buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 quite amazing differences at under 24 hrs...good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 03z RUC (which is a more officialish run) has a sub-1000mb low over Erie, PA. PERFECT heavy snow positioning for us. The omega values (in fact, a -10 or lower bullseye overhead for one frame) and DPVA are both impressive too. Combined with the cold air pooling aloft this may be a fun little storm, even if the amounts aren't insane. But oh how I would love for this storm to overachieve... What is your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 What is your location? Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 f/\ck the models if they can't come to an agreement under 24 hrs.... ...it's radar time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 03z RUC (which is a more officialish run) has a sub-1000mb low over Erie, PA. PERFECT heavy snow positioning for us. The omega values (in fact, a -10 or lower bullseye overhead for one frame) and DPVA are both impressive too. Combined with the cold air pooling aloft this may be a fun little storm, even if the amounts aren't insane. But oh how I would love for this storm to overachieve... Well, since the forecast still says "partly sunny, high 30", I think a T-0.1" would already be overachieving . Seriously though, I know what you mean. per the NAM its a quick hitting period of heavy snow. Per this, visibility is 0.0 miles at 4pm lol http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KDTW.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 iln now saying a mix of rain and snow for cmh Saturday: Snow before 3pm, then rain and snow likely. High near 33. Calm wind becoming south between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 24. West wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is starting to look like a pretty potent little system from southern Illinois through Indiana, and into southeast Michigan/Ohio. HRRR looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well, since the forecast still says "partly sunny, high 30", I think a T-0.1" would already be overachieving . Seriously though, I know what you mean. per the NAM its a quick hitting period of heavy snow. Per this, visibility is 0.0 miles at 4pm lol http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KDTW.txt Yeah, there's quite a bit of convective instability with this system, so I do expect brief bursts of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FLURRIES HERE. BANDING OF SNOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AS HI RES MODELS DEPICT. JUST AN UPDATE SO YOU KNOW THIS IS HAPPENING THIS FAR NORTH, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW CLOSING IN ON STL AND GAINING IN COVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm not even waiting for the Euro. I like a band of about 4-6" (maybe isolated higher) across much of central Indiana with the heaviest totals near and north of I-70. LAF will be in or very near this band...I'm gonna nervously ride the 2-4" call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, I saw it. Unfortunately, microcast fringes me. Oh well, it's the trends. pfttt check this out http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_0z/jloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm not even waiting for the Euro. I like a band of about 4-6" (maybe isolated higher) across much of central Indiana with the heaviest totals near and north of I-70. LAF will be in or very near this band...I'm gonna nervously ride the 2-4" call here. Completely agree. Wouldn't be surprised as you said earlier to see some amounts flirt with WSW criteria, especially with the banding and lift that this storm has going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 f/\ck the models if they can't come to an agreement under 24 hrs.... ...it's radar time It's a joke, but looking at radar looks like nam is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 IND aviation PROGGED LIFT IS DEEP AND RATHER ROBUST ALONG WITH A RATHER DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE... SUGGESTING SNOWFALL WILL PROBABLY BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LIFR RESTRICTIONS AS WELL WHERE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS SET UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Completely agree. Wouldn't be surprised as you said earlier to see some amounts flirt with WSW criteria, especially with the banding and lift that this storm has going for it. The high amounts will be local so I dont see them issuing a WSW unless some really good bands get going and stall out. Some sharp cutoffs. You may get 5 inches but your neighbor 5 houses down may get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FLURRIES HERE. BANDING OF SNOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AS HI RES MODELS DEPICT. JUST AN UPDATE SO YOU KNOW THIS IS HAPPENING THIS FAR NORTH, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW CLOSING IN ON STL AND GAINING IN COVERAGE. GOOD TO KNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The high amounts will be local so I dont see them issuing a WSW unless some really good bands get going and stall out. Some sharp cutoffs. You may get 5 inches but your neighbor 5 houses down may get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GOOD TO KNOW. HA! I think STL to LAF gets 2-4..5 maybe. this is def gonna be big for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 look at the banding on the northern fringe the HRRR is showing. Normally, I wouldn't pay much attention to a model like this, but it did so well during the blizzard I figure it might be good for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 look at the banding on the northern fringe the HRRR is showing. Normally, I wouldn't pay much attention to a model like this, but it did so well during the blizzard I figure it might be good for something. I even saw the WRF and it hits us good. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I even saw the WRF and it hits us good. What do you think? If I was EC and making a forecast for us I'd up pops to categorical for tomorrow afternoon/evening and throw in some light accums. Tough to get more aggressive than that attm because of how sharp the northern cutoff is and how close we are too it. Keep watching wv/radar/short term models and adjust accordingly tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The high amounts will be local so I dont see them issuing a WSW unless some really good bands get going and stall out. Some sharp cutoffs. You may get 5 inches but your neighbor 5 houses down may get an inch. I never said I thought they would issue a WSW, I said some areas would flirt with criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If I was EC and making a forecast for us I'd up pops to categorical for tomorrow afternoon/evening and throw in some light accums. Tough to get more aggressive than that attm because of how sharp the northern cutoff is and how close we are too it. Keep watching wv/radar/short term models and adjust accordingly tomorrow morning. I agree. This morning this system wasn't even looking like it would hit us let alone WNY. Crazy models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If I was EC and making a forecast for us I'd up pops to categorical for tomorrow afternoon/evening and throw in some light accums. Tough to get more aggressive than that attm because of how sharp the northern cutoff is and how close we are too it. Keep watching wv/radar/short term models and adjust accordingly tomorrow morning. i love how the 0z gfs backed off with the warmth after next week :thumbsup:snowpack should be terrific with this extended cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Numerous 5" reports all across Northern Arkansas and Southwestern and Southern Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I agree. This morning this system wasn't even looking like it would hit us let alone WNY. Crazy models lol EC has been saying an inch or so tomorrow evening for last 24 hrs. Don Paul in Buffalo thinks nothing from WNY/PA border northwards. Looks like an inch or more here is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Numerous 5" reports all across Northern Arkansas and Southwestern and Southern Missouri A member here from Oklahoma is over 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 EC has been saying an inch or so tomorrow evening for last 24 hrs. Don Paul in Buffalo thinks nothing from WNY/PA border northwards. Looks like an inch or more here is a possibility. Text from EC shows no accums for Toronto for tomorrow/tomorrow night as far as I can tell. And Don Paul upped his forecast big time on the 11 o'clock broadcast. Farnell out of Global kept everything south of Toronto but said it'd be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 EC has been saying an inch or so tomorrow evening for last 24 hrs. Don Paul in Buffalo thinks nothing from WNY/PA border northwards. Looks like an inch or more here is a possibility. Don is calling for 5-8" for BUF and i guess similar amounts up your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ok where did this come from, my co-worker who I relieved was like "so you see the models trend with the snow" I was like "with the monday thing ya looking ok" he was like "no tomorrow" wtf face = me right now Honestly I wasn't expecting this but that upper low is potent and has already surprised down to the Southwest. Also I have yet to hear anything about snow for tomorrow from the media, if this were to be a surpriser and us get 2-4 with 0 being called for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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