ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow, that's pretty good then. That stuff will not go anywhere. Yeah...I'm actually often amazed at the difference between there and even near downtown like where we have our GTGs (just east of downtown) just 3 or 4 miles away. Its days like we have had the last two where the difference starts to happen the most...those days where its 34-35F up there and 40F in the torching busy intersections lower down. But that stuff is pretty solid, it will be interesting to see how it lasts over the next month or so. I'm hoping it only melts some and then we add on a nice rebuilder late in the month and into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah...I'm actually often amazed at the difference between there and even near downtown like where we have our GTGs (just east of downtown) just 3 or 4 miles away. Its days like we have had the last two where the difference starts to happen the most...those days where its 34-35F up there and 40F in the torching busy intersections lower down. But that stuff is pretty solid, it will be interesting to see how it lasts over the next month or so. I'm hoping it only melts some and then we add on a nice rebuilder late in the month and into early March. I have the same issue, only with overnight mins. Those nights like last night where it's pretty mild, make or break my area. Nights like that are when the suburbs fall to 32 at like 6pm and it takes me until 2am. I'm not in a very urban area either, but just enough to keep me from radiating well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Will I am jealous. You have way more snow OTG Only around 24" here. High was around 29" I will catch you someday, and that baldie in CT too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The torch has been in DC Through 2/6 DCA: +1.7 NYC: -0.1 BOS: -3.0 Total: -1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It's the overall feeling. People get spoiled, and then the first mild period in February and everyone is saying how they saw Robins today, and the Petunias are coming up. Next week may have some mild days too, but that doesn't mean we have the chances for a couple of Miller B's. Another possibility we may have is alternating cold/warm. In other words, I could see a Miller B, then perhaps a warm up a couple of days later, and then a cool down with another storm chance. Just another scenario. That may be partly my fault. That post I made this morning was really to get heads around the idea that the spring recovery is already in the early stages. Particularly timing-wise, in the sense that we are thawing in February, not in January - ie, using up what little time is left in the Meteorological winter. It was really more of a temporal issue, along with some physical descriptions. But it seems some are running to the grousing bank with it, though. In 1888, there was not much snow that year and February turned mild toward the end. Given the weather to date and the fact that it was already mild heading into March, most had consigned the winter to done. This was also true in in the 1717, where and when they had comparatively lighter winter conditions prior to the 3 weeks of history set between the end of February and into March. This year we have a solar minimum and the tumbling AO as we type. The extend Euro and GFS members have a -NAO returning. All of these are heavily correlated to spring cut-off bombs ( btw ). So, yes that recovery has begun, but the trip out could just be one hell of a ride! I did mention the snow pack taking the beating, and it has. I am not sure if we will surpass those, what may be the season pack - high values last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 You've had a phenomenal winter? Seriously? it's been very good here but nothing unprecedented. Other areas obviously have been record breaking, but most of the interior #s I have seen haven't been that amazing. I noticed Hubbdave who's not too far from you has only had around 60", which I'm guessing is under his seasonal average. Overall, today looks like a beautiful day. Noticed areas near I93/ rt 3/128 already nearing 40, hopefully putting a significant dent in the snowpack. lol I'm currently at 67" as of this morning with a solid 24-30" snowpack IMBY I believe our seasonal avg is around 75" considering we have a good 4-6wks of Winter left, I would say yes that's not too bad of a Winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Others have hinted that a late February thaw might have a hard time getting into the Northeast, at least compared to points westward. GFS has been showing this trend for a number of runs, with NNE getting to normal or a bit above, at best, while in IL (which I track because daughter and family live there) has been shown with 40s/50s, even 60s during the 2nd week out. Of course, that midwest torch has stayed out at D10+ for much of the past week's runs without getting any closer to the present, kind of like when we were awaiting the cold in early winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 lol I'm currently at 67" as of this morning with a solid 24-30" snowpack IMBY I believe our seasonal avg is around 75" considering we have a good 4-6wks of Winter left, I would say yes that's not too bad of a Winter thus far. BIrving thinks Bedford NH at under 500 feet just SW of MHT is the new Mt. Washington. I think he expects like 90" of snow per year on avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 That may be partly my fault. That post I made this morning was really to get heads around the idea that the spring recovery is already in the early stages. Particularly timing-wise, in the sense that we are thawing in February, not in January - ie, using up what little time is left in the Meteorological winter. It was really more of a temporal issue, along with some physical descriptions. But it seems some are running to the grousing bank with it, though. In 1888, there was not much snow that year and February turned mild toward the end. Given the weather to date and the fact that it was already mild heading into March, most had consigned the winter to done. This was also true in in the 1717, where and when they had comparatively lighter winter conditions prior to the 3 weeks of history set between the end of February and into March. This year we have a solar minimum and the tumbling AO as we type. The extend Euro and GFS members have a -NAO returning. All of these are heavily correlated to spring cut-off bombs ( btw ). So, yes that recovery has begun, but the trip out could just be one hell of a ride! I did mention the snow pack taking the beating, and it has. I am not sure if we will surpass those, what may be the season pack - high values last week. I think you can lock in a cut-off bomb this March....winter is not over by a long shot, but it does blow to waste the next few weeks with such a deep snowpack and the met clock ever ticking..