dsaur Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 After yesterdays sleet, even down here, I have a feeling this next event might have promise, if nothing more than to set the stage for the main event. But maybe give someone a dusting before heading off to glory. Canada wants to give us some cold, but needs a nudge. And I like Raleigh's idea of a "pseudo" block..so here's to you little Monday event that could Tony discalimer: I'm the guy who bought stock for the first time ever 3 days before the Flash Crash. I'm usually pretty lucky,... usually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is from the 18z nam. Brandon was mentioning this possibility in the thread for the potential biggie next week. By hour 84 the pressure gets down to 996 in Canada hopefully bringing down the cold air and acting to block the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here's Raleigh's from the other thread........ "Hard to say with all the oscillations. It seems the 12z models are certainly making a bigger deal of the day 3 event and strengthening that low quite a bit which helps elongate the massive eastern Canada vortex and create a pseudo-50/50 low. Just think if that tend is right and the Euro is a bit too slow, typical euro bias, than this would be a massive winter storm for the southeast. What I like is that we are seeing more stream seperation this cycle. This storm has always had the feel to me of the classic southeast winter storms that proceed a big arctic outbreak, where there is a massive vortex in central/eastern canada, little -NAO or blocking signature and the rain/snow line depends solely on the track of the surface low, which will obviously round the base of the trough where the trough axis sets up and that is open for plenty of debate. I think the 3 operational models today show all 3 options (Canadian trough axis further west, more inland/warmer track, ECMWF trough middle ground big snows for Tn Valley/western Carolinas, GFS further east trough axis, weaker system, better snows for further east). I think we will see model convergence with this in a couple of days, but I think alot depends on the first system. " And I was looking at the models yesterday and thinking a pseudo block could form from todays, or the Monday event...so I'm glad to see someone who knows what they are talking about thinks it's possible, lol. I've seen times like this in the past where Canada is full, and bits leak out, and the borderline cold just hangs around, reinforcing, and waiting on a big shot of it.... and systems move in and out...and before you know it you can have a few minors and a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I like the bigger solution on Monday so the Wednesday system will have more cold air to work with and hopefully help keep the low further south and east (sorry, I'm being selfish!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 I like the bigger solution on Monday so the Wednesday system will have more cold air to work with and hopefully help keep the low further south and east (sorry, I'm being selfish!) Yeah, I want Tenn. to get theirs too, so I'm hoping for a big, huge, major thumping that gets everybody, lol, but two or three smaller ones that end up putting some on everybody is fine too. Kffc has mentioned snow in the forecast for tomorrow, Mon. and late week, so, hopefully there will be some for everyone...as long as one of the lows is across the Fla. panhandle If I have -6 for 850's and a cold, cold column, I'm happy to have a low around Columbus too, lol. CandyMan needs a huge welcome thumping down there. Let him learn his Ga. winter chops during an historic winter Today was so damn close. I'm sitting at 36 with pretty good rain, and it hasn't moved more that a few degrees either way in days. To me that is a good sign, especially as I had sleet in the leaves and on the decks, Wed. night and again yesterday morning. Just glad this one wasn't zrain, as I'm up an inch and a half now after a lot of dry slotting yesterday afternoon. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yep...pulling for flurries for my side of the mountains (Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Cumming, Atlanta, Gainesville southward) and up to an inch on the north side of the range (Ellijay, Blue Ridge, Blairsville, Rome, Dalton northward) late Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, I want Tenn. to get theirs too, so I'm hoping for a big, huge, major thumping that gets everybody, lol, but two or three smaller ones that end up putting some on everybody is fine too. Kffc has mentioned snow in the forecast for tomorrow, Mon. and late week, so, hopefully there will be some for everyone...as long as one of the lows is across the Fla. panhandle If I have -6 for 850's and a cold, cold column, I'm happy to have a low around Columbus too, lol. CandyMan needs a huge welcome thumping down there. Let him learn his Ga. winter chops during an historic winter Today was so damn close. I'm sitting at 36 with pretty good rain, and it hasn't moved more that a few degrees either way in days. To me that is a good sign, especially as I had sleet in the leaves and on the decks, Wed. night and again yesterday morning. Just glad this one wasn't zrain, as I'm up an inch and a half now after a lot of dry slotting yesterday afternoon. T Thanks dsaur!! I've been learning tons over the past two months! To be honest, I never knew there were so many different ways for there to be southern snows... I have been learning and taking notes though for next winter and the winter after that! (Since I'll be here at least 3 years.) I'm still waiting for the 14 inch snow to hit like we evidently had back in the mid 70s here! About this Monday system though, I have a feeling that this will be similar to what we saw on Christmas here, although a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT set-up. I'm only referencing that because first some rain, then a few flurries make it's way on the back side of it. I do find it funny what the MOS is putting out for us next week. They still say upper 40s to near 50, and I'm like REALLY! REALLY!? Of course, I know this could be true, but with the way the model maps look like there is no way we have highs up near 50. Here's hoping we all get lucky for Valentine's Day! (At least this will hit BEFORE that day so none of our girlfriends/wives are upset at us ;) ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18Z nam...hmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z NAM certainly looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z NAM certainly looks interesting This thing trends any stronger, it may sneak up on us while all eyes are on the midweek system. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 00z GFS ensemble mean pops a 1010mb LP in the northern gulf for Monday's system. Nice. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS060.