jconsor Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wanted to start a thread on the system developing on the arctic front early next week. GFS ensembles are trending toward a more significant wave on the arctic front late Mon night into Tue as a shortwave digs more strongly into the TN Valley. 4 of the 6z GFS ensemble members now bring significant QPF (over 0.25") to the entire NYC area, and another one clips eastern LI with over 0.25". Only 1 of the 0z GFS ensemble members had over 0.25" QPF for any part of the NYC area. Most of the members showing significant QPF show the storm deepening around 20-24 mb in 12 hours as it heads SE of Cape Cod. While most here are glued to the Feb 9-10 threat, this is more imminent and has potential if current trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yup, and the formation of this system also has major implications on where the 9-11th storm will track..Correct me if I'm wrong, but a stronger developing system on the 7-8th would probably aid in a further east track of the 9-11th threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nice post. I think the storm for later in the week is overshadowing the potential in the nearer term, which may wind up a better chance for snow for most in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Good thread, and good information as usual my friend. I've heard this treat mentioned but it seems it's been overlooked for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yup, and the formation of this system also has major implications on where the 9-11th storm will track..Correct me if I'm wrong, but a stronger developing system on the 7-8th would probably aid in a further east track of the 9-11th threat. If this storm blows up, there's our pseudo-50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If this storm blows up, there's our pseudo-50/50. Yeah agreed, that all still relies on good timing as even if its a stronger storm it will still move through the 50/50 position quickly. I was thinking more along the lines of just shoving the whole baroclinic zone further east for the 9-11th storm to then work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 srefs, rsm, and eta continue to inch closer to the coast. The amplification of the trough is screaming for something to try to come up the coast, the question will be will the surface reflection on the front be too far out ahead of the trough to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 CMC ensembles from 00z last night. Several members developing the storm up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 interesting at 500mb. if the energy over the OH valley can dive in further SE and link up with the southern wave along the SE coast, this can BLOW the eff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS way more amplified at 84 hours, extrememly close to bringing a storm to the area. Sadly, this model is not performing well with EC events lately so take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 gfs same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not surprised the GGEM shows this, the GFS should have shown it but for its bias. We are gonna have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Criiiiiiiiiiipes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not surprised the GGEM shows this, the GFS should have shown it but for its bias. We are gonna have a storm. What do the temp profiles look like for the GGEM? We don't want BL issues spoiling all the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Better shot of the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not surprised the GGEM shows this, the GFS should have shown it but for its bias. We are gonna have a storm. Shows energy opushing into the Tenn valley at hour 144 for the later week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Right now the 84 hour threat has real legs. GFS has pushed closer and closer and the SREFS are moving that way too. Even the old eta came in much more amplified today. The ggem is more of what I thought the GFS should look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What do the temp profiles look like for the GGEM? We don't want BL issues spoiling all the fun. preciep maps has us raining going to mod snow before we end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 LOL, looks like the ggem was hacked by the weenies today, it has the next threat too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 These setups are tricky as the exact position of the trough and baroclinic zone are major determinants of where the LP develops. However I do agree this period warrants attention, and based purely off the 12z GFS H5 depiction, a SECS is possible. Based on the H5 depiction of the GFS one would have expected a better outcome. It appears as if the GFS is having difficulty determining and sorting out the interaction between the two shortwaves. For some reason it wants to emphasize the primary which cuts into the OV and keep it as the main center of attention before transferring too late to a secondary coastal. The primary gets hung up in the OV with confluence overtop, at this point one would expect with a deep trough and lots of energy in the base, a phase or transfer of energy to occur. The GFS is just a bit late, but with the trough being negative one could easily make the argument a better solution is forthcoming in future runs. Will see how the interaction is handled later. As for the following threat, if the GFS depiction at H5 is correct, I don't think you need to worry about an interior system. Temporary blocking and a nice polar vortex in my opinion would limit the systems progression to the interior with the strong confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro is extremely amplified at 78 hours with a 1002 primary over the tennessee valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 84 hours energy transferring to the coast 850 line just below nyc and 32 degree surface on top of nyc. Lots of precip off the carolina coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro coming in much more amplified than 0z, maybe it follows the GGEm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 90 hours coastal getting going off the delmarva. 850 line just west of NYC. If its going to snow, everything needs to collapse to the coastal. Not sure it will happen this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 96 hours 850 crash to below zero off the coast and there is a 988 low off of the cape. Not sure how much is snow between 90 and 96, but I imagine its a lot like the ggem. Rain to snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 90 hours coastal getting going off the delmarva. 850 line just west of NYC. If its going to snow, everything needs to collapse to the coastal. Not sure it will happen this run. Yeah 850's cool off...but surface is warm...at hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah 850's cool off...but surface is warm...at hr 96 I never take the euro temps at the surface seriously. They are always too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I never take the euro temps at the surface seriously. They are always too warm. The storm cutting to our west transfering to the costal will give us a southerly wind....we will have bl issues no doubt......its not just the euro bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The storm cutting to our west transfering to the costal will give us a southerly wind....we will have bl issues no doubt......its not just the euro bias Precip rates look intense and its a bombing low. The way 850's crash, it likely snows. Sticking is another thing, but beggers can't be chosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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