EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm not sure how much to buy into that whole inverted trough situation either, it's really not something that happens very often. Not saying it can't happen, just that it's not a frequent occurance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z GFS looks pretty good at 42 hrs. Stronger, more consolidated low off the coast. The low on this run looks better than previous runs.The problem with this run is that surface temps are warm near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Decent Norlun-like signature showing up with an axis of instability on the GFS. Someone will see enhancement of the precip where this eventually sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 rgem and ggem looking much better for this event. RGEM has us in the deform and it looks like ggem is colder now with about 10mm liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This might wind up being a decent event for the area. The trends are certainly better than they are for the Thursday-Friday timeframe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 would expect to see this thing continue to creep towards the coast, at least the deformation axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 CMC is very close to phasing in a good amount of the northern stream quicker over the conus. This would be a much more organized and potent coastal if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The second S/W coming through the lakes is hurting us in so many ways. First off its missing the initial phase and kicking the initial wave offshore. Second its forming a secondary low and suppressing heights along the coast. We need both S/W to phase and that looks unlikely atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The second S/W coming through the lakes is hurting us in so many ways. First off its missing the initial phase and kicking the initial wave offshore. Second its forming a secondary low and suppressing heights along the coast. We need both S/W to phase and that looks unlikely atm. A lack of phasing will probably end up hurting us in the late week system also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12Z GEFS provides good amout of QPF, but still too warm at the surface I fear. Will see if the op catches up at 18Z or 0Z if the ensembles cave to the operational. It wouldn't take much for this to be a nice little hit, it's going to be an uphill battle the next 36 hrs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 JMA has 978 low on or inside BM for Tuesday. Close to 1" Precip for NYC and more for LI. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SacrydDreamz Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow....we're all snowed out...00z GEM at 60 hours anyone????? http://www.weatherof...ast/695_100.gif I started another thread in the general forum before seeing this thread (still getting used to this format)... anyhow, I commented on how there are quite a few favorable factors on the GFS and NAM, yet no surface low until it's too late. So despite a potent jet streak across the Mid-Atlantic, more than adequate DPVA, and strong lift with robust frontogenesis the low doesn't get cranking until it's east of the Benchmark? Seems strange to me... I'd be concerned that a decent strope of snow sets up from central Long Island to the Cape, at the least. Also, has anyone else noticed how well the GGEM has done this season relative to the GFS? I've seen the GGEM and ECMWF advertise similar solutions several times this season in contrast to the NAM and GFS -- and each time the American models have performed in a subpar fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 funny thing is Jma verification three days and under is at the top of the charts. That would be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not as robust as before, but not a complete miss either. Awaiting Euro Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If JMA is right, It would be a massive fail for euro. JMA is a borderline mecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z NAM is looking pretty amped at 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 How's the Euro QPF for the Mon night/Tue event? At 500 mb, it's slightly more amplified than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 funny thing is Jma verification three days and under is at the top of the charts. That would be something. LOL....you know I was kind of checking that out, but didn't say anything since it's the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 How's the Euro QPF for the Mon night/Tue event? At 500 mb, it's slightly more amplified than the 00z run. Almost zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z NAM is looking pretty amped at 24 hrs. minus the Greenland block, the h5 setup reminds me of 12/26. you have a strong s/w digging into the GOM with a northern s/w trying to capture it and phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 srefs have definately trended stronger and colder. Several have the deform axis moving over the area and I would bet dollars to donuts we see a huge jump at 21z. This storm is starting to act like the other ones this year, stronger and wetter and colder closer to the event. H5 on the NAM is still trending stronger too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 minus the Greenland block, the h5 setup reminds me of 12/26. you have a strong s/w digging into the GOM with a northern s/w trying to capture it and phase PV was on the other side of the globe as well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 H5 on nam is one step closer to a big storm. Out to 36, it just misses a phase. It's trying to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM is having troubloe organizing the energy off the coast, suspicious its not able to resolve the explosive development and is focusing the development on the lead energy and not the energy closer to the trough. Fun day of model watching coming on this little guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Agree trials. Nam is popping 2 lows. The lead one is robbing the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On a down note, we are still gonna have boundary layer temp problems here. Only way to overcome that is to have a stronger system closer to the coast so we can get into a dynamic cooling situation and also have the colder surface air to the north sucked towards the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On a down note, we are still gonna have boundary layer temp problems here. Only way to overcome that is to have a stronger system closer to the coast so we can get into a dynamic cooling situation and also have the colder surface air to the north sucked towards the surface low. Looks as though we may be heading for exactly that solution in the end. Still some time to go........but not that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks as though we may be heading for exactly that solution in the end. Still some time to go........but not that much With these short lead times, this might end up becoming a nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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