nc e tenn and 40 north gets crushed this run. Yeah, looks very euro'ish, just warmer for some reason at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Anyone remember how many days out the last storm was before we realized it was going waaay inland? I am cautiously opptimistic, like everyone else. If this pup is gonna trend inland/apps or whatever disaster scenerio one could think of we will see evidence of it over the next 36-48 hours. We are just getting inside the higher confidence window in model world. So Tonight and tommorrow at lunch will be telling in regards to trends. Over the past 24 hours, the trend has been our friend in the SE> Keep your fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Approximations From ECMWF 12z Feb 5 2011: Epic if that verified. I would gladly take that then welcome the warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I've got the precise totals from the TXT model output Precip Totals Verbatim: BNA: .48" (All Snow) ATL: 1.03" (Rain for most of it verbatim, maybe around .1 or so as snow at the end) TYS: .59 (All Snow) GSP: 1.43" (850mb temps approach 0 at the height of precip, so will need to look at soundings later to determine if there is a warmer layer above 850mb... but mostly Snow) AVL: 1.12" (All Snow) CLT: 1.16" (Same Deal as GSP, maybe slightly colder) GSO: 1.41" (All Snow) RAH: 1.35" (Snow to start... warms up at 850mb but not at the surface so likely a changeover to freezing rain / sleet, then back to snow before ending. About .6 or so is all snow) CAE: .99" (All Rain) Great storm for everyone. Though this will change, I would love for this to be the exact storm outplay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 1) Per 12Z JMA, most of GA gets little snow due to too far north track. However, with some CAD, it could be a very nice IP and especially ZR for N GA! 2) 12Z UKMET has gone quite a bit south to a classic weak N GOM Miller A, which woudl easily be cold enough for S but precip. may be light ATL-AHN. This track would seem to be south enough to give MCN some snow. Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 do you have lyh...thanks in advance 1.26 (All Snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, looks very euro'ish, just warmer for some reason at 120. JMA would not be good for SN-lovers in the SE, look at the position of the 850 low, and it tracks through VA on its way out. Good run for central and western TN, KY, and VA-DC, but bad for the SE as the mid level flow is out of the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If I had to make a guess, and i don't have the exact soundings so it is just a guess, but verbatim atlanta to athens would likely get 3 to 6 before some kind of changeover..to what remains to be seen but could be significant amounts of sleet/freezing rain. Based on where the 4c 850mb temps are, it will probably be a relatively narrow band. Rome to hartwell to charlotte to just north of rdu gets over a foot. That sounds great! I'm northwest of Atlanta so I'm guessing I see 6-10" per the amounts you just stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 talk about close 0.2 850's with 0.4 at the surface during the heaviest precip This for Canton