DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I know 2m tems runs warm, but it has the 32* isotherm near Dendrite during the peak of the event....yea, that screams snow. lol Should we expect green grass and hippies with long hair playing frisbee in parks by the end of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Should we expect green grass and hippies with long hair playing frisbee in parks by the end of next week? How about refuting what I just said as opposed to avoiding any logic like the plauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Should we expect green grass and hippies with long hair playing frisbee in parks by the end of next week? in SE coastal ct, s. ri , and CC yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah...CON gets a little ugly for a time with +2C at H8 for 6z Sunday. It'd be nice to see the developing H85/H7 lows form even 10-15 more miles south. The H5 vortmax drives right through NH now on the 18z NAM so it'd be nice if the west trend with that comes to a stop. I'm 50/50 right now on whether we stay mostly snow or if we waste a lot of QPF on ZR before ending as a couple inches of SN. For once, my long/lat seem to be about right for good snows... Luckily, I went with the Euro in last night's forecast and not "continuity". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just not any cold around until mid week.....Tues event tracks just outside the BM and it's still warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How about refuting what I just said as opposed to avoiding any logic like the plauge. Will or someone posted earlier today it was only warm in far SE New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How about refuting what I just said as opposed to avoiding any logic like the plauge. Hopefully you get the blue snow bomb you've been after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just not any cold around until mid week.....Tues event tracks just outside the BM and it's still warm at the surface. Use the other thread to talk about Tuesday's event...this one is getting confusing with people trying to talk about tomorrow night. Lets stick to Feb 5-6 in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Hopefully you get the blue snow bomb you've been after. Maybe it is snow.....but I;d like someone like Will to tell me why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here is the thread we were discussing Tuesday in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Maybe it is snow.....but I;d like someone like Will to tell me why. It's hard to tell without soundings. Even with AccuWx all I get is surface and 850 temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah...CON gets a little ugly for a time with +2C at H8 for 6z Sunday. It'd be nice to see the developing H85/H7 lows form even 10-15 more miles south. The H5 vortmax drives right through NH now on the 18z NAM so it'd be nice if the west trend with that comes to a stop. I'm 50/50 right now on whether we stay mostly snow or if we waste a lot of QPF on ZR before ending as a couple inches of SN. 0Z should tell the tale as to whether the warm trend is over. Either way, we other add a nice few inches or we get a crust with a couple on top. You guys might get nailed while i'm overseas for the first part of next week. If this plays out...we could have another 20 on the ground within a week. Lol. What's your depth? 30 as of this morn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How's the MM5 look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It was a pretty dry FROPA here...almost no rain with it. We had 0.03" of rain officially on the 2nd of January. Yeah I seem to remember that now... it definitely rained at the ski area for several hours but the slug of moisture probably went north of SNE. The mountain looked like crap that first week of January; amazing how well its turned around since then. Anyway, amazing that we haven't gone above freezing since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How's the MM5 look? takes LP over the BM (10 miles N of bm) and 850's are cold (below 0c 850 from u over to attelboro to S shore at 0z sun peak ) no really ? are meso less useful here.....where about 30 hrs out....are they any good at placing Low level cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Will or someone posted earlier today it was only warm in far SE New England 96-102hr thumps pretty good. The "warm" 2m temps are at 102hr and 102-108hr has some rinky dink leftover inverted trough QPF hanging back over CNE/NNE. I'm guessing the sfc stays cool for the interior during the heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 takes LP over the BM (10 miles N of bm) and 850's are cold (below 0c 850 from u over to attelboro to S shore at 0z sun peak ) no really ? are meso less useful here.....where about 30 hrs out....are they any good at placing Low level cold? Maybe we can lock that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 One local station's opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 One local station's opinion. But not necessarily the other 2's opinion. They are thinking mix gets further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 if that map doesn't bust as too low here, i'll buy u all a bunch of honey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 But not necessarily the other 2's opinion. They are thinking mix gets further inland. Hadn't heard, but not surprising. WCSH doesn't have a map online and WMTW shows 3-6 inland, 1-3 at coast. I like WGME's much better! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 takes LP over the BM (10 miles N of bm) and 850's are cold (below 0c 850 from u over to attelboro to S shore at 0z sun peak ) no really ? are meso less useful here.....where about 30 hrs out....are they any good at placing Low level cold? There isn't really alot of llc....it's stale. I wouldn't put much stock in those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hadn't heard, but not surprising. WCSH doesn't have a map online and WMTW shows 3-6 inland, 1-3 at coast. I like WGME's much better! lol I like it too. Let's hope it verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 takes LP over the BM (10 miles N of bm) and 850's are cold (below 0c 850 from u over to attelboro to S shore at 0z sun peak ) no really ? are meso less useful here.....where about 30 hrs out....are they any good at placing Low level cold? I'd wait until the 00z runs tonight before focusing on them. The SUNY and NCEP WRFs seem to be best when you get about 24hrs from the event. Otherwise they seem to often blow the synoptic pattern making the mesoscale analysis useless. I'll be anxious to see what our AmericanWx WRF shows tonight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 in SE coastal ct, s. ri , and CC yes. SE coastal CT has 18-20 on the ground glacier like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 SE coastal CT has 18-20 on the ground glacier like. i am always amazed at how fast temp near 50 with higher dews and fog can eat snow pack like a fat man at a buffet. yes they will have some left for sure by end of next week. but if they get to 50 with high dews and fog it's gonna be a disastah for a while tommorrow evening/ nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'd wait until the 00z runs tonight before focusing on them. The SUNY and NCEP WRFs seem to be best when you get about 24hrs from the event. Otherwise they seem to often blow the synoptic pattern making the mesoscale analysis useless. I'll be anxious to see what our AmericanWx WRF shows tonight too. SUNY is almost always too cold and suppressed until inside of 24h...then its good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 There isn't really alot of llc....it's stale. I wouldn't put much stock in those. i mean i equate a stale LLC with higher dewpoints. not that i'm right lol but with dp's in the upper single digits currently for a wide swatch N and W of boston we are still lookin like we got some potential IMO. I think a big key for icing might be how low we can get temps overnite and then get a seal of thicker cloud cover prior to sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i am always amazed at how fast temp near 50 with higher dews and fog can eat snow pack like a fat man at a buffet. yes they will have some left for sure by end of next week. but if they get to 50 with high dews and fog it's gonna be a disastah for a while tommorrow evening/ nite. The low is tracking over the outer cape..they won't get above 40 down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The low is tracking over the outer cape..they won't get above 40 down there yes they will......near the coast it's a lock....the Low is moving ENE so it will be very close to Se coastal ct. they will have S winds as well. COASTAL FRONT APPEARS IT WILL PENETRATE ERN LI AND CT BY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY BUMPING TEMPS UP TO NEAR 50 WITH DENSE FOG. TEMPS IN THE 30S N AND W OF THE BOUNDARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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