EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GEFS mean from 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 uuuum- what "big ticket" item? Am i missing something? The end of the week storm is our potential big ticket item, plus it occurs in a time period well known for big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It just seems to me that everyone is overlooking this and looking to the end of the week potential (although I'm looking at that one as well) now that the EC has followed the GFS with a suppressed solution it definitely has some credence...the first one has more potential i believe...not that either is looking great right now (or will would wind up being a big ticket event either). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The end of the week storm is our potential big ticket item, plus it occurs in a time period well known for big snowstorms. dont like the set up- its a very progressive pattern...there is no big ticket item in this type of pattern (unless you get lucky to be under a 4" an hr type band for 3 hours- like we were)...otherwise hope for a 4-8" type event and be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 those are some impressive sref members, although some would be a sloppy mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 interesting to say the least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 dont like the set up- its a very progressive pattern...there is no big ticket item in this type of pattern (unless you get lucky to be under a 4" an hr type band for 3 hours- like we were)...otherwise hope for a 4-8" type event and be happy That would be a lot better than the last two storms (including the one we're "in" right now.) Anything but a cutter would be welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 this thread isn't about any big tickets items so lets keep it about the the 7/8 event that is sitll on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 now that the EC has followed the GFS with a suppressed solution it definitely has some credence...the first one has more potential i believe...not that either is looking great right now (or will would wind up being a big ticket event either). ?? The euro is actually a tick northwest of it's 0z run and has in no way followed the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 now that the EC has followed the GFS with a suppressed solution it definitely has some credence...the first one has more potential i believe...not that either is looking great right now (or will would wind up being a big ticket event either). I never said anything would happen. End of the week is "big ticket" since EURO and GFS showed a BECS at one time.....that is all EDIT - LOL........didn't realize he was talking about the wrong event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 guys please, if you want to talk about the later event, please bring it to that thread, lets talk about the 7/8 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z nam is coming in more amplified with the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 hummm, the GFs has been suppressed with the feb 10th event the entire time, hasnt it? 2 runs ago the EC had a 982 bomb off the coast....stop looking at one run...the euro has now being suppressed two runs in a row....the gfs has been suppressed consistently...hence it went towards the suppressed solution.. either way, its a bad set up....and its not a very exciting situation, unless you are grasping at straws... well the 12z euro drops upwards of 0.50" of qpf toward NYC...and there is a lot more just to our south and west. 1" qpf into DC and HECS type amounts for SEVA. Let me ask you something, let's say the GFS right now was showing a hit for NYC and the Euro had the low being a coastal hugger...which solution would you give more credence to given the time frame we're in? mods, i realize this is the wrong thread. please feel free to move this bantering into the correct thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 eta at 15z still looks pretty good. At least its consistent, even if wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z nam is coming in more amplified with the shortwave. Makes sense given the srefs are. its gonna be another day or two until we see some concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z NAM is closer to the coast with the storm. Long island get heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z NAM is closer to the coast with the storm. Long island get heavy precip. Looks like the upper level energy provides support for wet snow even though the coastal is still ots. NAM too unreliable in this range to put any stock in it either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 925mb temperatures are above freezing through 69 hours...no dice. Not going to cut it with that setup..primary 925mb low is into Toronto before it reforms off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like the upper level energy provides support for wet snow even though the coastal is still ots. NAM too unreliable in this range to put any stock in it either way. Yea, need to wait a little longer before I can put much faith in the NAM. FWIW, 18Z 850's plenty cold enough, but possible BL issues EDIT - (Yea.....what earthlight said....lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 925mb temperatures are above freezing through 69 hours...no dice. Not going to cut it with that setup..primary 925mb low is into Toronto before it reforms off the coast. Yip no ignoring the 925 and surface temps. The only hope would be to get an organized deform band which could cool the column. Its a stretch, but has happened in the past. I believe its a night time event too. Which helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z GFS continues the west trend and increases precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z GFS continues the west trend and increases precip. I know we're not supposed to talk about the other storm in here, but I have to say that next week is becoming reminiscent of Feb 1994; 2 possible storms after a thaw, both slowly trending north on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 here is our old friend the 21z eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You know, in all honesty, I wouldn't be surprised to see drastically different solutions upcoming for this event or the following one for that matter. The event today was very poorly modeled and I'm sure that will have effects on everything else downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z nam looks way different than previous runs, no or little ohio low and 925's are cold, just under .1 with low 500 miles off ack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z nam looks way different than previous runs, no or little ohio low and 925's are cold, just under .1 with low 500 miles off ack. This is going to be the more significant event for next week. Monday evening starts as rain in nyc metro and changes to moderate snow after midnight as the coastal forms and intensifies with accumulations - stay tuned................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This is going to be the more significant event for next week. Monday evening starts as rain in nyc metro and changes to moderate snow after midnight as the coastal forms and intensifies with accumulations - stay tuned................... I guess you dont think the following event will be of much significance then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Agreed, and told co-workers Monday night Tuesday could be a sleeper storm, meaning poorly modelled snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Agreed, and told co-workers Monday night Tuesday could be a sleeper storm, meaning poorly modelled snow event. The event could be another late surprise for people down in S NJ possibly as the event about a month back was where they saw 3-6 and the Cape did well too but everyone in between was missed....its sort of the same thing where the vort could kick off snows down south but then the coastal will take over and everything will go east for people farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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