K47A in case anyone was wondering ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: 47A LAT= 34.30 LON= -84.42 ELE= 1221 12Z FEB05 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 05-FEB 2.7 6.8 1011 98 8 0.00 562 554 SAT 18Z 05-FEB 5.0 -0.3 1012 69 13 0.01 557 547 SUN 00Z 06-FEB 1.1 0.7 1014 78 13 0.00 557 546 SUN 06Z 06-FEB -2.0 2.3 1016 87 7 0.00 558 545 SUN 12Z 06-FEB -2.6 1.8 1017 87 3 0.00 559 545 SUN 18Z 06-FEB 9.1 1.1 1017 47 37 0.00 561 547 MON 00Z 07-FEB 4.3 2.9 1016 70 45 0.00 560 546 MON 06Z 07-FEB 1.2 3.3 1017 81 52 0.00 559 545 MON 12Z 07-FEB -0.6 2.6 1015 86 49 0.00 557 545 MON 18Z 07-FEB 9.4 2.0 1011 69 84 0.06 553 544 TUE 00Z 08-FEB 4.6 -1.2 1011 96 72 0.08 543 534 TUE 06Z 08-FEB 0.2 -6.4 1018 84 15 0.01 548 534 TUE 12Z 08-FEB -2.4 -4.7 1022 77 11 0.00 557 539 TUE 18Z 08-FEB 5.0 -4.7 1024 44 24 0.00 558 539 WED 00Z 09-FEB 1.0 -4.7 1024 62 50 0.00 559 539 WED 06Z 09-FEB -3.2 -0.6 1026 72 43 0.00 562 542 WED 12Z 09-FEB -3.7 -1.3 1028 71 40 0.00 563 541 WED 18Z 09-FEB 7.3 -1.6 1025 42 52 0.00 564 544 THU 00Z 10-FEB 4.6 -1.0 1019 63 90 0.00 562 546 THU 06Z 10-FEB 1.8 -2.3 1017 91 100 0.16 559 545 THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.4 0.2 1010 97 90 0.68 553 545 THU 18Z 10-FEB 1.6 -2.7 1012 84 53 0.12 553 543 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -0.8 -4.2 1014 86 21 0.00 556 544 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -4.6 -4.1 1017 91 27 0.00 554 541 FRI 12Z 11-FEB -4.9 -5.5 1018 90 26 0.00 551 537 FRI 18Z 11-FEB 2.5 -6.0 1019 67 21 0.00 549 534 SAT 00Z 12-FEB -2.8 -5.8 1019 75 13 0.00 546 531 SAT 06Z 12-FEB -8.2 -5.3 1023 69 26 0.00 547 529 SAT 12Z 12-FEB -9.0 -4.4 1026 72 16 0.00 552 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Not wanting to hype anything, but a certain guy with the initials J.B. is predicting a monster storm roaring out the gulf next week. Courtesy of his pay video last night: In all the years that I've gone back and researched, I cannot find anything to match the severity of what's coming next week. It will be the week of all winter weeks. Will be like surviving a nuclear war and coming out of the bunker afterwards to find devastation. Severe cold and a superstorm ...that is perhaps unequaled in winter weather history. A little much, eh? Went into details about phasing, '93, etc. And now TWC is showing a graphic with a Low track similar to the Euro. The media hype machine is in full effect. Next thing you know, Cantore will be in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 KTRI for the east TN folks ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z FEB05 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 05-FEB 3.3 7.4 1007 96 69 0.00 560 555 SAT 18Z 05-FEB 6.9 0.9 1005 72 12 0.02 551 547 SUN 00Z 06-FEB 0.2 -5.3 1011 73 32 0.00 550 540 SUN 06Z 06-FEB -2.4 -5.4 1016 82 20 0.00 554 542 SUN 12Z 06-FEB -3.9 -2.2 1016 88 5 0.00 556 543 SUN 18Z 06-FEB 6.8 -0.3 1015 50 25 0.00 557 544 MON 00Z 07-FEB 2.7 1.0 1015 67 61 0.00 556 543 MON 06Z 07-FEB -0.3 1.2 1016 80 77 0.00 554 541 MON 12Z 07-FEB -1.5 1.2 1014 81 69 0.00 553 541 MON 18Z 07-FEB 8.7 1.9 1009 48 71 0.00 550 543 TUE 00Z 08-FEB 3.9 0.2 1007 84 88 0.08 542 537 TUE 06Z 08-FEB -2.4 -7.6 1014 91 62 0.12 