ma blizzard Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Almost no front end snow until you are well up into NNE. It mostly comes as the low is bombing and a CCB forms. There are some icing concerns though for Berkshires and into S VT and over to SW NH and N/C MA. so essentially its going to be 32.4 imby in the low lands of shrewsbury, while you are 31 and have minor icing concerns .. exciting .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro not too shabby for parts of the area with tues. Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 33 and rain tomorrow. congrats to all the rain wishers Welcome to the current +NAO/AO pattern. La Nina rearing itself now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Who in God's name wants rain with all of the roof issues already around. That amount of rain will add a huge amount of weight to the snowpack on roofs. Nobody wished for rain. That's the last thing I want, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Tuesday storm very healthy up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Preach. Gather your flock Reverend for they stray from thy path...thy path is white with huge neat mounds on both sides. We're all gonna lose 1-2 feet tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro not too shabby for parts of the area with tues. Storm Yeah it blows up just in time to get ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What are the thoughts regarding % zr vs %sn in that freezing area? Hopefully shortlived ice. Probably half ZR and half snow for you...hard to say for sure. Luckily I think the ice would be relatively marginal with temps not too far below freezing and given this whole event isn't exactly a heavy qpf event down in SNE...it wouldn't be more than a couple tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah it blows up just in time to get ern areas. What a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Gotta think wagons west for Tuesday now ..What's a hit now..will be west by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Probably half ZR and half snow for you...hard to say for sure. Luckily I think the ice would be relatively marginal with temps not too far below freezing and given this whole event isn't exactly a heavy qpf event down in SNE...it wouldn't be more than a couple tenths. Thanks. Sounds like a zero-sum game, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Who in God's name wants rain with all of the roof issues already around. That amount of rain will add a huge amount of weight to the snowpack on roofs. If you only care about roofs I'd say rain with some melting and runoff would be better than adding more snow unless the rain just gets stopped in the ice dams to cause leaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What's the timing of onset on the various models? Dave's trying to figure if he cna cancel his polar beat festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If you only care about roofs I'd say rain with some melting and runoff would be better than adding more snow unless the rain just gets stopped in the ice dams to cause leaks. Adding rain instead of snow is not really a good thing, while perhaps we see some melting of the snow for the most part the rain is just going to be absorbed, plus there are quite a bit of drains which are clogged in the region. Whether or not tomorrow is mostly snow or mostly rain it's going to add to the roof issues and I suspect we see quite a bit more reports of roof collapses tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro is juiced up here .75" coastal plain, 1.0" Extreme downeast, .50" back thru the foothills How much of that will fall as snow/rain here in Portland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 wow! really seems like the GGEM and UKMET "slam" NNE compared to the American models. over .5" qpf with both....solid 6" storm up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ya know....the Euro isn't God this year. I'm not sure I buy something THAT warm. I don't think people up here and in ME and GC should view this as a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 still not bringing much into the higher terrain of western ME?? .50" back towards Farmington, .25-.50" back into the Mtns, FWIW, Taken verbatium on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I guess all we can hope for at this point is that the Euro is too warm at the surface and we stay ice instead of a snowpack destroying rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I guess all we can hope for at this point is that the Euro is too warm at the surface and we stay ice instead of a snowpack destroying rain Are you talking for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Adding rain instead of snow is not really a good thing, while perhaps we see some melting of the snow for the most part the rain is just going to be absorbed, plus there are quite a bit of drains which are clogged in the region. Whether or not tomorrow is mostly snow or mostly rain it's going to add to the roof issues and I suspect we see quite a bit more reports of roof collapses tomorrow. So then if you care about roofs the only good thing would be an OTS or a torch. Just sayin... Every time it turns to rain people start saying oh think about the roofs! Well snow will add the same amount of weight per amount of precipitable water but will also have no runoff from melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I guess all we can hope for at this point is that the Euro is too warm at the surface and we stay ice instead of a snowpack destroying rain You may lose 4"..lol. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Are you talking for tomorrow? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Probably close to reality...rain with junk in the far interior changing to snow. some how the 12z gfs bufkit snowfall algortithm thingy gives boston 4.5" of snow on the backend. Is that what you are seeing? I see 2.5" on the 12z nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How does the euro look for the NEK in VT? the other globals are showing up to .5"...what the euro showing for tomorrow and tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I guess all we can hope for at this point is that the Euro is too warm at the surface and we stay ice instead of a snowpack destroying rain It wont be that...well for areas that get over 40F it will be, but you are probably going to be a 34F and rain type deal which won't do much to the snow pack. It would probably do just as much as ice would. Basically just increase the water content of it and not really melt much of it. Magic number seems to be about 37F dewpoint during the rain events to ramp up the melting. Also, its not a big pf event either. Mostly in the 0.5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ya know....the Euro isn't God this year. I'm not sure I buy something THAT warm. I don't think people up here and in ME and GC should view this as a loss. Its not that warm at the surface, I think its just the coast that may flip here, Its snow mainly, 4-8" 5-10" maybe, The tuesday storm is a bomb, Up here , 6+ of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So then if you care about roofs the only good thing would be an OTS or a torch. Just sayin... Every time it turns to rain people start seeing oh think about the roofs! Well snow will add the same amount of weight per amount of precipitable water but will also have no runoff from melting. Yeah the folks worried about the roofs definitely would want to see an OTS track. I want as much snow as possible though, I'm all about history and records. Were starting to get really close in areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes What are the sfc winds like on the euro? If they are more to the N/NE rather than anything southerly than I suppose there is a chance they could be overdone a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It wont be that...well for areas that get over 40F it will be, but you are probably going to be a 34F and rain type deal which won't do much to the snow pack. It would probably do just as much as ice would. Basically just increase the water content of it and not really melt much of it. Magic number seems to be about 37F dewpoint during the rain events to ramp up the melting. Also, its not a big pf event either. Mostly in the 0.5" range. It still ruins the good streak we've had and pisses me off to no end. i'll just hope I stay 32..and can get a few inches on the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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