stormtracker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 northern stream is just totally screwing us...but it does look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 yeah!! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_078m.gif LWX says rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yea there really is no surface reflection to the southern vort till it passes the majority of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 But the amazing "coincidence" of this winter is that every event at some point looks good for us. None of them ever look like a lost cause at some point. Somewhere along the line, they all look good. Remember the early Dec. clipper. The runs on Wed afternoon showed a good hit for us, the NAM especially. Then, on the very next run, it was modeled south and never wavered. The Jan 11 storm? The storm this past week? Tomorrow? It's like somebody is doing this on purpose. It's crazy. And it's been happening all winter. Are these models programmed to show snow in the Mid Atlantic at least once for every event? I've always wondered if the calculations are "predisposed" toward certain outcomes. Too many times in the long-range, I've seen progs showing the perfect snowstorm ingredients, which is actually pretty rare around here. And not just this winter. I suffered through years of seeing the same scenario played out repeatedly, and then look up at the end of the season scraping for double-digit totals. It took me a while to see that though, which is why I don't begin to invest in many outcomes beyond 72 hours, except in rare cases. It happens in the Tropical season as well, with early models showing Andrew redux, and by 5 days lead the cyclones are curving east of the Islands. Doubt it has any validity if you asked the programmers, probably just seeing through weenie glasses, but it does sometimes seem like the models default to certain scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I've tried to be very positive all winter. And, yes, I know it could have been worse. All I have to do is remember 08-09 to realize that. But I can't help but feel frustrated, and it has nothing to do with the storm we just missed, or even the Christmas storm. I realize that there are certain weather patterns more likely during a Nina, and that's fine. If no snow is the way it is supposed to play out, then fine, so be it. If it is not destined to snow, OK. But the frustrating part for me is the constant, and its been going on since the early December clipper that went south of us, model solutions that will show us something that looks great, gets our hopes up, then immediately drops it, and we watch helplessly as it passes us up. If the model never showed a chance, I could live with that. But the amazing "coincidence" of this winter is that every event at some point looks good for us. None of them ever look like a lost cause at some point. Somewhere along the line, they all look good. Remember the early Dec. clipper. The runs on Wed afternoon showed a good hit for us, the NAM especially. Then, on the very next run, it was modeled south and never wavered. The Jan 11 storm? The storm this past week? Tomorrow? It's like somebody is doing this on purpose. It's crazy. And it's been happening all winter. Are these models programmed to show snow in the Mid Atlantic at least once for every event? I hope that this week's threat(s) either pan out, or I hope no model shows any chance of a snow event for the rest of this winter. I know, all I have to do is not look at the models. But who among us can do that? lol.. I'd guess you were one of the ones who were stuck in the snow for 10 hours last Tuesday because you thought it was going to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 LWX says rain. it wont be rain if it looks like that.. we might not get much but we'll get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 NAM looks wetter http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_pcp_078m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I've always wondered if the calculations are "predisposed" toward certain outcomes. Too many times in the long-range, I've seen progs showing the perfect snowstorm ingredients, which is actually pretty rare around here. And not just this winter. I suffered through years of seeing the same scenario played out repeatedly, and then look up at the end of the season scraping for double-digit totals. It took me a while to see that though, which is why I don't begin to invest in many outcomes beyond 72 hours, except in rare cases. It happens in the Tropical season as well, with early models showing Andrew redux, and by 5 days lead the cyclones are curving east of the Islands. Doubt it has any validity if you asked the programmers, probably just seeing through weenie glasses, but it does sometimes seem like the models default to certain scenarios. Well said, and this year, at some point in tracking every event, the default is a good solution for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 lol.. I'd guess you were one of the ones who were stuck in the snow for 10 hours last Tuesday because you thought it was going to rain? No, even I can forecast 12 hours in advance with some degree of accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Northern stream is weaker through hr 42 on the 12z nam. Was 1012 on 0z now it's 1016. Southern stream seems more potent at the surface. 500 maybe slightly weaker though through 54 hrs. Oh so close at hr 60 Anybody see the nam at 66hrs? This is def something to watch folks...can i get a feb 6-10 2010 repeat???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Northern stream is weaker through hr 42 on the 12z nam. Was 1012 on 0z now it's 1016. Southern stream seems more potent at the surface. 500 maybe slightly weaker though through 54 hrs. Oh so close at hr 60 The trouble is if you look at the soundings dc is still at 46 degrees at 10PM monday night (63 hrs) and the dewpoint at the surface is still above freezing at 1AM Tuesday (66hrs) with temps in the upper 30s. The nam surface temps are really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 The trouble is if you look at the soundings dc is still at 46 degrees at 10PM monday night (63 hrs) and the dewpoint at the surface is still above freezing at 1AM Tuesday (66hrs) with temps in the upper 30s. The nam surface temps are really warm. Very true... not denying it but this was so close to a decent hit from this coastal and we're still 2 days out. 500 vort is a great track and 850's are crashing between hrs 63 and 66 as precip begins to move in. It's a long shot but I really liked how the NAM weakened the northern stream which allowed the coastal to be a little more defined and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You gotta love the slice of 0 precip through the center of Virginia. This winter is becoming comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's curious that guidance isn't showing a better surface reflection yet... with a strong vort moving east near the GOM coast and then the trof going negative, there should be a decent low pressure center coming up along the SE coast. The vort then passes SE of us off of the coast around the VA Capes from Georiga. We should have an easterly wind in this setup and a good shot of some snow as the ULL passes by. I think the vort will trend stronger in the next two days. ALL vorts have been of late and gudiance has had issues up until a day or two before the event. GFS Ensembles are actually close to the surface reflection that I'd expect with the track of the ULL. This is