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS way colder at the surface than the NAM. Both maps are @78: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks dsaur!! I've been learning tons over the past two months! To be honest, I never knew there were so many different ways for there to be southern snows... I have been learning and taking notes though for next winter and the winter after that! (Since I'll be here at least 3 years.) I'm still waiting for the 14 inch snow to hit like we evidently had back in the mid 70s here! About this Monday system though, I have a feeling that this will be similar to what we saw on Christmas here, although a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT set-up. I'm only referencing that because first some rain, then a few flurries make it's way on the back side of it. I do find it funny what the MOS is putting out for us next week. They still say upper 40s to near 50, and I'm like REALLY! REALLY!? Of course, I know this could be true, but with the way the model maps look like there is no way we have highs up near 50. Here's hoping we all get lucky for Valentine's Day! (At least this will hit BEFORE that day so none of our girlfriends/wives are upset at us ;) ) Well, sometimes in Ga. the models will show you something shiny, and while you are trying to get a good look at it, the one nearest you comes in from behind, and bites you in the butt I'm hoping we can pop a low and bring it in at night. Like the way the models are trending with both storms as of 0z. Like the ensemble members showing a low. Sure hope we can get a foot down here pretty soon. Most I've seen since I moved here in 81 was 10 3/4 inches in the early 90's, and never saw that much in Atl. I've never seen a foot outside of Germany, but I'm ready for it to be this week Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well, sometimes in Ga. the models will show you something shiny, and while you are trying to get a good look at it, the one nearest you comes in from behind, and bites you in the butt I'm hoping we can pop a low and bring it in at night. Like the way the models are trending with both storms as of 0z. Like the ensemble members showing a low. Sure hope we can get a foot down here pretty soon. Most I've seen since I moved here in 81 was 10 3/4 inches in the early 90's, and never saw that much in Atl. I've never seen a foot outside of Germany, but I'm ready for it to be this week Tony I'm with you Tony, I've been here since '81 also. The storms I remember were the two in the 80's and the '93 storm, we're due for another one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 For Monday the hopes of flurries across N GA are still there. Latest GFS has ample 850mb moisture from 18z to 0z for most areas north of Atlanta. During the afternoon you will have the 500mb vort, which looks pretty decent, moving thru so I think flurries are on the table with a dusting to 1" on the northern side of the app spine in GA. Whatever happens looks to be quick as this system is moving quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Anyone think we'll see some snow Monday night? 12z GFS supported it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The nam might be off its rocker, but with any more amplification and this becomes a major Appalachian Snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The nam might be off its rocker, but with any more amplification and this becomes a major Appalachian Snowstorm. Wow. Thanks for reminding me there was a NAM . Verbatim it's 2-4" for the Triad. Oh how I can wish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, but surface temps look to be way too warm. Maybe I'm wrong, but FWIW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, but surface temps look to be way too warm. Maybe I'm wrong, but FWIW.... Hmm. My AccuPro surface map says otherwise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hmm. My AccuPro surface map says otherwise.. Care to generally describe it then? I'm too far E for this anyway though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, but surface temps look to be way too warm. Maybe I'm wrong, but FWIW.... I believe that is the 6z nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Care to generally describe it then? I'm too far E for this anyway though... They show exactly what the NCEP map shows on what Phil posted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I believe that is the 6z nam... That would be the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You're right, it is the 06z. The file name is "18znamblahblahblah.gif" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Does anyone have any updates on the little system swinging through on Monday the 7th. Looking at the latest GFS and NAM it shows some snow showers. Actually the NAM looks to up the precip in the Carolinas. Hard to tell if this precip is before, during or after arrival of the front. Thoughts anyone? GSP has us in rain to snow and now they have it back as rain. Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, the weekend crew at ffc took out any mention of sn for the whole forecast period. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Does anyone have any updates on the little system swinging through on Monday the 7th. Looking at the latest GFS and NAM it shows some snow showers. Actually the NAM looks to up the precip in the Carolinas. Hard to tell if this precip is before, during or after arrival of the front. Thoughts anyone? GSP has us in rain to snow and now they have it back as rain. Thanks... While the 850s have trended below zero for the 2/7 - 2/8 system in NC, the 925 MB warm nose would unfortunately keep the precip all rain, from what my untrained eye can see of the model runs. It looks that way on the 18Z NAM, 18Z GFS, and the 0Z NAM. Considering that the 850s were also too warm a couple of days ago on these models, who knows what will actually verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 00z NAM http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_ref_048l.gif Each progressive run is showing a nice moisture tap and increasing post-frontal lift. Don't sleep on this one yet. Could be a one-two punch this week for the Deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 00z NAM http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_048l.gif Each progressive run is showing a nice moisture tap and increasing post-frontal lift. Don't sleep on this one yet. Could be a one-two punch this week for the Deep South. This system, which just about qualifies as a very weak Miller A as modeled here, was first shown on a JMA run a few days ago as I recall. So, kudos may be needed for the relatively unrespected JMA. That run actually suggested some snow in Dahlonega and other far N GA areas. Also, kudos are likely going to be needed for Tony for giving a lot of recognition to this one. Thank you sir for being on the ball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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