DavisStraight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 edit: and whats up with the WWA in sw CT? Any chance of freezing rain and I think they have to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Eh, we're due to strike out. We've been hitting double's, triple's, and HR's all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 trof axis further west on 00z nam for tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Eh, we're due to strike out. We've been hitting double's, triple's, and HR's all season. I'm sticking with my gut based upon the synoptic setup until the last minute in the future.....that is twice now that I have blinked because of model consensus within 2 days of the event, only to have my fist impression end up vindicated.....the quick hitting bomb last week where I thought 12-18, but backed out at the last moment and we ended up getting it, now this.....thought it was a rainstorm all along, but shame on me for thinking models have a clue inside of 2 days. :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Any chance of freezing rain and I think they have to Unless precip gets in here in the next couple of hours, they can go ahead and cancel the WWA.....no shot of frozen down here with this system tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GYX update sticks with the Winter Storm Watch. Still calling for 6" snow and IP/ZR for most areas including coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm sticking with my based upon the synoptic setup until the last minute in the future.....that is twice now that I have blinked now becasue model consensus within 2 days, only to have my fist imression end up vindicated.....the quick hitting bomb last week where I thought 12-18, but backed out at the last moment and we ended up getting it, now this.....thought it was a rainstorm all along, but shame on me for thinking models have a clue inside of 2 days. :arrowhead: This set up was pretty ugly for me right in the beginning. No blocking, retreating high, Gulf wave...all recipes for disaster. Sometimes these pull through, but I never felt good about this one. I thought maybe you guys could pull something off, as it pulled away (and this was very possible), but not looking all that hot now. It's all good though..it's gonna happen. Better this, than 12 hrs of 50+ and 2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This set up was pretty ugly for me right in the beginning. No blocking, retreating high, Gulf wave...all recipes for disaster. Sometimes these pull through, but I never felt good about this one. I thought maybe you guys could pull something off, as it pulled away (and this was very possible), but not looking all that hot now. It's all good though..it's gonna happen. Better this, than 12 hrs of 50+ and 2" of rain. You think I break 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Seeing that there is no control on what transpires. I'll take it. Maybe see a gradual temperature to normal will have positive results eleviating roofs and roadside no seeing at corners. Still loads of time for records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 trof axis further west on 00z nam for tue You can't shovel a trough axis....I don't see much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You think I break 40 It may be tough with that track, but if you mix out near dawn on wsw winds...you might. I'd say 38 or 39 for now. Sunday you may break 40, or have that as the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It may be tough with that track, but if you mix out near dawn on wsw winds...you might. I'd say 38 or 39 for now. Sunday you may break 40, or have that as the high. I was thinking that.....Sunday is a given....hopefully the dews drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You can't shovel a trough axis....I don't see much of anything. Sucky pattern for awhile. Like you said we both got roped into the model nonsense for a day or two despite first impressions that Saturday was wet. Goes to show what the ensemble means are worth too...... Tuesday is a miss or maybe eastern hit is the first thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Sucky pattern for awhile. Like you said we both got roped into the model nonsense for a day or two despite first impressions that Saturday was wet. Goes to show what the ensemble means are worth too...... Tuesday is a miss or maybe eastern hit is the first thought Yea, I think the pattern blows and people don't like to hear it, but it does. Rain-whiff-more precip type issues likely late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We're gonna lose at LEAST a half foot imo....it's gonna be above freezing for more than 24 hrs over a good portion of the region....with high dews most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We're gonna lose at LEAST a half foot imo....it's gonna be above freezing for more than 24 hrs over a good portion of the region....with high dews most of the time. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We're gonna lose at LEAST a half foot imo....it's gonna be above freezing for more than 24 hrs over a good portion of the region....with high dews most of the time. yup this thing has trended about as bad as it could over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 any other model take this LP thru albany to portland or just the 0z nam . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yea, I think the pattern blows and people don't like to hear it, but it does. Rain-whiff-more precip type issues likely late next week. For more than a month every event trended whiter. Now they trend wetter or whiffier. Tue has potential but it doesn't change the fact that the long anticipated and predicted change has happened. Is it long term or just the normal thaw? A lot of pros thought winter would change in January as the pattern lifted north. It may have been delayed but not denied. We shall see. This thing is a torch Saturday plain and simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 BTV update MODEL TRENDS WITH NEXT EVENT...00Z RUN OF NAM80 REFLECTING 12Z HIRES ECMWF AS WELL AS NAM12 WITH AN INSIDE RUNNER ACRS SNE TO KBOS- KPSM. THIS WUD INTRODUCE MORE QPF FURTHER N AND INTRODUCE MIXED INTO SRN/CENT VT. TOO EARLY TO SEE OTHER TRENDS AND MAKE ANY WHOLESCALE CHANGES...LET MIDSHIFT DIGEST AND USE THEIR CONTINUITY FROM LAST NIGHT TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 http://www.weatherof...4_metric_e.html Curious to see how warm it has been in parts of Canada. Even northern Alberta was 9C yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Culprit right here....No -NAO, no snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 And GYX update ... AWAITING 00Z MODEL SUITE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT`S SYSTEM. SO FAR...THE NAM HAS COME IN VERY WARM. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AS THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO BE DEEP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THERE STILL IS A LIKELYHOOD OF MIXED PCPN CUTTING DOWN THE SNOW TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE AS JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ARRIVES ALOFT DESPITE INITIALLY LOW WET BULB TEMP READINGS. SNOW TOTALS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL AWAIT THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FOLLOW CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CLOSELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 you know it's bad when even the NAM clownmap gives you nothing. Happy I went with 1-3" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Here comes the GFS torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 That was the 1/14/08 event. That was a fun one...started really wet and transitioned drier as it went on. He had a coating of snow and was reporting roof collapses. Lol...what about the event where that walt kept saying to not give up on...then you went to bed and awoke to like 6 inches of new snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 a couple snow events later in the week, all will be forgotten and Toot will be back on the rampage Spotted some Toot talk, thought I'd cough up some dope. Snakebit, Still snakebit. I broke my sled. Some rampage. My luxurious and powerful 4-stroke spaceship full o' hurtling snowmobile tour bus is laid low tonight. She'll be back on Tues. Tout suite. Until then it's just me and the two Polari. Always keep at least 2 backup sleds. Now what's this chatter about snow for NENNE? Is it at all connected with the sudden lamentations and plaints of the drywall stained roof-rakers, gutter snipes and slush commandoes who live in New England's bottom-most states? I think I'll check and see. Vim Toot! AHAMAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 lol GFS. May torch BTV and BML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 lol GFS. May torch BTV and BML. These damned American models keep finding new and entertaining ways to fook us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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