539 528 TUE 12Z 08-FEB -6.3 -11.8 1021 77 15 0.03 548 531 TUE 18Z 08-FEB -0.6 -9.3 1022 51 32 0.00 549 532 WED 00Z 09-FEB -3.7 -9.8 1025 63 44 0.00 550 530 WED 06Z 09-FEB -6.7 -10.6 1028 66 17 0.00 554 532 WED 12Z 09-FEB -6.4 -8.0 1030 56 61 0.00 555 532 WED 18Z 09-FEB 3.2 -4.8 1025 33 55 0.00 557 537 THU 00Z 10-FEB -2.2 -4.6 1024 64 44 0.00 556 537 THU 06Z 10-FEB -2.9 -5.0 1022 72 92 0.03 554 536 THU 12Z 10-FEB -3.7 -3.6 1015 93 99 0.37 550 538 THU 18Z 10-FEB -3.5 -6.1 1014 88 95 0.35 544 533 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -4.6 -7.2 1015 93 50 0.05 549 536 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -6.9 -6.9 1018 93 41 0.01 549 535 FRI 12Z 11-FEB -8.7 -7.1 1018 90 67 0.01 546 532 FRI 18Z 11-FEB -0.1 -7.0 1016 63 52 0.00 543 530 SAT 00Z 12-FEB -7.8 -7.6 1017 85 11 0.00 540 527 SAT 06Z 12-FEB -11.8 -8.9 1021 75 56 0.00 541 525 SAT 12Z 12-FEB -9.0 -10.9 1023 79 3 0.00 542 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 KTRI for the east TN folks ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z FEB05 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 05-FEB 3.3 7.4 1007 96 69 0.00 560 555 SAT 18Z 05-FEB 6.9 0.9 1005 72 12 0.02 551 547 SUN 00Z 06-FEB 0.2 -5.3 1011 73 32 0.00 550 540 SUN 06Z 06-FEB -2.4 -5.4 1016 82 20 0.00 554 542 SUN 12Z 06-FEB -3.9 -2.2 1016 88 5 0.00 556 543 SUN 18Z 06-FEB 6.8 -0.3 1015 50 25 0.00 557 544 MON 00Z 07-FEB 2.7 1.0 1015 67 61 0.00 556 543 MON 06Z 07-FEB -0.3 1.2 1016 80 77 0.00 554 541 MON 12Z 07-FEB -1.5 1.2 1014 81 69 0.00 553 541 MON 18Z 07-FEB 8.7 1.9 1009 48 71 0.00 550 543 TUE 00Z 08-FEB 3.9 0.2 1007 84 88 0.08 542 537 TUE 06Z 08-FEB -2.4 -7.6 1014 91 62 0.12 539 528 TUE 12Z 08-FEB -6.3 -11.8 1021 77 15 0.03 548 531 TUE 18Z 08-FEB -0.6 -9.3 1022 51 32 0.00 549 532 WED 00Z 09-FEB -3.7 -9.8 1025 63 44 0.00 550 530 WED 06Z 09-FEB -6.7 -10.6 1028 66 17 0.00 554 532 WED 12Z 09-FEB -6.4 -8.0 1030 56 61 0.00 555 532 WED 18Z 09-FEB 3.2 -4.8 1025 33 55 0.00 557 537 THU 00Z 10-FEB -2.2 -4.6 1024 64 44 0.00 556 537 THU 06Z 10-FEB -2.9 -5.0 1022 72 92 0.03 554 536 THU 12Z 10-FEB -3.7 -3.6 1015 93 99 0.37 550 538 THU 18Z 10-FEB -3.5 -6.1 1014 88 95 0.35 544 533 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -4.6 -7.2 1015 93 50 0.05 549 536 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -6.9 -6.9 1018 93 41 0.01 549 535 FRI 12Z 11-FEB -8.7 -7.1 1018 90 67 0.01 546 532 FRI 18Z 11-FEB -0.1 -7.0 1016 63 52 0.00 543 530 SAT 00Z 12-FEB -7.8 -7.6 1017 85 11 0.00 540 527 SAT 06Z 12-FEB -11.8 -8.9 1021 75 56 0.00 541 525 SAT 12Z 12-FEB -9.0 -10.9 1023 79 3 0.00 542 523 Where do you get this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 KTRI for the east TN folks ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z FEB05 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 05-FEB 3.3 7.4 1007 96 69 0.00 560 555 SAT 18Z 05-FEB 6.9 0.9 1005 72 12 0.02 551 547 SUN 00Z 06-FEB 0.2 -5.3 1011 73 32 0.00 550 540 SUN 06Z 06-FEB -2.4 -5.4 1016 82 20 0.00 554 542 SUN 12Z 06-FEB -3.9 -2.2 1016 88 5 0.00 556 543 SUN 18Z 06-FEB 6.8 -0.3 1015 50 25 0.00 557 544 MON 00Z 07-FEB 2.7 1.0 1015 67 61 0.00 556 543 MON 06Z 07-FEB -0.3 1.2 1016 80 77 0.00 554 541 MON 12Z 07-FEB -1.5 1.2 1014 81 69 0.00 553 541 MON 