stormtracker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 meh..looks a little less amplified vs 18z. But interestingly enough, it has precip farther west into the carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 just missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 just missed Oh well. As long as it gets up there and bombs out to create a blocking feature for later in the week, I don't care what happens Monday/Tuesday. I think we can all agree on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 As we always say....next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 21 SREF has widespread .25 to .50 qpf by the way with Tuesday's storm though the 2m temps is kinda warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Excuse me, but oh boy. We just need temps to work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Warm bias! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 06Z NAM keeps the precip OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 06Z GFS Total precip. 850 is just north and west of Balt and DC at onset and moves south and east quickly. Surface temps are marginal in the DC and Balt corridor with mid to upper 30's and the 32 degree line in western MD at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 9z SREFs are looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 9z SREFs are looking good! snow holes are fookin awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z NAM is trying to make up for the EURO's trend two days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hello 12z GFS from 42 to 48. I believe that might be some snow for our region. Here it is at 42 with a little more to go at 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hello 12z GFS from 42 to 48. I believe that might be some snow for our region. Here it is at 42 with a little more to go at 48: it looked better until I checked surface temps naso good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Rats, mitchnik. Still, maybe it's a cold snowy 32, not a rainy 33. Eh, probably not. The surface temps for hour 42: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Rats, mitchnik. Still, maybe it's a cold snowy 32, not a rainy 33. Eh, probably not. The surface temps for hour 42: That's a slight improvement form yesterday where it had Balt/wash into the 40's. Anybody got the latest GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This will be the toughest forecast for the year. As we've learned in this new +NAO pattern, vorts are often much more energetic and further NW than modeled say 24-48 hours out. (great example yesterday - closed 500mb LP through PA and NY). Not saying that it will happen in this case, just that's been the trend in the last 3 weeks and needs to be watched closely. Small difference with that has a profound impact on our weather Tuesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This will be the toughest forecast for the year. As we've learned in this new +NAO pattern, vorts are often much more energetic and further NW than modeled say 24-48 hours out. (great example yesterday - closed 500mb LP through PA and NY). Not saying that it will happen in this case, just that's been the trend in the last 3 weeks and needs to be watched closely. Small difference with that has a profound impact on our weather Tuesday AM. You always say things that seem to have no relation to reality. This is not a tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 9z SREFs are looking good! They're actually worse than 15z, 21z and 3z in terms of precip.This storm really has a lot of potential for DC on north. I don't understand why poeple aren't paying more attention to it. It seems like it could continue to trend further west. The GGEM though to warm is almost a perfect nor'easter track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 They're actually worse than 15z, 21z and 3z in terms of precip.This storm really has a lot of potential for DC on north. I don't understand why poeple aren't paying more attention to it. It seems like it could continue to trend further west. The GGEM though to warm is almost a perfect nor'easter track. A lot of potential? Really? Maybe up to 2" in spots thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 They're actually worse than 15z, 21z and 3z in terms of precip.This storm really has a lot of potential for DC on north. I don't understand why poeple aren't paying more attention to it. It seems like it could continue to trend further west. The GGEM though to warm is almost a perfect nor'easter track. Did you not pick up on the sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 A lot of potential? Really? Maybe up to 2" in spots thats it. When this was forcasted as a clipper 3 days ago with hardly any southern moisture to speak of and now it's trending to a full blown coastal, I'd say it's got some potential. Yeah it's to warm for Wash/Balt to really get anything but as of now areas north of the MD/PA line could get a really nice little surprise. And it's still got time for some surprises for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Did you not pick up on the sarcasm? Nope...lol...was wondering about the gun though...should be up on my emoticon language i guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif The JMA...FWIW brings .5-.75 to all the big cities. The sref ensembles- some of which are very interesting for our area.... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_15z/f42.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 looks good on the nam bring on spring!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 son of a gun http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_036s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 story of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 son of a gun http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_036s.gif Flurries! Wonderful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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