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February 5-6 Storm Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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38/29 temps seem to have leveled off for the time being but dews are gradually creeping up. Have barely had a drop of rain all day and the radar doesnt look impressive at all aside from a few rain showers. Maybe now that the ULL is starting to creep closer it'll fill in some but maybe we get away with a few rain showers here and just a mid 30s torch all night. Some precip would actually bring the temps down a bit.

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This storm is basically a non-event in CT even in the NW hills. Pretty much all liquid now.

Until the precip picks up, it's been a slow event here. We've got the cold in place (so far) and the roads are tough from the zr that's come through.. Didn't take much ice on top of the snowy roads to make them pretty slick.

Edit: Havent' been paying attention--it had become pretty foggy during the last 45 minutes or so. Vis down to about a 1/4 mile, freezin drizzle continues, and the larget batch of precip is about 1/2 mile away on the radar. Just in time for me to drive my daughter's friend home to Buckland. Joy.

25.8/23

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Well we all avoided a mild rainstorm..I';m not exactly sure what happened..other than the deep snowpack helped hold in the low level cold..and the surface reflection stayed south.

Now we can look forward to the snowstorm Tuesday

The low is still out in Ohio...we'll see how warm it gets...but it will warm up more than it has so far.

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On 18Z NAM Looks like a good hit for many of the VT ski resorts - MRG, Stowe, Jay Peak and others should all be awesome tomorrow. Some of the NH and ME resorts look good too.

Seems to dodge a bullet here on the CP - torching temps but not a lot of rain, thank god. It wouldn't take much rain for there to be urban flooding my neighborhood.

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BOX says lean cold and icy

NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES FROM LATE THIS MORNING. PER MESONET TEMPS

AOB FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN CT INTO NW RI AND NORTHWARD

INTO INTERIOR MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES

CONTINUE FOR THIS REGION AS WE EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN

INTO THIS EVENING. A BIT TRICKER FORECAST FARTHER EAST INTO

NORTHERN RI AND THE RT-128 AND I-495 CORRIDORS OF NORTHEAST MA

WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE M30S. HOWEVER DEW PTS ARE IN THE U20S

ACROSS THIS REGION SO WET BULB TEMPS AOB FREEZING. GIVEN STEADIER

PRECIP APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL NEAR

FREEZING ONCE PRECIP COMMENCES.

IN ADDITION LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BACK TO

NORTHEAST AS PRES FALL CENTER /7MB FALLS IN PAST 3 HRS!/ ACROSS PA

AND NJ MOVES NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

THUS LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED. EVEN IF

OBS REPORT TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING /AT 2 METERS/ GROUND TEMPS WILL

LIKELY BE A FEW DEGS COLDER GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THIS

AREA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR

THIS AREA AS UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE VERY SLIPPERY INTO THIS

EVENING FROM RT-128 WESTWARD TO I-495.

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BOX says lean cold and icy

NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES FROM LATE THIS MORNING. PER MESONET TEMPS

AOB FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN CT INTO NW RI AND NORTHWARD

INTO INTERIOR MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES

CONTINUE FOR THIS REGION AS WE EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN

INTO THIS EVENING. A BIT TRICKER FORECAST FARTHER EAST INTO

NORTHERN RI AND THE RT-128 AND I-495 CORRIDORS OF NORTHEAST MA

WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE M30S. HOWEVER DEW PTS ARE IN THE U20S

ACROSS THIS REGION SO WET BULB TEMPS AOB FREEZING. GIVEN STEADIER

PRECIP APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL NEAR

FREEZING ONCE PRECIP COMMENCES.

IN ADDITION LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BACK TO

NORTHEAST AS PRES FALL CENTER /7MB FALLS IN PAST 3 HRS!/ ACROSS PA

AND NJ MOVES NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

THUS LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED. EVEN IF

OBS REPORT TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING /AT 2 METERS/ GROUND TEMPS WILL

LIKELY BE A FEW DEGS COLDER GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THIS

AREA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR

THIS AREA AS UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE VERY SLIPPERY INTO THIS

EVENING FROM RT-128 WESTWARD TO I-495.

I'm not sure I buy that. Almost all the mesonet temps I see in Northern CT are AOA 32 degrees. The exception is around Tolland and in neighboring parts of western Windham Co.

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What's the deal with that?

In general, models are ticking a bit closer to the coast with it, could be a light to moderate event around here if they verified verbatim. Boundary layers a bit sketchy in the coastal plain and lower elevations. 15Z SREFs looking a bit more aggressive and a number of the members try to get a nice deformation feature going around here early Tuesday morning.

29 degrees and moderate freezing rain here.

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I'm not sure I buy that. Almost all the mesonet temps I see in Northern CT are AOA 32 degrees. The exception is around Tolland and in neighboring parts of western Windham Co.

I don't know what to think..You would have thought everyone would be in the mid 30's by now. I'm not sure what is causing the colder scenario except the snowpack?? Maybe that is weenieish..I don't know?

It's weird seeing everyone's temps fall back to 31-32

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