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February 5-6 Storm Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah...CON gets a little ugly for a time with +2C at H8 for 6z Sunday. It'd be nice to see the developing H85/H7 lows form even 10-15 more miles south. The H5 vortmax drives right through NH now on the 18z NAM so it'd be nice if the west trend with that comes to a stop. I'm 50/50 right now on whether we stay mostly snow or if we waste a lot of QPF on ZR before ending as a couple inches of SN.

For once, my long/lat seem to be about right for good snows... Luckily, I went with the Euro in last night's forecast and not "continuity".

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Just not any cold around until mid week.....Tues event tracks just outside the BM and it's still warm at the surface. :lol:

Use the other thread to talk about Tuesday's event...this one is getting confusing with people trying to talk about tomorrow night. Lets stick to Feb 5-6 in this thread.

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Yeah...CON gets a little ugly for a time with +2C at H8 for 6z Sunday. It'd be nice to see the developing H85/H7 lows form even 10-15 more miles south. The H5 vortmax drives right through NH now on the 18z NAM so it'd be nice if the west trend with that comes to a stop. I'm 50/50 right now on whether we stay mostly snow or if we waste a lot of QPF on ZR before ending as a couple inches of SN.

0Z should tell the tale as to whether the warm trend is over. Either way, we other add a nice few inches or we get a crust with a couple on top. You guys might get nailed while i'm overseas for the first part of next week. If this plays out...we could have another 20 on the ground within a week. Lol. What's your depth? 30 as of this morn here.

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It was a pretty dry FROPA here...almost no rain with it. We had 0.03" of rain officially on the 2nd of January.

Yeah I seem to remember that now... it definitely rained at the ski area for several hours but the slug of moisture probably went north of SNE.

The mountain looked like crap that first week of January; amazing how well its turned around since then.

Anyway, amazing that we haven't gone above freezing since then :thumbsup:

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Will or someone posted earlier today it was only warm in far SE New England

96-102hr thumps pretty good. The "warm" 2m temps are at 102hr and 102-108hr has some rinky dink leftover inverted trough QPF hanging back over CNE/NNE. I'm guessing the sfc stays cool for the interior during the heavy precip.
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takes LP over the BM (10 miles N of bm) and 850's are cold (below 0c 850 from u over to attelboro to S shore at 0z sun peak )

no really ? are meso less useful here.....where about 30 hrs out....are they any good at placing Low level cold?

There isn't really alot of llc....it's stale.

I wouldn't put much stock in those.

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takes LP over the BM (10 miles N of bm) and 850's are cold (below 0c 850 from u over to attelboro to S shore at 0z sun peak )

no really ? are meso less useful here.....where about 30 hrs out....are they any good at placing Low level cold?

I'd wait until the 00z runs tonight before focusing on them. The SUNY and NCEP WRFs seem to be best when you get about 24hrs from the event. Otherwise they seem to often blow the synoptic pattern making the mesoscale analysis useless. I'll be anxious to see what our AmericanWx WRF shows tonight too.
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SE coastal CT has 18-20 on the ground glacier like.

i am always amazed at how fast temp near 50 with higher dews and fog can eat snow pack like a fat man at a buffet. yes they will have some left for sure by end of next week. but if they get to 50 with high dews and fog it's gonna be a disastah for a while tommorrow evening/ nite.

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I'd wait until the 00z runs tonight before focusing on them. The SUNY and NCEP WRFs seem to be best when you get about 24hrs from the event. Otherwise they seem to often blow the synoptic pattern making the mesoscale analysis useless. I'll be anxious to see what our AmericanWx WRF shows tonight too.

SUNY is almost always too cold and suppressed until inside of 24h...then its good.

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There isn't really alot of llc....it's stale.

I wouldn't put much stock in those.

i mean i equate a stale LLC with higher dewpoints. not that i'm right lol

but with dp's in the upper single digits currently for a wide swatch N and W of boston we are still lookin like we got some potential IMO.

I think a big key for icing might be how low we can get temps overnite and then get a seal of thicker cloud cover prior to sunrise.

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i am always amazed at how fast temp near 50 with higher dews and fog can eat snow pack like a fat man at a buffet. yes they will have some left for sure by end of next week. but if they get to 50 with high dews and fog it's gonna be a disastah for a while tommorrow evening/ nite.

The low is tracking over the outer cape..they won't get above 40 down there

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The low is tracking over the outer cape..they won't get above 40 down there

yes they will......near the coast it's a lock....the Low is moving ENE so it will be very close to Se coastal ct. they will have S winds as well.

COASTAL FRONT APPEARS IT WILL PENETRATE ERN LI AND CT BY

AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY BUMPING TEMPS UP TO NEAR 50 WITH DENSE

FOG. TEMPS IN THE 30S N AND W OF THE BOUNDARY.

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