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February 5-6 Storm Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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12z NAM actually looks more in line with the Euro/GGEM/Ukie now.

Don't know what the euro showed but it's very similar to the other two. Mid levels start/stay further west into TN and Ohio and the rest is a mess.

A day or so of false hope from inferior ncep models.

It's bad when the rgem is kicking butt. Remember the other day it had the mix line near orh and Worcester by 12z for 36hrs while our models were too cold.

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Yeah it swings a little deformation/ccb area overhead, but it would be nice for it to be a little more south for that.

There's freezing rain issues early on in the event with the first batch too at like 33 hours. I think I'm sticking to my forecast in the hills here of wintry mix transitioning to all snow and probably a quick 2-5 before ending.

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There's freezing rain issues early on in the event with the first batch too at like 33 hours. I think I'm sticking to my forecast in the hills here of wintry mix transitioning to all snow and probably a quick 2-5 before ending.

Yeah I would think that's a good start for your guys that you have, especially north of you. Sometimes these dynamic flips love to occur a little earlier than we think over the hills up that way. It sort of has that look up that way..even on the NAM.

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For the mets..how can you guys make a forecast for this? You've got the obviously too amped up west RGEM/Ukie..and then the SE GFS/Ensembles/Sref's/ and the Euro and mesos SE of ACK...

I'm not too sold on the se model camp. Probably something like the euro imo, and the NAM is similar. Just my guess for now.

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Yeah I would think that's a good start for your guys that you have, especially north of you. Sometimes these dynamic flips love to occur a little earlier than we think over the hills up that way. It sort of has that look up that way..even on the NAM.

Yeah I think N ORH county into Monads will be the best spot for my particular area...probably a classic Gardner storm....where they can get 6-7" of paste and I see half that or less with longer ptype issues. I think the ZR should be watched in this area if the MLs warm for a bit.

With a vortmax that is pretty darn potent and the associated height falls, I do think a flip to heavy wet snow is likely in the region...how much is the tougher question.

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Yeah I think N ORH county into Monads will be the best spot for my particular area...probably a classic Gardner storm....where they can get 6-7" of paste and I see half that or less with longer ptype issues. I think the ZR should be watched in this area if the MLs warm for a bit.

With a vortmax that is pretty darn potent and the associated height falls, I do think a flip to heavy wet snow is likely in the region...how much is the tougher question.

Oh you weren't including hills of CT in zr and snow

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