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February 5-6 Storm Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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GFS suddenly got interesting for Tuesday.

this is what i was alluding to....decreased spacing will decrease my chances for snow next week.....but should increase your chances.

in the end, the one who gets screwed the most is me not that anyone cares though :lol: .....(not enough west with the first wave to get me, but just enough west to ensure the next system passes to my east):arrowhead:

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im quite disappointed to see this happen......

hard to believe the RGEM was onto something all along.

i am sure it will mess up chances for next week as well by decreasing spacing.:thumbsdown:

RGEM has been doing VERY well the last few weeks. If they put out better public maps we'd all see it more easily.

GFS suddenly got interesting for Tuesday.

Yes but if you factor in that it's been too cold and too far SE at this range for a few weeks what we end up with is another C/NNE event.

Lets have your rook leak in 8 different places with rain en route on top of a 30" snowpack, then reacces how you feel....get back to me.

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RGEM has been doing VERY well the last few weeks. If they put out better public maps we'd all see it more easily.

Yes but if you factor in that it's been too cold and too far SE at this range for a few weeks what we end up with is another C/NNE event.

Euro also was trying to show this feature at 00z. I'm just pointing out what the GFS shows.

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Yes, With the blocking relaxed storms are trending further north, As we move further into winter, We seem to have more opportunity's typically as temps at this lat hold on longer and we have very good snow pack retention here

Can't check right now as I'm mobile, but this brings a mix threat to my area, no? Looks pretty close. I'm still riding the consistent Doc anyway.

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RGEM has been doing VERY well the last few weeks. If they put out better public maps we'd all see it more easily.

Yes but if you factor in that it's been too cold and too far SE at this range for a few weeks what we end up with is another C/NNE event.

messenger

im a fan of the 48hr RGEM when it agrees with the NAM....i consider its a near lock or would at least bias the forecast towards it, unless the GFS/euro agree on an alternate solution.

going back to the big storm last week, the RGEM was the best all along at least in the midwest and eastern lakes through NYS... being furthest NW and amped with the temp profiles. it did very well. even the euro played catchup to it.

its a good model.

the GGEM on the other hand.......

the issue is the canadian public and the canadian goverment dont have much interest in forecasts beyond 48 hrs.

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Yes, We don't have that stale maritime air in here with no place to go, Cold is dumping in here from the region its suppose to be, Back to a more typical winter

yeah thats the thing

when the +AO gets prolonged and stagnant, last yr is the result.

you need that AO to flush every now and then for a period of time it seems.

this year has been much better that way, even if the AO does return now.....we wont go maritime since it takes a while to buildup i would think.

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Makes more sense synoptically to have this a bit east of where the euro has it. Will be shocked if that doesn't happen tonight

whistle.gif

Wht I figured...probably a modest net loss with another potential hugger next week....blah.

Ditto that.

After an incredible 5 weeks, I'm feeling the juju withdrawal too... but one blah storm does not make a pattern change, and there are still believable signs that both Tuesday and Thurs/Fri next week may pleasantly surprise. Again, antecedent cold has been a key factor in January, and it will return next week. 1995/96 will be in our sights a month from now.

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whistle.gif

Ditto that.

After an incredible 5 weeks, I'm feeling the juju withdrawal too... but one blah storm does not make a pattern change, and there are still believable signs that both Tuesday and Thurs/Fri next week may pleasantly surprise. Again, antecedent cold has been a key factor in January, and it will return next week. 1995/96 will be in our sights a month from now.

Must have taken you awhile to dig that one up. For the few posters that have been posting about and wishing for a non all snow event for SNE...congrats..you get your wish

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whistle.gif

Ditto that.

After an incredible 5 weeks, I'm feeling the juju withdrawal too... but one blah storm does not make a pattern change, and there are still believable signs that both Tuesday and Thurs/Fri next week may pleasantly surprise. Again, antecedent cold has been a key factor in January, and it will return next week. 1995/96 will be in our sights a month from now.

There will always be a break, I can't stress that hard enough. It's ok, the world will continue to exist if we see a milder period.

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Now that my roof is leaking and we have rainers on the way, I'd like to worm-hole to spring.

Ray! Ray! You end this with a snowpack that is more robust, crusted over and a couple of inches of powder on top. Then you get some on Tuesday...and maybe buried Thurs Fri. 19069 baby! Keep the faith, join the circle. BWIOCoTFTW

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