michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 wtf!? I have been paying zero attention to whatever is going on tomorrow, and all of a sudden the 00z NAM wants to throw a surprise snowstorm to Detroit and southern burbs tomorrow? Looking at the twister data it has me in 0.30" qpf or so. If it verifes, we will be seeing the deepest snow since Jan 1999 here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec We shall see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z RGEM is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Eh, it's not like this is still 24 hours out from starting. Trust me I'm not a NWS basher, but I think there is enough evidence to start bumping accumulations. The Marion County (Indy) zone has 1" total that was just updated at 10PM...the NAM and other short range guidance have 4"+. Even the 12z Euro had 0.10"+ for Indy. I guess we'll see how it plays out... Meh, I'll defer to your guys' interpretation. I'm probably looking at this through the imby prism. NAM is a radical shift here. Down where you're this seems to be more of a gradual shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 SREFS not as impressive with the NW extent. In fact, except for the ETA members, they look like they've taken a bit of a step back from the 15z run. Compare them to the earlier runs. Not the NAM. By the looks of it they are in catch up mode especially when compared to the 09z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow...4-5" for Detroit-southward with some 5-6" lollipops in near the border if that NAM clown map verifies. Not one soul in the public has heard mention of a single flake tomorrow from any media outlet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 clown map Now almost to far NW..you got to be kidding...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Meh, I'll defer to your guys' interpretation. I'm probably looking at this through the imby prism. NAM is a radical shift here. Down where you're this seems to be more of a gradual shift. Well we went from 0" to potentially 4" here in 24 hours of runs. I'm being honest when I say this, but nobody I talked to today thinks it's going to snow here tomorrow...let alone 2-4". And you have to remember we live in the tropics relatively speaking, 2-4" is noteworthy enough in central Indiana. Not to mention WWA worthy. But I digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The above clown map is tainted by the second system FWIW. Here's tomorrow's system snow map (through 12z Sunday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 DTX did say they'll have to "monitor the moisture" from the gulf coast system for the Detroit area in their aviation forecast. The actual grids call for partly sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The above clown map is tainted by the second system FWIW. Here's tomorrow's system snow map (through 12z Sunday). hey, 3-4" ill still take when i didnt expect a flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 SREFS not as impressive with the NW extent. In fact, except for the ETA members, they look like they've taken a bit of a step back from the 15z run. Don paul just updated his forecast and his calling for 4-6 for buffalo and 6-10 for southerntier.he's usually a bit conservative with snowtotals lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Compare them to the earlier runs. Not the NAM. By the looks of it they are in catch up mode especially when compared to the 09z SREF. Uh, yeah. That's what I said. I compared the 21z to the 15z SREFS and except for the ETA members, they took a step back. I can count 3 non-ETA members on the 15z run that bring the 0.1" line north of me. They're all gone on the 21z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Don paul just updated his forecast and his calling for 4-6 for buffalo and 6-10 for southerntier.he's usually a bit conservative with snowtotals lol Can't wait for the 11pm broadcast. Hopefully he'll run the latest run of super microcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Uh, yeah. That's what I said. I compared the 21z to the 15z SREFS and except for the ETA members, they took a step back. I can count 3 non-ETA members on the 15z run that bring the 0.1" line north of me. They're all gone on the 21z run. meh.. I usually still avoid comparing off runs to others and vice versa. But thats me. See what the GFS shows. That should *hopefully* tell the fate of this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 hey, 3-4" ill still take when i didnt expect a flake! no way that i will quote michael scott on this one...not a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 [rant]For us central/east central Ohioans this just describes this winter perfectly. A joke. less than 24 hours out hahaha [/rant] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 [rant]For us central/east central Ohioans this just describes this winter perfectly. A joke. less than 24 hours out hahaha [/rant] Am I missing something? Latest NAM has .31" qpf for us with tomorrow's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 meh.. I usually still avoid comparing off runs to others and vice versa. But thats me. See what the GFS shows. That should *hopefully* tell the fate of this NAM run. Even if the GFS is southeast, I'll probably RUC/radar this one from this point onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Am I missing something? Latest NAM has .31" qpf for us with tomorrow's event. I *think* he is worried about another jump nw. Not sure i would worry about it yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like a solid 3 incher here! Wasn't expecting anything really and now this is a nice little gift. Should be enough for the kids to hit the sledding hills for the second time this winter if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Am I missing something? Latest NAM has .31" qpf for us with tomorrow's event. thats the nam....i want dillycast map asap..cmon dilly youve been pretty good so far...get to work for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Can't wait for the 11pm broadcast. Hopefully he'll run the latest run of super microcast. Angela just said 1-2 with pockets of 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Am I missing something? Latest NAM has .31" qpf for us with tomorrow's event. it gives you .28 in cmh and that is on the line. Over towards me and steve, we get .16 and Im not even buying that based on the trend.. I imagine with the trend of the 0z that by 6z we'll be closer to .10 with you guys around .15 or so.. GFS could prove me wrong, but I am not big on the gfs in this short of range. I prefer to use the RUC, WRF, NAM etc. in the shortrange etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Even if the GFS is southeast, I'll probably RUC/radar this one from this point onward. This is a horrible addiction because i'll probably be following this now as well even though the chances look slim here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I *think* he is worried about another jump nw. Not sure i would worry about it yet though. Yep but like I said even now, its almost got us out of decent range. a shift 25 miles its down to 0 over this way. But I'm not sweating it yet. Im sticking with my call from 2 days ago still. EDIT: BTW Harry, my site is no longer a forum you guys, accuweather and american pretty much have that market.. LOL.. I changed it to a forecast site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Seriously, what is Indianapolis smoking tonight? Here is their latest AFD?!?!? PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOW TO ENTER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING...SO BACKED OFF ON POP CHANCES AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO RULE OUT THE INCONSISTENT GFS AND GO WITH OTHER MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH ARE SHOWING AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AN INCH IN THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTHEAST. SO...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION...WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS. STILL...MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND. TEMPS...LATEST OBS ARE SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE ON TRACK. DO NOT EXPECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AREA TO DROP DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SO...LEFT CURRENT LOWS AS IS. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 02z RUC (24hr total preciptiation and 24hr total snowfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Seriously, what is Indianapolis smoking tonight? Here is their latest AFD?!?!? PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOW TO ENTER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING...SO BACKED OFF ON POP CHANCES AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO RULE OUT THE INCONSISTENT GFS AND GO WITH OTHER MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH ARE SHOWING AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AN INCH IN THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTHEAST. SO...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION...WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS. STILL...MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND. TEMPS...LATEST OBS ARE SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE ON TRACK. DO NOT EXPECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AREA TO DROP DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SO...LEFT CURRENT LOWS AS IS. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. Think you have to take into account some of the dry air it will have to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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