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 lol I'm currently at 67" as of this morning with a solid 24-30" snowpack IMBY I believe our seasonal avg is around 75" considering we have a good 4-6wks of Winter left, I would say yes that's not too bad of a Winter thus far. Hey, we are winthin a half inch! (66.5" here). Even last year we had 76" and that seemed lame... Hoping to break 80 (or 90) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think that I'll see 5" or under the rest of Feb, then 25-40" for the duration of the season.....little more in the elevated interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think that I'll see 5" or under the rest of Feb, then 25-40" for the duration of the season.....little more in the elevated interior. ORH only needs 50" to break the record I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think that I'll see 5" or under the rest of Feb, then 25-40" for the duration of the season.....little more in the elevated interior. I'm hoping for one or two late month coastal bomb threats but being out in NW Ma. I'll take my chances with a swfe also. The next 10 days doesn't look great but I'm optimistic for another 10" in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTVWeather Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Nice call on the thaw out ORH_wxman. After that brief Arctic surge for Tuesday, we'll be on the West side of the ridge through Friday. It will be quite the shocker to have some 40's around in Burlington and the Champlain Valley. It'll probably feel like summer! Looks like another Arctic surge will be on its way for the 19th/20th time frame. I'm not liking the soaker that the GFSx is trying to push out for the middle of next week (~16th). With all the snow pack across Vermont, I'm wondering about potential flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Great call it would appear from over 10 days out Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Great call it would appear from over 10 days out Will. Thanks Jerry. I don't like torches but I think this one was pretty easy to recognize. All the large scale pattern indicators were there for a thaw as outlined in the first post. But thankfully it looks more of like a 3 days thaw vs a 5 day thaw, so on the shorter end. Don S had been hitting this idea before even I made this thread IIRC. Some don't like to hear it, but when the signals are there I'll try to say it how it is regardless. I think Friday is the warmest of the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Thanks Jerry. I don't like torches but I think this one was pretty easy to recognize. All the large scale pattern indicators were there for a thaw as outlined in the first post. But thankfully it looks more of like a 3 days thaw vs a 5 day thaw, so on the shorter end. Don S had been hitting this idea before even I made this thread IIRC. Some don't like to hear it, but when the signals are there I'll try to say it how it is regardless. I think Friday is the warmest of the days. i gave you props a few days ago, in the other thread great job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 A true thaw to me is when you stay above freezing for the minimum temps. I think we get down to 32 Wednesday night. I guess Thursday night is the question mark. Friday night is a lock to stay above in NE, but the latest GFS may freez e us up out here before dawn on Saturday. I also don't think the dew points will be devastating ...maybe most elevated in that period Friday night before the fropa. Thanks Jerry. I don't like torches but I think this one was pretty easy to recognize. All the large scale pattern indicators were there for a thaw as outlined in the first post. But thankfully it looks more of like a 3 days thaw vs a 5 day thaw, so on the shorter end. Don S had been hitting this idea before even I made this thread IIRC. Some don't like to hear it, but when the signals are there I'll try to say it how it is regardless. I think Friday is the warmest of the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 A true thaw to me is when you stay above freezing for the minimum temps. I think we get down to 32 Wednesday night. I guess Thursday night is the question mark. Friday night is a lock to stay above in NE, but the latest GFS may freez e us up out here before dawn on Saturday. I also don't think the dew points will be devastating ...maybe most elevated in that period Friday night before the fropa. Eh, I don't. Many sheltered spots had nights below freezing in the hideous Jan 2008 thaw...didn't mean it was not an all out torch. Highs were near 60F some of those days. I don't think this milder period will be devastatingly mild like that one was or many previous ones, but it will be hard to claim a 3 day stretch of +10 or warmer weather isn't a thaw. I suppose its subjective to each person, but I know I'd consider it a thaw if we are 3 day composite of double digit departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I think that I'll see 5" or under the rest of Feb, then 25-40" for the duration of the season.....little more in the elevated interior. I feel like NNE is still due for a biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 2 and a half day thaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 lost the snowpack it was cool and very rare to have such a unique situation that unfolded last month you guys above NYC will probably get rocked in march see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 lost the snowpack it was cool and very rare to have such a unique situation that unfolded last month you guys above NYC will probably get rocked in march see ya. Still holding on here but barely in the lawns...woods are 100% cover. 44.3/38 Scattered Clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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