OKpowdah Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Been out of the loop the last day and a half... Rejoining this thing, interesting trend of non-commitment to anything worthy of note out of this system today/tonight by most of the models. This may not be true up in central and NE New England, but for SNE, this is probably disappointing to the those that are irresponsibly wishing on additional snow over this glacier. anyway, we certainly are initially cold enough, but my own thoughts regarding how this system would play out from the other day - I think I was talking to Kevin? - do not appear correct. Could we be surprised, eh, yea - but, that's a nowcaster as far that goes. Just have to monitor rad and obs reports. The problem with this system is that the mid level circulation fields /package of vorticity are progged to move NW of the llv thermal gradient, riding over top what is (pending sounding depths) a shallowing cold BL. With virtually no PP N sufficient for keeping ageostrophic vectors going, it will be interesting to see if the llv circulation can actually win against the viscosity of the cold that is in situ and bully across the breadth of the area like that. Those runs of the NAM from 2 days ago placed the vorticity maximum under the latitude of CT/RI, and the profile of the event was different then. The guidance certainly up-ended that idea since... To put it in simple terms, if that bundle of vorticity moved SE of the area, we would DEFINITELY stay snow - even without a high up N that would have been true. If it verifies NW like this, I don't see how snow could predominate this later on. The flip to ZR and plain cold rain is almost a certainty. It is also interesting that every Global model I have seen this morning is opting to no storm at all this week. What the heck happened while I was gone! Tuesday, whiff. Thursday, whiff. This is consistent amid all the guidance, too. CMC, ...even the typically ramped up UKMET is gonner (actually, I forgot about Thur on the UKMET). Looking over the nightly teleconnectors from both agencies, I don't know - maybe the big storm ideas weren't really there all along? Hard to say. Over the next week the NAO does fall from +1SD to nearly neutral before the members then mop-end at CPC. The PNA has an even subtler rise, while remaining negative. These variations are small though. I never looked all that closely at next week, while I was focusing more on tonight's event, but I can tell you that have the Euro and GFS spit out a 930mb low just to our northeast, and it'll have everyone's attention for at the least the next 48 hours worth of model runs, regardless of whether there's actually any storm threat within the pattern in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GYX peeps ... Snow map has been modified somewhat. Increased my area a smidge, maybe yours as well. I'd link but I'm mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Had a few flkaes come down here half an hour ago, but just overcast now. Temps leveled off for the time being. 23.0/15. Even if this were all ice, the low qpf on this makes this a yawner. Guess everyones roofs and snow packs go unchanged. Edit: Yawner for everyone south of the VT/NH line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Torching pretty well here already this morning. Up to 32.9F on my exposed hill, had a light snow shower pass through about half an hour ago. Looks like no frozen here at all, maybe a renegade snow shower on the back end tonight. Wow. Interesting temp spread out there attm. With 23/15, even if it does start to warm here as the precip approaches, I hope some evap cooling might prolong sub-freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 couple of weenie flakes out there but sounds like some sleet falling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 WWA up here in essex county. interesting. couple of weenie flakes out there but sounds like some sleet falling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 box is concerned about ice from worcester to Manchetser Nh with up tp .40! saying warm front never makes it past boston into the evening. so we could maybe see an ice storm warning if that were to verify. any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 box is concerned about ice from worcester to Manchetser Nh with up tp .40! saying warm front never makes it past boston into the evening. so we could maybe see an ice storm warning if that were to verify. any thoughts? ETTING CONCERNED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATESTOBS/SOUNDINGS AND NEW 12Z NAM SUGGEST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR LINGERINGACROSS THE REGION MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING AWAY FROM THECOASTLINE. LOW PRES PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH WARMFRONT LIKELY NOT ADVANCING FARTHER N THAN A BOS-PVD LINE. INADDITION PRES FALLS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THECOMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS WILL PROMOTE N-NE WINDS ACROSSMOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRECLUDINGLOW LEVEL COLD AIR FROM BEING SCOURED OUT.THEREFORE WILL BE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDEALL AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF A BOS-PVD LINE. EXPECT PTYPE TO GOFROM A QUICK PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLYAFTERNOON TO FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.ICE ACCRETION GENERALLY LESS THAN A 0.25 INCH HOWEVER ICING OF0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES POSSIBLY FROM BDL-ORH-MHT AND POINTS WESTWARD.DEFINITELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOONAND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Had snow showers move through around 10:30. Some FZDZ was falling as I drove home from SATs. 31F right now. Will we cool when the precip comes in or a quick rise above 32? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 light rain here, my freaking thermometer is buried here at home so idk how cold it is. Gotta be below freezing though I'd assume... