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Feb 7-8 Potential Storm


jconsor

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RGEM looks like a decent snow event Monday night / Tuesday morning for the northern 2/3rds of Connecticut....maybe far northern Westchester as well...

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Most of the analogs are terrible with maybe one or two showing a SECS/MECS for each time frame over the east. The best one so far is through 72hrs with 2/13/03 showing up as the #5 analog based on the 500mb setup. Overall though its #14.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=500HGHT

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i guess this threat is just about dead as everyone has abandoned ship...craig allen today said light rain transitioning to light snow for the coast with a slushy coating and 1-3 north and west...

Hmmm....I'm gonna keep my eye on it, wouldn't take too much for me to get into some action. Action being heavier rain or snow, that inverted trough keeps this storm from drawing in the colder air by the looks of it. I don't buy that inverted trough BS, see it all the time and it rarely works out as shown.

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NAM is busting badly on ongoing mod-heavy precip. over the western FL Panhandle, SE AL, GA, and coastal SC. That's the precip. that the NAM shows coming very close to LI but staying offshore.

Compare the current radar over those areas to the NAM 3 hour precip forecast valid 15z.

The GFS has been handling things much better but still underestimating the precip. over FL/AL/GA/SC.

post-88-0-55044900-1297088797.gif

post-88-0-99718100-1297088808.png

12z Nam is really awful. I can't believe how painfully close it is to a phase. The coast barely sees any precip.

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NAM is busting badly on ongoing mod-heavy precip. over the western FL Panhandle, SE AL, GA, and coastal SC. That's the precip. that the NAM shows coming very close to LI but staying offshore.

Compare the current radar over those areas to the NAM 3 hour precip forecast valid 15z.

The GFS has been handling things much better but still underestimating the precip. over FL/AL/GA/SC.

post-88-0-55044900-1297088797.gif

post-88-0-99718100-1297088808.png

How does the WV loop look in terms of the possible phase?

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Hard to tell, but the WV loop certainly indicates the baroclinic leaf that's igniting the precip. over FL/GA/AL is headed well NW of all guidance besides the RGEM.

Nice 24 hour WV loop here:

http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24

6z RGEM basically gives our area zero now. It pulled everything way east.

Only the 0z JMA is left that gives our area appreciable precip. .50"-.75" But at 12z, JMA had over 1" of precip.

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The 0Z RGEM is much closer to reality on the precip. over GA/AL than the 6z.

0z:

post-88-0-89570700-1297091056.gif

6z:

post-88-0-08124000-1297091161.gif

6z RGEM basically gives our area zero now. It pulled everything way east.

Only the 0z JMA is left that gives our area appreciable precip. .50"-.75" But at 12z, JMA had over 1" of precip.

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The radar returns in south-central Pa, associated with the s/w over Tennessee, and the returns in SE Va associated with the surface low developing off the SE coast do not match the NAM simulated radar very well currently. I'm not sure that it matters much because precip isn't reaching the ground in many areas and the surface temperatures are warm. But it's clear most models were slow to catch up to the strength of the s/w that is currently dropping unexpectedly heavy snow in parts of Kentucky. This deformation snow should weaken as it movies northeast (as the s/w dampens), but with significant model errors the past few days it makes radar watching more interesting.

I think CPA through the southern tier and up into VT could receive some moderate accumulations. It still looks like NJ, SENY, and most of SNE will be sandwiched between the two areas of precipitation, but it will be interesting to watch the situation unfold.

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I'm surprised that no one is posting on this topic.

radar looks healthy across VA and NC, including areas where the 18z NAM had no precip. also some (virga?) popping up over SE PA.

23z RUC looks to have a decent shield of steady precip affecting the tri-state area for several hours, but won't know until 00z graphics come out about just how heavy it is...

post-533-0-92403400-1297124328.jpg

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