WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z Canadian model, GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 This system, which just about qualifies as a very weak Miller A as modeled here, was first shown on a JMA run a few days ago as I recall. So, kudos may be needed for the relatively unrespected JMA. That run actually suggested some snow in Dahlonega and other far N GA areas. Also, kudos are likely going to be needed for Tony for giving a lot of recognition to this one. Thank you sir for being on the ball! Thanks, Larry. You know...a blind squirrel, and all that We'll see. I'm sure hoping to see a further south track. Possibilities anyway. Might not know until the11th hour. But flipping back and forth between iterations of both storms showed some similarities in how the model was trying to build them. Hope the first can tell us something about the next. I know don't want to see the low north of me, lol, But probably a dusting on Cheez would be a pretty good win. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hope you get clobbered Tony ! Unfortunately, I'll miss both Monday and Wed/Thurs storms as I will be away on business for nine days. Two maybe good hits and I'll be out of country working my fingers to the bone. Wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hope you get clobbered Tony ! Unfortunately, I'll miss both Monday and Wed/Thurs storms as I will be away on business for nine days. Two maybe good hits and I'll be out of country working my fingers to the bone. Wonderful. Thanks, my friend! This wouldn't be that Tahiti business trip would it Be safe, and wear your water wings...and I'm sure late Feb. and March will offer more fun for us..and even up to Easter. Haven't had an Easter storm in a lot of years! Think solar minimum and Icelandic vulcanism Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You can keep your easter snow Tony. 2007 is still fresh on my mind. Walking up to my garden and seeing my 30 heirloom tomatoes that I had grown from seed wilted after hours of 24 degrees. im as big a snowmizer as any but my maters need some warmth after early april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 No change in my thinking. As the 0z and 6z GFS pretty much show maybe flurries Monday after dark with any real accumulation chance confined north of the app spine in GA. The NAM tries to suggest a little more but I'm not buying into it yet. Still bears watching as the RGEM is a little more amplified with the shortwave than the GFS and gives a much better accumulation chance for far N GA and especially the WNC mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z GFS looks pretty close for some people getting some accumulating snow Monday Night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12Z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z NAM at hour 42, showing some light snow. Also at hour 39 it shows more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well, this is a start, but really only what was expected. I'd like to see the trend south, and later, with that cold air undercutting it some. It always hurts to have precip come in during the day in Ga. And warming up to near 60 today down here isn't helping. Still, I hope someone in Ga. can see some flakes, and maybe the Apps more than some. Once again I'd like to be in NeGa's catbird seat for the winter. Still time for it to strengthen and come into better focus. T http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=GAZ056&warncounty=GAC255&firewxzone=GAZ056&local_place1=Griffin+GA&product1=Special+Weather+Statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looking like a solid dusting is possible above 3500' if the moisture can hang around long enough after temps have dropped this evening. Looking for token flakes with no accumulation here in the valley of Jackson County, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 36deg and light rain. Looks like forecast temps will bust high again. Busted 5 degrees high yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Is it just me or did the GFS just amp up the system for tonight? I know the GFS at short range like this is sorta unreliable, but interesting given the radar returns back in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 36deg and light rain. Looks like forecast temps will bust high again. Busted 5 degrees high yesterday. I was kind of hoping you'd see some onset pellets when I saw the returns this morning. I'm at 37 here. Looks like the system is a bit more inspired. I hate cold chasing..but every so often it catches up We'll see what this evening brings. T Edit: huh...just dropped two degrees while I was typing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I was kind of hoping you'd see some onset pellets when I saw the returns this morning. I'm at 37 here. Looks like the system is a bit more inspired. I hate cold chasing..but every so often it catches up We'll see what this evening brings. T Edit: huh...just dropped two degrees while I was typing. Could be evap. cooling from all the virga above. Sounds like graupel reported in Birmingham, AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It looks like the deformation band is going to end up further north and west of the Carolinas, so its unlikely at this point any location in the Carolinas will end up with much wintry precipitation. However, the expanse of the precipitation from the low offshore is much further northwest than the model guidance was calling even 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yep...looks pretty much a non entity. Sun has been out here for hours now, and that band in Ala. though staying together, doesn't look to drop all that much rain. At least Tenn. is getting some sn. The southern portion looks very healthy though. Hope that bodes well for later in the week. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Obs from Pilot Mtn in Jackson County (roughly southern section) about 3600'... Light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Rain in New Bern, again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 43/36 here had a 10 minute bout of rain/snow mix a little bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Glad to see some are getting flakes. It appears to be eroding from the southern end and I'm not sure the better rates ever make it out of Tenn. Still, I was surprised that that unassuming line of showers in Ala. gave me 3/10ths of an inch. I was slabbing some opal at the time, and my saw makes a lot of noise, but I'm pretty sure I heard a rumble of thunder shortly after the rain started. Then the power went out for an hour. I think an old adage says if you hear thunder, and the power goes out, you will get dumped with heavy sleet within 3 days So if this one won't do it maybe the next will. Hope Tenn. at least is getting some good snow, and then this thing winds up and sends down the mother lode of cold. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Glad to see some are getting flakes. It appears to be eroding from the southern end and I'm not sure the better rates ever make it out of Tenn. Still, I was surprised that that unassuming line of showers in Ala. gave me 3/10ths of an inch. I was slabbing some opal at the time, and my saw makes a lot of noise, but I'm pretty sure I heard a rumble of thunder shortly after the rain started. Then the power went out for an hour. I think an old adage says if you hear thunder, and the power goes out, you will get dumped with heavy sleet within 3 days So if this one won't do it maybe the next will. Hope Tenn. at least is getting some good snow, and then this thing winds up and sends down the mother lode of cold. T Very windy out right now. I'm surprised we haven't been issued a high wind warning. Trees can come down after the soaking rain we just had in these gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Nothing spectacular, but I do have some snow covering the ground with light snow falling this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Nothing spectacular, but I do have some snow covering the ground with light snow falling this AM. Same up in Weaverville. I hope this doesn't out do the next one obs: 27.6° very windy & very light flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Going from Cullowhee to Clyde, NC into work this morning... Cullowhee (trace)... Sylva (trace)... Balsam Gap (0.5 - 1")... Waynesville (trace)... Clyde (dusting; light snow falling). A perfect drive into work this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Weaverville obs: Temp. 26.9° Wind gusty Dir. NW. light snow falling for the last hour. Ground & cars are white. Buncombe County schools Closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Still coming down up at sugar and beech. Gotta love NW Flow High Country Webcams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Still coming down up at sugar and beech. Gotta love NW Flow High Country Webcams I swear if I get some extra money I'm buying a small house up there. Real estate is pretty cheap right now but I'm sure with all that cold and snow there is a lot of upkeep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I swear if I get some extra money I'm buying a small house up there. Real estate is pretty cheap right now but I'm sure with all that cold and snow there is a lot of upkeep. Upkeep is not bad. Taxes will kill ya before upkeep cost do! All you need is a well insulated house, 4 wheel drive with chains, and your golden (o maybe a backup generator; never hurts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Nothing spectacular, but I do have some snow covering the ground with light snow falling this AM. A nice dusting on the ground as well here this morning... even covering the roads in spots. The winds were also pretty impressive last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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