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The pdfamily site's reading are off--it does that on occasion. It has my stadion reportin 34. My actual temp is 23.4 with something light and not flaky coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The pdfamily site's reading are off--it does that on occasion. It has my stadion reportin 34. My actual temp is 23.4 with something light and not flaky coming down. it has temps 2-3 miles apart 10 degrees different around here. I mean it could happen, I know but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ETTING CONCERNED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATESTOBS/SOUNDINGS AND NEW 12Z NAM SUGGEST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR LINGERINGACROSS THE REGION MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING AWAY FROM THECOASTLINE. LOW PRES PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH WARMFRONT LIKELY NOT ADVANCING FARTHER N THAN A BOS-PVD LINE. INADDITION PRES FALLS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THECOMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS WILL PROMOTE N-NE WINDS ACROSSMOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRECLUDINGLOW LEVEL COLD AIR FROM BEING SCOURED OUT.THEREFORE WILL BE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDEALL AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF A BOS-PVD LINE. EXPECT PTYPE TO GOFROM A QUICK PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLYAFTERNOON TO FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.ICE ACCRETION GENERALLY LESS THAN A 0.25 INCH HOWEVER ICING OF0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES POSSIBLY FROM BDL-ORH-MHT AND POINTS WESTWARD.DEFINITELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOONAND EVENING. good find not much dry air to be advected from maine/nh when the winds do go N /NE thou. dewpoints have climbed 15-20 degrees over central and NNE. that being said it is something to watch...........the cold dry airmass is now a cooler/cold stale airmass with higher dp's (mid 20's) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 it has temps 2-3 miles apart 10 degrees different around here. I mean it could happen, I know but still... I htink if you hover over the site, it gives the actual reading (at least what's been transmitted last to wunderground). Are you getting anything down that way attm? (You're in Storrs, right?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 just checked, not even freezing rain here. Just plain old rain. ew and im in Harwinton (Torrington basically) CT right now, home for the weekend. just under 1000' asl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 good find not much dry air to be advected from maine/nh when the winds do go N /NE thou. dewpoints have climbed 15-20 degrees over central and NNE. that being said it is something to watch...........the cold dry airmass is now a cooler/cold stale airmass with higher dp's (mid 20's) . Seems like no sooner did I post my comment about the pdfamily site that it's actually synched back up. Looking at the current depiction, there will need to be a fair amount of cooling for most of the area in order for there to be zr. At lesat to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Seems like no sooner did I post my comment about the pdfamily site that it's actually synched back up. Looking at the current depiction, there will need to be a fair amount of cooling for most of the area in order for there to be zr. At lesat to my untrained eye. Yeah, already up to 30F here with no sunshine. Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, already up to 30F here with no sunshine. Torch. It looks like mid-20's just to your north of ASH so that might bleed down to you. Meanwhile whatever had been coming down here has now started coming down a little harder. Perhaps it's really small sleet balls. Not really sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GYX peeps ... Snow map has been modified somewhat. Increased my area a smidge, maybe yours as well. I'd link but I'm mobile. Thanks, bumped me up to 6". Looks to have lowered inland areas a little and upped Near coastal areas. Maybe taking the storm a little more to the east. 31.6°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks, bumped me up to 6". Looks to have lowered inland areas a little and upped Near coastal areas. Maybe taking the storm a little more to the east. 31.6°F Congrats. My in-laws in bath sent a couple of pictures of their house yesterday. They're in an old house right on Centre ST so they have close neighbors. Between their own and their neighbors' sheding roofs, they got a crazy amount of snow. Close neighbors ftl. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 New map from BOX gives me .7 instead of .1 and says congrats MPM-4". Not sure why they did this exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 New map from BOX gives me .7 instead of .1 and says congrats MPM-4". Not sure why they did this exactly. Awesome--jackpot. lol Light zr attm. 23.9/19 Edit: ip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Max temp has been reached up here, 26.5F in the past hour. Now clouds are thickening and sun is gone and temp has dropped back to 25.9F DP is 13.6F so room for temp to fall once snow begins. If we switch over up here it will be freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Congrats. My in-laws in bath sent a couple of pictures of their house yesterday. They're in an old house right on Centre ST so they have close neighbors. Between their own and their neighbors' sheding roofs, they got a crazy amount of snow. Close neighbors ftl. lol Yes, the houses on Center St. have some crazy piles of snow. Was up there this morning. A lot of folks out clearing their roof today. Good to see they are heeding GYX's advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Max temp has been reached up here, 26.5F in the past hour. Now clouds are thickening and sun is gone and temp has dropped back to 25.9F DP is 13.6F so room for temp to fall once snow begins. If we switch over up here it will be freezing rain. Why not sleet? 24.0/20 ip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 snowing in andover Max temp has been reached up here, 26.5F in the past hour. Now clouds are thickening and sun is gone and temp has dropped back to 25.9F DP is 13.6F so room for temp to fall once snow begins. If we switch over up here it will be freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Snow/ip mix, but it looks like this batch will pass thorugh and a bit of a respite as the area just entering Hampshire county won't be here for about an hour (I thnk). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 34.3 / 25, maybe some evap cooling will lead to brief period of freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Starting to snow in MHT now I am sitting at 30.7 degrees lets see if I can get any cooling. Winds are ssw so not good for cooling we shall see! Miracles can happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 temp/dp climbing here. Up to 24.3/21. Lt zr. Truck window glazed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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