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Feb. 4th - 5th Snow Event


Powerball

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WOW.

now up to .3 to .4 close to me and over .5 in a big blob over INDY?

latest RR has the same thing.

I can't believe that would verify.

I have a steady light snow but he radar is not perfect but is getting better.

Thats more of a Terre Haute special but its ok, you're not from here. ;)

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NAM_221_2011020506_F18_PCPIN_18_HR.png

WOW.

now up to .3 to .4 close to me and over .5 in a big blob over INDY?

latest RR has the same thing.

I can't believe that would verify.

I have a steady light snow but he radar is not perfect but is getting better.

What has been seen can not be unseen! :snowman: :snowman: :wub: :wub:

If only Josh was up to see this.

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Yes Id say the Eastern tier of counties, and maybe Lenawee,

Looks like they will not... This forecast is a little weird. LOL

Overnight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. Southwest wind around 8 mph.

Saturday: Snow likely after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 29. South southwest wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Fine with me, I love when DTX busts..

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Wow...6z NAM has 0.44" at DTW today and 6z GFS has 0.32". This is unbelieveable. The forecast as of 2 hours ago was for Partly Sunny. The 6z NAM has 0.53" at KONZ (a small airport right on the river in Grosse Ile, so closer to me than DTW even).

ISSUED 418 AM EST SAT FEB 5 2011

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE SUPPORTING

A MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL IMPACT MAINLY

THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COMPACT UPPER LOW IS NOW SHOWN ROTATING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL GET EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS A STRENGTHENING

UPPER JET DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN UPPER WAVE TO THE

NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS DAMPENED MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER

MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED. THIS ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER

THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN

EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAD INDICATED. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE APPEAR

WELL INITIALIZED AND SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT

PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO CENTRAL

OHIO THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL INDICATE STRENGTHENING MID TROPOSPHERIC DYNAMICS

WITHIN A WELL DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE

UPPER LOW TRACK. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE BRING THIS STRONG FORCING INTO

THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF AN ADRIAN TO DOWNTOWN DETROIT LINE. WHILE

THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER SE

MI...MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE METRO DETROIT AREA THIS AFTERNOON

ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT /700MB MIXING RATIOS RISING TO 3 G/KG

BY 21Z/. LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER IS EXPECTED TO

BE BRIEF...GENERALLY OVER A 3 TO 5 HOUR TIME PERIOD BETWEEN 18Z AND

23Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO HOWEVER INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME

DENDRITES ALONG WITH DECREASING STABILITY ABOVE 700MB...SUGGESTING

SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WILL

INTRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SE OF AN ADRIAN

TO DETROIT LINE. THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW AND RESIDUAL

LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA

WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE SNOW. CURRENT SFC OBS

OVER MISSOURI SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY UP TO A

HOWELL TO PORT HURON LINE. THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SHOULD

REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH AND TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SNOW

TODAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERNS GIVEN THE DEPICTION ON SATELLITE THAT

THIS SYSTEM MAY ACHIEVE SOME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. THIS WILL

CERTAINLY BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY IN THE EVENT THAT HEADLINES

WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED.

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