Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Lock it in. Or just a hair north to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Lock it in. Or just a hair north to be safe. left blinker may be stuck in "on" position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 When you compare last night's 00z runs to what it looks like will happen, it almost borders on a colossal failure. Really been a while since I've seen something like this...we're not talking about minor shifts with tight gradients here. Yeah, this is something you'd see maybe 10 years ago when model accuracy was a lot less than what it is today. Very unsual today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 left blinker may be stuck in "on" position lol, unreal isn't it? Congrats Terre Haute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Lock it in. Or just a hair north to be safe. Yeah, I wouldn't mind some of those blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Assuming the NAM is correct (and it may be as the hi-res models are also trending the same direction) me and snowstormcanuck are in great positions considering how storms are ALWAYS further NW than what the models show. 00z NAM + another NW adjustment and I'm in heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 lol, unreal isn't it? Congrats Terre Haute. local tv met goes to mich games with me just sent text telling me to "get some sleep"(code words for your're going to plow tmmrw)....being a michigan football fan and owning a business predicated by weather is a miserable combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I wish I had the numbers for last night's 0z and today's 6z, but here's the raw QPF numbers for LAF starting with today's 12z run. Trend much? 12z NAM: 0.10" 18z NAM: 0.20" 0z NAM: aprox. 0.30" just eyeballing the Twister map, might be more like 0.20-0.25"...not 100% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 lol, unreal isn't it? Congrats Terre Haute. That's a really tight northwestern edge. Who knows if it's correct in the placement though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Assuming the NAM is correct (and it may be as the hi-res models are also trending the same direction) me and snowstormcanuck are in great positions considering how storms are ALWAYS further NW than what the models show. 00z NAM + another NW adjustment and I'm in heaven. Assuming the NAM initialized correctly and this isn't all BS, I think there's room for a further NW adjustment. It's actually quick a vigorous looking piece of energy. Strong PVA and a closed H5 center. That zone of confluence to the north looks far enough north that it could nudge a little further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I wish I had the numbers for last night's 0z and today's 6z, but here's the raw QPF numbers for LAF starting with today's 12z run. Trend much? 12z NAM: 0.10" 18z NAM: 0.20" 0z NAM: aprox. 0.30" just eyeballing the Twister map, might be more like 0.20-0.25"...not 100% sure. 00z last night was a goose egg or very close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 local tv met goes to mich games with me just sent text telling me to "get some sleep"(code words for your're going to plow tmmrw)....being a michigan football fan and owning a business predicated by weather is a miserable combo TOL looks to be sitting in a nice spot. $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I compared 6 hours on the 0z to 12 hours on the 18z NAM. Not seeing any of that phase shift problem, so there's another sign that this might be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 TOL looks to be sitting in a nice spot. $$$ boy i hope your correct chi...anyone notice how sunday night/monday clipper just kind of "disappeared" on this run ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 That's a really tight northwestern edge. Who knows if it's correct in the placement though. Good thing we're on the good side of it right now, but true, who knows if it even goes a bit farther northwest at this point. Wow, a last second rise from the dead type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Near .40 here in southern Ohio... 2-4 possibly 5 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 boy i hope your correct chi...anyone notice how sunday night/monday clipper just kind of "disappeared" on this run ?? Trend is undeniable at this point. You're prime. And yeah let's see if this reorganizes the deck chairs for this coming week's systems. Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 boy i hope your correct chi...anyone notice how sunday night/monday clipper just kind of "disappeared" on this run ?? It's still there. Just weaker, slower, and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 boy i hope your correct chi...anyone notice how sunday night/monday clipper just kind of "disappeared" on this run ?? I could see that since tomorrow's "potential" system would leave plenty of confluence overhead versus what would have happened if it just went OTS/coastal. In any event, WOW!!! If this were to happen we're talking about a catastrophic bust for this region (forecasters, models, everything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Good thing we're on the good side of it right now, but true, who knows if it even goes a bit farther northwest at this point. Wow, a last second rise from the dead type of storm. It very well might...the short term/hi-res guidance is strongly hinting at that and it appears to be doing pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Trend is undeniable at this point. You're prime. And yeah let's see if this reorganizes the deck chairs for this coming week's systems. Madness. i'm no whiz, in fact i'm an idiot, but if you look out west that late week system looks more attractive when you see this type of trend...i'm like you guys, it's great to be in bullseye a week out ON PAPER, but in reality it sucks and you get screwed...maybe we are in a better spot than we realize... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It very well might...the short term/hi-res guidance is strongly hinting at that and it appears to be doing pretty well. Still riding the 2-4" call? I gotta send out some updates...or more like first and last call/heads up if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Still riding the 2-4" call? I gotta send out some updates...or more like first and last call/heads up if you will. NAM doesn't offer a reason to back down. I could see a heavier band set up somewhere but it's hard to pinpoint right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 And I'm going to bookmark this thread as undeniable proof that all models quite frankly suck, even the EURO. A major shift (talking hundreds of miles) like this within 24 hours of a storm and for no model to even pick up on it until it's virtually happening should be unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 IND gets .45 on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm telling ya, with all the energy and vorts out there this week, the models are going to struggle all week with all three storms. It will be a mess trying to get a good handle on the forecast this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 im trying to dig up date back in late 1990's, but there was no snow in forecast at all and we got 9" in one afternoon - thundersnow, unreal rates - burnt the wiper motors out of a few trucks and loaders....mega dendrites lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 IND gets .45 on the NAM. Dtw? On phone. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i'm no whiz, in fact i'm an idiot, but if you look out west that late week system looks more attractive when you see this type of trend...i'm like you guys, it's great to be in bullseye a week out ON PAPER, but in reality it sucks and you get screwed...maybe we are in a better spot than we realize... Well this event looks like a freak failure on the models part. Pretty hard to fathom really inside 48 hours in this day and age. But in the grand scheme of things the indices have changed, for the better for a lot of us, and gone are the SE sliders or EC monsters where we were left with NW flow limited moisture events. NW trend if you want to call it that, is alive and well. The Lower Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV time to shine is now. Still may be a few "warm" solutions for some, but this is by far the best potential we've had for sizable region-wide storms all winter. And the train is still coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 And I'm going to bookmark this thread as undeniable proof that all models quite frankly suck, even the EURO. A major shift (talking hundreds of miles) like this within 24 hours of a storm and for no model to even pick up on it until it's virtually happening should be unprecedented. This type of situation is pretty rare though. I'm not sure but I'm wondering if something key was missed in Mexico last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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