TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah that's the second run of the old ETA to bring the goods.... Plenty cold at the surface too based on the 540 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Plenty cold at the surface too based on the 540 line. It gets ugly at H925 at 75 hours though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It gets ugly at H925 at 75 hours though..... where are you getting 925 temps on the old eta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 where are you getting 925 temps on the old eta? I was looking at the NAM....sorry should have specified that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I was looking at the NAM....sorry should have specified that..... I was gonna say, eta looks nice and at 72 hours the storm is still to the south. Wouldn't expect much from the NAM at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I was gonna say, eta looks nice and at 72 hours the storm is still to the south. Wouldn't expect much from the NAM at this time frame. Well, I wouldn't get my hopes up looking at the ETA, lol, but that's just me.....We might need to take these next 2 on the chin to get the big one late next week. I know no one wants to hear this, but gut tells me this is probably the most likely outcome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well, I wouldn't get my hopes up looking at the ETA, lol, but that's just me.....We might need to take these next 2 on the chin to get the big one late next week. I know no one wants to hear this, but gut tells me this is probably the most likely outcome... I'm fine losing on these next two, but the one at 78 is still quite alive. Tomorrow's has been dead for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm fine losing on these next two, but the one at 78 is still quite alive. Tomorrow's has been dead for days. This might be our Nina payback....the last storm as well. It was bound to happen at some point....I'm certainly not tossing the towel on Tuesday yet, but I wouldn't be expecting much. Things look good for later next week, imo...It's been a great, great winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah that's the second run of the old ETA to bring the goods...looks like there is some interference though north of the Lakes and our big storm coming on shore through Seattle that might make this one a no go..... From my memory this season whenever someone has posted the old ETA and it has the same idea as the Euro it has eventually verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Canadian provides a nice little event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Several sref members keying in on a deform zone with the Tuesday threat Thermal profiles aren't very good for some of the members but a few do have 850's below zero with the heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the old eta just won't quit. All the eta members on the srefs are barking too. Funny to see it so steadfast on the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the old eta just won't quit. All the eta members on the srefs are barking too. Funny to see it so steadfast on the storm Nam is looking much better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 yes, nam did make major improvements at H5 but it really send the surface low east. Not sure if it is keying in on convection and misplacing the surface reflection. Definately a big step towards a more amplfied solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0Z -> 6Z -> 12Z NAM has each brought the precip shield further west on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 biggest concerns are getting the storm for form close enough to the coast yet and be cold enough. 850's are probably going to be fine, but there could be some nasty warm layers around 925 and below. This is going to be a fun little vort to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 biggest concerns are getting the storm for form close enough to the coast yet and be cold enough. 850's are probably going to be fine, but there could be some nasty warm layers around 925 and below. This is going to be a fun little vort to track. Yeah. The few models that bring low close enough also have a pretty warm boundary layer. That Ohio low is pumping south winds before the coastal tries go take over. 850's are plenty cold. But we need the Ohio low to either be weak or more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0Z -> 6Z -> 12Z NAM has each brought the precip shield further west on each run. Remember where most models had todays storm 24-48 out. Well out to sea or at worst scraping the coast... Now Indiana & Detriot are getting snow from it... Still time for this to trend N/W, although if it does it probably kills the storm after that anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS much more amplified through 48 hours. This solution is likely to be closer to the coast than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Ohio low is deepening at 57. South winds are creating major boundary layer issues now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 best precip and the low are too far east. Still not writing this off, H5 continues to sharpen And yes, boundary temps are a big concern but if the system got organized quicker and the heavier precip was over the area I think it would be 34 and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 best precip and the low are too far east. Still not writing this off, H5 continues to sharpen And yes, boundary temps are a big concern but if the system got organized quicker and the heavier precip was over the area I think it would be 34 and snow. Thats cool. Better to see it east of the area than west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z Canadian continues to be a decent hit, especially for areas 50-100 miles north and west of NYC. It then bombs that into a very nice 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS Ensembles are still a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS ensembles had a big shift west, even more than the NAM and op. GFS. GFS Ensembles are still a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It seems everyone has jumped over to the "big ticket" item. I'm not surprised, I'm still quite interested in this event and being that this would have big impacts in what happens moving forward I figured I would say something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It seems everyone has jumped over to the "big ticket" item. I'm not surprised, I'm still quite interested in this event and being that this would have big impacts in what happens moving forward I figured I would say something. uuuum- what "big ticket" item? Am i missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 uuuum- what "big ticket" item? Am i missing something? It just seems to me that everyone is overlooking this and looking to the end of the week potential (although I'm looking at that one as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 15z mean serfs 66 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 60 hour 700rh 850 temps 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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