18Z 07-FEB 8.7 1.9 1009 48 71 0.00 550 543 TUE 00Z 08-FEB 3.9 0.2 1007 84 88 0.08 542 537 TUE 06Z 08-FEB -2.4 -7.6 1014 91 62 0.12 539 528 TUE 12Z 08-FEB -6.3 -11.8 1021 77 15 0.03 548 531 TUE 18Z 08-FEB -0.6 -9.3 1022 51 32 0.00 549 532 WED 00Z 09-FEB -3.7 -9.8 1025 63 44 0.00 550 530 WED 06Z 09-FEB -6.7 -10.6 1028 66 17 0.00 554 532 WED 12Z 09-FEB -6.4 -8.0 1030 56 61 0.00 555 532 WED 18Z 09-FEB 3.2 -4.8 1025 33 55 0.00 557 537 THU 00Z 10-FEB -2.2 -4.6 1024 64 44 0.00 556 537 THU 06Z 10-FEB -2.9 -5.0 1022 72 92 0.03 554 536 THU 12Z 10-FEB -3.7 -3.6 1015 93 99 0.37 550 538 THU 18Z 10-FEB -3.5 -6.1 1014 88 95 0.35 544 533 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -4.6 -7.2 1015 93 50 0.05 549 536 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -6.9 -6.9 1018 93 41 0.01 549 535 FRI 12Z 11-FEB -8.7 -7.1 1018 90 67 0.01 546 532 FRI 18Z 11-FEB -0.1 -7.0 1016 63 52 0.00 543 530 SAT 00Z 12-FEB -7.8 -7.6 1017 85 11 0.00 540 527 SAT 06Z 12-FEB -11.8 -8.9 1021 75 56 0.00 541 525 SAT 12Z 12-FEB -9.0 -10.9 1023 79 3 0.00 542 523 More like NE TN. Try Cha for SE TN, TYS for middle E TN I'm glad someone is putting out QPFs for East TN. For a while there it was like the storm just magically jumped from GA to central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 In my opinion the last run of the Euro was much better for you guys in GA, because the surface low wasn't so strong that it drew up all the WAA aloft. You need a weaker low in GA to keep the Warm Air Aloft in Georgia at bay. True but It's mostly about the track, as larry and I already noted, we need the low to track about 50 to 75 miles further south. That is the climo favorable track and time and time again it's proven true. This storm reminds me a lot of the past few though on how it's being shown at this distance in time. 5 days out though and way too much can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Guys let's not quote these really long soundings or maps...just delete the bulk of it and then give your comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 More like NE TN. Try Cha for SE TN, TYS for middle E TN I'm glad someone is putting out QPFs for East TN. For a while there it was like the storm just magically jumped from GA to central NC. Please don't start this tn stuff again. Tn was mentioned in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The euro slp track over the southern deep south, verbatim, doesn't favor an all snow scenario in NC. Would probably be a lot of sleet or grauple over central and southern portions. Obviously it could change, but the warm nose in situations like this can sometimes be very high up in the atmosphere, in the 700-600MB range. Just enough warmth to change you over to sleet/grauple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Please don't start this tn stuff again. Tn was mentioned in the other thread. Not by much. I'm not arguing. I'm making a very clear point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Not by much. I'm not arguing. I'm making a very clear point. This is not the place for it. If you want to complain, take it to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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