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February 5-6 Storm Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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Wow... taking a peek at the afd up here I could pick up 1-2 feet of snow by a week from now.. 6-10" tonight.. next storm looks mainly snow gyx says, then another threat late next week. O000ooo00 baby!

Is that what your avatar is saying?

Youi gotta change that... it is so...irritating?

Thurs/Fri you looking good?

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Wow... taking a peek at the afd up here I could pick up 1-2 feet of snow by a week from now.. 6-10" tonight.. next storm looks mainly snow gyx says, then another threat late next week. O000ooo00 baby!

The NAM pings you for a bit, but it's close. Could be a nice thump up there.
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That's what I said. Rain on National Weather Person's Day. What a disaster. Beer can't come quick enough, tonight.

LOL that's two rainers this week for me although one was frozen, the pack takes minimal hit with glaze covering. Looks to cool down quick. I did a temperature probe of the snow with one of the expensive lab thermometers here at work, surface is 27 .5 underneath about 6 inches is 24 .

Happy weather guy day.

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I've never seen so much silly whining in one thread for people with epic snow cover after a 5-6 week period that may not be repeated in their lifetimes. Expectations of NEVER having a pattern relaxation are fraught with fail. Let's sit back.....let what happens for the next 1-2 weeks happen and reload back for a furiously epic ending 2/15-20 through 3/15. I drove to the Gaaahden last night to watch the Celtics lose a close game that BOTH teams played quite well in. Driving back, we dropped off one of our daughter's friends and on narrow streets the snowbanks really don't allow any safety in vision. Even walking on main streets you have to be very cautious entering intersections. I'm sure I've never seen this much for so long on the ground here. Losing some before a reload will not be a disaster to my way of thinking. It's an epic winter and not one of you can show me one where the pattern didn't break for a time.

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I've never seen so much silly whining in one thread for people with epic snow cover after a 5-6 week period that may not be repeated in their lifetimes. Expectations of NEVER having a pattern relaxation are fraught with fail. Let's sit back.....let what happens for the next 1-2 weeks happen and reload back for a furiously epic ending 2/15-20 through 3/15. I drove to the Gaaahden last night to watch the Celtics lose a close game that BOTH teams played quite well in. Driving back, we dropped off one of our daughter's and on narrow streets the snowbanks really don't allow any safety in vision. Even walking on main streets you have to be very cautious entering intersections. I'm sure I've never seen this much for so long on the ground here. Losing some before a reload will not be a disaster to my way of thinking. It's an epic winter and not one of you can show me one where the pattern didn't break for a time.

Right on! I still cant believe I have had a snowpack since 12/26, with two more chances this week alone to add to it, its beyond epic.

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I've never seen so much silly whining in one thread for people with epic snow cover after a 5-6 week period that may not be repeated in their lifetimes. Expectations of NEVER having a pattern relaxation are fraught with fail. Let's sit back.....let what happens for the next 1-2 weeks happen and reload back for a furiously epic ending 2/15-20 through 3/15. I drove to the Gaaahden last night to watch the Celtics lose a close game that BOTH teams played quite well in. Driving back, we dropped off one of our daughter's and on narrow streets the snowbanks really don't allow any safety in vision. Even walking on main streets you have to be very cautious entering intersections. I'm sure I've never seen this much for so long on the ground here. Losing some before a reload will not be a disaster to my way of thinking. It's an epic winter and not one of you can show me one where the pattern didn't break for a time.

We went through this last night when Ray almost went rafters. It's gonna happen (rain that is). It's inevitable. Hopefully we get back some of our losses, next week. Agreed the snowpack around here has been incredible.

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Been out of the loop the last day and a half... Rejoining this thing, interesting trend of non-commitment to anything worthy of note out of this system today/tonight by most of the models. This may not be true up in central and NE New England, but for SNE, this is probably disappointing to the those that are irresponsibly wishing on additional snow over this glacier.

anyway, we certainly are initially cold enough, but my own thoughts regarding how this system would play out from the other day - I think I was talking to Kevin? - do not appear correct. Could we be surprised, eh, yea - but, that's a nowcaster as far that goes. Just have to monitor rad and obs reports.

The problem with this system is that the mid level circulation fields /package of vorticity are progged to move NW of the llv thermal gradient, riding over top what is (pending sounding depths) a shallowing cold BL. With virtually no PP N sufficient for keeping ageostrophic vectors going, it will be interesting to see if the llv circulation can actually win against the viscosity of the cold that is in situ and bully across the breadth of the area like that. Those runs of the NAM from 2 days ago placed the vorticity maximum under the latitude of CT/RI, and the profile of the event was different then. The guidance certainly up-ended that idea since... To put it in simple terms, if that bundle of vorticity moved SE of the area, we would DEFINITELY stay snow - even without a high up N that would have been true. If it verifies NW like this, I don't see how snow could predominate this later on. The flip to ZR and plain cold rain is almost a certainty.

It is also interesting that every Global model I have seen this morning is opting to no storm at all this week. What the heck happened while I was gone! Tuesday, whiff. Thursday, whiff. This is consistent amid all the guidance, too. CMC, ...even the typically ramped up UKMET is gonner (actually, I forgot about Thur on the UKMET).

Looking over the nightly teleconnectors from both agencies, I don't know - maybe the big storm ideas weren't really there all along? Hard to say. Over the next week the NAO does fall from +1SD to nearly neutral before the members then mop-end at CPC. The PNA has an even subtler rise, while remaining negative. These variations are small though.

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