going to be another tough forecast where some "surprises" happen on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's curious that guidance isn't showing a better surface reflection yet... with a strong vort moving east near the GOM coast and then the trof going negative, there should be a decent low pressure center coming up along the SE coast. The vort then passes SE of us off of the coast around the VA Capes from Georiga. We should have an easterly wind in this setup and a good shot of some snow as the ULL passes by. I think the vort will trend stronger in the next two days. ALL vorts have been of late and gudiance has had issues up until a day or two before the event. GFS Ensembles are actually close to the surface reflection that I'd expect with the track of the ULL. This is going to be another tough forecast where some "surprises" happen on Tuesday. it seems like the heavier qpf axis is displaced west a bit far from the vort when it passes this area on the gfs. if it holds as it has the last few days i would think it ends up more over us than shown. the biggest concern is temps as it's going to be rather warm on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Many of the members are a decent snow Monday night into Tuesday. No secret that the OP GFS has struggled with the "upgrades". Monday's warmth is predicated on a weak southern storm and a southwest flow at the surface here. A stronger southern storm would give us easterly winds. Regardless, this is going to cause alot of forecasting debate/debacle as we get to Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro looks like crap for this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro looks like crap for this threat It's funny how this threat is receiving very little thought. If we didn't have the thursday threat this thread would be pretty busy. 15z sref has dc balt in the .25-.50 contour from the coastal it looks like. It's prob still a little to warm for any accumulations. The .5 line comes almost to the del/md line. Interesting now that the GEFS members look like they're putting more emphasis on coastal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 A majority of the 12Z GFS ensemble members are pretty bullish with precip. 850's aren't to bad either. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zp72f096.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Take a look at the new 18Z NAM.... with that track, if the upper enery closes off on future runs... we will get hammered Tuesday morning. That is a classic climo track for heavy snow in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i do feel like it's getting less attention than it deserves.. the models (save the euro perhaps) seem more or less locked in on a very optimal 500 track and the northern system has gotten out of the way a bit lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i do feel like it's getting less attention than it deserves.. the models (save the euro perhaps) seem more or less locked in on a very optimal 500 track and the northern system has gotten out of the way a bit lately. Do you not feel like the temps are a big issue? According to Allans site the freezing line at the surface is still west of Virginia at 7 Tues morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i do feel like it's getting less attention than it deserves.. the models (save the euro perhaps) seem more or less locked in on a very optimal 500 track and the northern system has gotten out of the way a bit lately. Agreed. 18z NAM continues to trend better. Look at that H5 vort..optimal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Take a look at the new 18Z NAM.... with that track, if the upper enery closes off on future runs... we will get hammered Tuesday morning. That is a classic climo track for heavy snow in this area. That looks good, I agree, but I don't see what's causing the lack of precip in central Va. during the whole thing. Also, the surface temps look nice and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i do feel like it's getting less attention than it deserves.. the models (save the euro perhaps) seem more or less locked in on a very optimal 500 track and the northern system has gotten out of the way a bit lately. You've sold me on it. Maybe it can be this year's version of 1/30 ahead of something big a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Do you not feel like the temps are a big issue? According to Allans site the freezing line at the surface is still west of Virginia at 7 Tues morning. they are and we still need a few other things to break our way. since the gfs showed this thing randomly a few days back it has been fairly consistent on much of guidance. the nam could just be spitting out fantasy but the gfs has been promising on that lvl. euro is "close" to being better. the ens mean looks better than the op and better than the previous ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 they are and we still need a few other things to break our way. since the gfs showed this thing randomly a few days back it has been fairly consistent on much of guidance. the nam could just be spitting out fantasy but the gfs has been promising on that lvl. euro is "close" to being better. the ens mean looks better than the op and better than the previous ens mean. With the features that you see at the upper levels, is that precip hole in Va legit or something that would correct with later runs? The timing does appear to be in our favor as much of the precip figures to fall at night. Also, what impact does this event have on later in the week, if any? You said that the EURO is basically a non event with this thing, so is that one of the reasons that it has a much more potent system later vs. the GFS which has the early one a bit more amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 With the features that you see at the upper levels, is that precip hole in Va legit or something that would correct with later runs? The timing does appear to be in our favor as much of the precip figures to fall at night. Also, what impact does this event have on later in the week, if any? You said that the EURO is basically a non event with this thing, so is that one of the reasons that it has a much more potent system later vs. the GFS which has the early one a bit more amped? i think there is still enough northern stream influence to try to screw it up. it does seem the ull precip area is further west on the surface than you'd expect looking at the h5 but im not really an expert in that or anything so im sure im missing something. the euro h5 track is not bad it just does the same general precip split. so that could be right. tho i think on both the nam and euro we're getting closer to getting into precip from the coastal rather than looking just for the ull to spit out snow as it passes. the nam has decent lift potential nearing us: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_700_060m.gif the euro low still ends up a very powerful storm up near 50/50 despite it not snowing on us and in the end i think it's more about the placement of the dry slot on the surface output for storm 1. i think the big diffs with the second storm are more about washing the southern wave out than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 not the 18z gfs it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 30 hr NAM interesting and close to being something, but I don;t want it to do anything but create the perfect conditions for Day 5 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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