Mitchel Volk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I am a bit concern for Tuesday from 11Z to 18Z, I believe this is looking some like a storm that was surprise a few years back when the models underestimates the southern short wave. So far I see just a few snow showers for that period, but I wound not be surprise if NYC get over 6" of snow from this. I am keeping a good eye on the radar and satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What's funny is that this is closer to a good hit then the 8 to 9 threat. The phase is just barely missing and the overall setup is better then the later week threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 With these short lead times, this might end up becoming a nowcasting event. It's just the way it goes this year.........meanwhile, I suggest patience in the other thread and nearly get my head ripped off....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's just the way it goes this year.........meanwhile, I suggest patience in the other thread and nearly get my head ripped off....lol I wonder what the rush is lol-- its like youre watching a movie and like halfway through the movie youve already decided whats going to happen. Uncertainty is a fact of life and I, for one, enjoy it. 48 hours ago who would have thought it was going to be near 50 today? And we're talking about a delicately timed event at TWICE the lead time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18Z RGEM is a graze and trending eastward since its 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18Z RGEM is a graze and trending eastward since its 06Z run. Trend implies multiple runs of the same model moving in the same direction. Just an FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z gfs continues to sharpen its trough. Winds at the 500mb level are almost due south to north in front of the trough when the surface low develops at 30 hours. Its still too far east but again its right on the edge of something more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z gfs continues to sharpen its trough. Winds at the 500mb level are almost due south to north in front of the trough when the surface low develops at 30 hours. Its still too far east but again its right on the edge of something more. Looks a whole lot more amped than 6Z as well. It's also W of 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like NOGAPS came in more amped with the low on the BM. We'll see if this is the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like NOGAPS came in more amped with the low on the BM. We'll see if this is the start of a trend. Not much time and still major problems with the bl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like NOGAPS came in more amped with the low on the BM. We'll see if this is the start of a trend. Well here it is, for those that would like to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not much time and still major problems with the bl Yeah surface temps are killing us. It would suck if it got cold enough just as the storm was about to exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's not as easy as sharpening the trough in this situation due to the poor positioning of the baroclinic zone. The surface low forming to the east makes sense, although some guidance is definitely placing it too far to the east atop some convection. That being said this is one of the cases where you can have a great depiction aloft but won't get the surface to respond..the upper level flow is not totally favorable with the northern stream bearing down. That being said..this was at one point an absolute laugher and guidance has brought it back to the point where it's basically going to be painful to watch how close this comes to interacting and getting tugged up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Out of the loop for awhile, board is so sparse . Does NYC/LI have a possible event tomm night worth getting excited about or most likely not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Most likely not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Out of the loop for awhile, board is so sparse . Does NYC/LI have a possible event tomm night worth getting excited about or most likely not? 00Z we should absolutely, definitely, probably, maybe know something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 convection starting to fire in eastern TX western LA in response to the short wave. STJ sitting over the gulf of mexico, energy dropping down from the northern jet. We have seen this setup before, although this setup is not near a volatile as the others. Will be fun to watch this for the next three model runs ending 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Don't count on it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 00Z we should absolutely, definitely, probably, maybe know something I'll take that !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM has taken a step back. Just cant get that northern stream into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM has taken a step back. Just cant get that northern stream into the system. Looks like its trying to get better organized earlier....Maybe even a tick to the west from 18Z....Guess I'll keep my interest EDIT - For the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 northern stream doesnt phase and then it acts as a kicker. Double screw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Still .10-.25 for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 mostly rain tho it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 mostly rain tho it seems Sufficiently cold aloft, a little warm near the surface....have to knock about 3 degrees or so off those 2m temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 bl temps are way too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Seems to be a sneaky little HP sliding off the coast turning winds to the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sufficiently cold aloft, a little warm near the surface....have to knock about 3 degrees or so off those 2m temps... Yeah def. This will mostly be falling at night tho it seems. That might help us out alittle bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah def. This will mostly be falling at night tho it seems. That might help us out alittle bit. If the GFS was spitting out those 2m temperatures I wouldn't be worried becasue the GFS can't forecast surface temps for spit...the NAM is a little more precise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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