A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The event could be another late surprise for people down in S NJ possibly as the event about a month back was where they saw 3-6 and the Cape did well too but everyone in between was missed....its sort of the same thing where the vort could kick off snows down south but then the coastal will take over and everything will go east for people farther north. SG, do you see any parallels between the upcoming week and Feb 1994, when we had 2 storms within a few days of each other, both trending north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 SG, do you see any parallels between the upcoming week and Feb 1994, when we had 2 storms within a few days of each other, both trending north? Not too much...last week's ordeal was much similar with the initial event that hit mainly SNE and then the bigger storm the next day...everything was shift about 150 miles north though vs. 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow....we're all snowed out...00z GEM at 60 hours anyone????? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow....we're all snowed out...00z GEM at 60 hours anyone????? http://www.weatherof...ast/695_100.gif lol snowed out or snowed in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow....we're all snowed out...00z GEM at 60 hours anyone????? http://www.weatherof...ast/695_100.gif Yea, I saw this ....and by the way I hate this map, its a pain to read, I'm sure you would agree. This model has been consistent though.FWIW - I noticed it actually got todays storm track pretty much right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Precip maps show light rain to mix to moderate snow on GGEM. Interior is nearly all snow. Deepens low to 984 east of BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 more importantly, a storm like this would probably have a + effect on the later threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 That's a strong changeover back to snow on the GGEM, bodes well for the system behind that one if it's amped up and develops in time to change us back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 00Z RGEM through 48 is much sharper with the 500mb signature over AL and the FL panhandle...the NAM has the 546 height only to the TN/AL border while the RGEM has it digging to the AL/FL panhandle border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 00Z RGEM through 48 is much sharper with the 500mb signature over AL and the FL panhandle...the NAM has the 546 height only to the TN/AL border while the RGEM has it digging to the AL/FL panhandle border. Is that good? Sorry, I'm learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm thinking this one will trend NW like most other rapidly deepening systems this year. RGEM has the right idea IMO. The 00Z RGEM through 48 is much sharper with the 500mb signature over AL and the FL panhandle...the NAM has the 546 height only to the TN/AL border while the RGEM has it digging to the AL/FL panhandle border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 SREF's just won't quit...still a good amount of hits in the individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 SREF's just won't quit...still a good amount of hits in the individuals. What do the ECM ENS show for this event? I heard the ECM OP trended a bit closer but still not great. Is that true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What do the ECM ENS show for this event? I heard the ECM OP trended a bit closer but still not great. Is that true? That's correct...they are stronger and have more precip back into the cold sector via what looks like an inverted trough (also what we're seeing on the srefs in some cases) ...when compared to 12z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What do the ECM ENS show for this event? I heard the ECM OP trended a bit closer but still not great. Is that true? I was wondering the same, the event occurs between the 48-72 hour taus so its impossible to tell what it shows...the NAM is relentless in not grabbing onto this event which has to be a concern since its been so good all winter...then again it has had issues resolving things off the SE coast alot. The 06Z NAM is more supppressed than the 00Z but honestly that does not surprise me since the 06Z NAM is almost always suppressed as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 These inverted trough events are almost always poorly modeled until 24-36 hours out. That's correct...they are stronger and have more precip back into the cold sector via what looks like an inverted trough (also what we're seeing on the srefs in some cases) ...when compared to 12z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 06Z RGEM Hour 54 MSLP and 3 hour precip. Most of the precip along the coast until the very end is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 One thing is for sure, there will likely be heavy migration into this thread today since this is starting to at least become the more certain event as of now even if the temps are marginal...if we get a low as deep as the RGEM we should be able to get enough dynamic cooling for something to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM likely way out to lunch on this. GFS has a little more of a clue, but still not deepening the offshore low nearly enough given the nice baroclinic zone in place. Looks like this system could deepen 20+ mb in 12 hours as it heads near or SE of Nantucket. One thing is for sure, there will likely be heavy migration into this thread today since this is starting to at least become the more certain event as of now even if the temps are marginal...if we get a low as deep as the RGEM we should be able to get enough dynamic cooling for something to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z NAM h5 looking a bit better through 18hrs so far. Digging more and little higher heights along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The SREFs were terrible but they are relatively useless at 21Z and 09Z since you don't know what impacts the 12 and 00 upper air soundings could have on the 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The SREFs were terrible but they are relatively useless at 21Z and 09Z since you don't know what impacts the 12 and 00 upper air soundings could have on the 12Z runs. The only thing I take from them right now is the fact that they have trended significantly colder over the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The only thing I take from them right now is the fact that they have trended significantly colder over the past 2 days. I'm a little confused as to where the all the cold air is for this system. I thought this was part of an arctic front progged to push through. I need to look at this more closely, but if that was indeed the case and with a bombing LP off the coast then I would think there would be more cold air in the region than what is currntly being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm a little confused as to where the all the cold air is for this system. I thought this was part of an arctic front progged to push through. I need to look at this more closely, but if that was indeed the case and with a bombing LP off the coast then I would think there would be more cold air in the region than what is currntly being shown. I think the whole issue what that originally the models were hanging back a bit of the primary low (which I believe was a clipper) across the great lakes and has it absorbed into the coastal low too late. But doing that, it keeps the winds on more of a ENE to NE trajectory vs a NNE to N trajectory. Now the models are going with a much weaker (almost non-existant) clipper low and that allows the coastal to draw in much colder air. The GFS was a great example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM with just some light precip, main system remains offshore. We are at 48 hours now, would think the 12Z models would start to have some agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 2m temps are still not going to get the job done according to the NAM. 850s are more than cold enough. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 RGEM continues to be west...seems to run the low over the benchmark...it appears to have probably 12mm or so for NYC from 00Z-12Z....all overnight, likely snow despite what it might try to show on ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I think the whole issue what that originally the models were hanging back a bit of the primary low (which I believe was a clipper) across the great lakes and has it absorbed into the coastal low too late. But doing that, it keeps the winds on more of a ENE to NE trajectory vs a NNE to N trajectory. Now the models are going with a much weaker (almost non-existant) clipper low and that allows the coastal to draw in much colder air. The GFS was a great example of that. Yes, your right and I was already aware of this too, I guess I was still half asleep when I wrote that....LOL. You know, looking at the new 12Z NAM, it really doesn't look that far away from a nice little event for this area. Looking at the soundings, it's the SSE wind at the surface thats really killing the whole thing. If the coastal gets cranked up just a little sooner then is being shown, which looks like it's entirely possible, then it wouldn't be an issue because we wouldn't have those S winds. Upper levels look just fine, as was mentioned. This last gulf system that we just had was shown similar to this on the NAM, meaning spread out and weaker, when in fact it ended up being more consolidated and stronger therefore further west as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z GFS looks pretty good at 42 hrs. Stronger, more consolidated low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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