EasternLI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I never take the euro temps at the surface seriously. They are always too warm. That sounds like you just described a "bomb" with it getting down to 988mb. With that and the track you described, sounds like it would end up being a little colder. Although, too early to start that debate. Track and other steering factors more important at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That sounds like you just described a "bomb" with it getting down to 988mb. With that and the track you described, sounds like it would end up being a little colder. Although, too early to start that debate. Track and other steering factors more important at this time. Its going to be warm at the surface to start but its not like its 50 degrees. Being that the euro had nothing last night for this event, its way too early to say anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6zNam Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is an arctic front right? wouldn't we just need to be on the correct side of the front to get snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Its going to be warm at the surface to start but its not like its 50 degrees. Being that the euro had nothing last night for this event, its way too early to say anything. Oh I agree, IF this were to happen that way and with an arctic front being involved I would expect some cold air would be available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 EC DAY 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What kind of QPF is the Euro showing for Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Precip rates look intense and its a bombing low. The way 850's crash, it likely snows. Sticking is another thing, but beggers can't be chosers. sticking really isnt another thing. heavy snow accumulates, period. if it isn't accumulating, it isn't a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Precip rates look intense and its a bombing low. The way 850's crash, it likely snows. Sticking is another thing, but beggers can't be chosers. Under these conditions you can typically get a very heavy wet snow all the way up to 36F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Really like the signals for this storm. I do think a coastal low is likely, and still think models are overemphasizing the primary. With the arctic front swinging through you would expect a coastal storm to pull in cold air as the northern shortwave phases in. The coastal will develop along the baroclinic zone. If anything maybe a rain to quick thump of snow for NYC. This threat definitely deserves adequate attention. Could easily even say the potential for a moderate snowstorm for areas N and W of the city is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On another note on sticking. Most places outside of Manhattan has a massive snowpack. White it may not stick on major roads, there is snow already basically everywhere and any intensity snow will stick to already existing snow. Side streets will no doubt get covered as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On another note on sticking. Most places outside of Manhattan has a massive snowpack. White it may not stick on major roads, there is snow already basically everywhere and any intensity snow will stick to already existing snow. Side streets will no doubt get covered as well. Agreed. My post was more to make sure everyone knew what was falling I believed to be snow, regardless of the surface temps. FYI, several sref members starting to come in with amped solutions now. Here is the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 sticking really isnt another thing. heavy snow accumulates, period. if it isn't accumulating, it isn't a big storm. We've got feet of snow on the ground coated with ice. What isn't new snow going to stick to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We've got feet of snow on the ground coated with ice. What isn't new snow going to stick to? the streets of manhattan for one, but who cares. Snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the streets of manhattan for one, but who cares. Snow is snow. Exactly. We just get rid of the snow in the street anyway, then we look at and recreate in the other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z Nam coming in much more amplified for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18Z Nam looks ready to go boom based on H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18Z Nam looks ready to go boom based on H5 agree.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 lol. i know i know...just taking 18z nam at face value here. but....look out northern VA to central PA, heavy snow squalls from the front lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM will get there, its always late to the party. This is a Miller B so its going to be close by nature for the NYC metro to time the cold and the bombing low. I think we do ok (2-4 / 3-6) but we got to get the timing perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the streets of manhattan for one, but who cares. Snow is snow. It would have stuck if the city still looked like this: This is 1st Avenue between 54th and 55th street. Not sure of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It would have stuck if the city still looked like this: This is 1st Avenue between 54th and 55th street. Not sure of the year. Looks like New Amsterdam. Nice Pict, I was the music editor for Ric Burn's "New York: A Documentary" The pictures/paintings/drawings he dug up of the city were mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here is the OLD eta for this event. 850's clearly support snow but based on the 540 line surface is probably above 32. Regardless, its snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS wide right at 18z but there appears to be some precip with the upper level energy. Wouldn't expect the GFS to catch on for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It would have stuck if the city still looked like this: This is 1st Avenue between 54th and 55th street. Not sure of the year. Looks like the 1800s lol. What's that tower thing on the left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like the 1800s lol. What's that tower thing on the left? Sadly I don't know. But the pic is quite dramatic in showing the contrast between then and now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sadly I don't know. But the pic is quite dramatic in showing the contrast between then and now. i bet the guys on the horse are looking for parking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We aren't going to have this sorted out for a few days still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The NAM is really digging the shortwave this run...at 66 hours the max is in northern LA headed for a dip in the GOM...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The NAM is really digging the shortwave this run...at 66 hours the max is in northern LA headed for a dip in the GOM...... Check out the 21z eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Check out the 21z eta Yeah that's the second run of the old ETA to bring the goods...looks like there is some interference though north of the Lakes and our big storm coming on shore through Seattle that might make this one a no go..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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