powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Last nights Euro had a monster coastal storm for late next week. Take a look. Ahhh thanks man. I hadn't looked at last night's EURO. Quickly glanced at some 12z progs and didn't see much. With that said, the 12z EURO looks good for SNE late next week... good to at least see a storm somewhere in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That statement applies to all of SNE except for SE Mass and coastal RI...90% of SNE has 2 feet plus OTG Most areas on a line near PYM-TAN on north have 2' or more. That's just nuts. I know Bob has 18", but he probably only needs to go 5 miles nw to hit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Some people are still expecting snow out of this. MOS is a bit ugly though...snow cats for LCI are 1 on the 18z MAV and 2 on the 12z MET. That's a bit of a red flag to me even though the ptype probs are >60% for snow at the warmest point of the storm (6z Sun). The wetbulbs are pretty cold though so we should manage all frozen. Hopefully it's an isothermal 0C aloft transitioning to better snow growth as the midlevel centers develop and pass S of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Most areas on a line near PYM-TAN on north have 2' or more. That's just nuts. I know Bob has 18", but he probably only needs to go 5 miles nw to hit that. It seems like a "numbers guy", but I understand that sunbjectivity plays a role; I just like to incorporate everything...including the raw stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well, glad everyone is a awake now. lol Back to the epic winter at hand. you guys crack me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Most areas on a line near PYM-TAN on north have 2' or more. That's just nuts. I know Bob has 18", but he probably only needs to go 5 miles nw to hit that. Yeah ~18". I'm not sure if there's a sno hole on the other side of town or not but the snowbanks get larger on the highway as you come down to my area vs the BOX area. Once you get up to Wrentham/Foxboro though it's night and day. HUGE banks up there. 30"+ on the ground there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I barely stay snow...lol. 36hr is the warmest it gets and it's damn close. Con appears to change over for a bit on the Nam, according to Jeff but LCI doesn't so that would mean you and I probably don't. I think it will trend slightly colder going into the event. Big trend to warmer and wester and now the slight tick back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Eh, so you take a minor hit. We try again next week. We really need to take a step back and realize we are in unprecedented territory, so it's surprise we may not be able to sustain such a ridiculous snowpack. However, we get a second chance next week. Still may be a flip to snow for you before dawn Sunday. every big snowpack build involves rain at some point.....at least it does up here. depths are built because an active pattern....not really because of wall to wall cold. i said it after that last blizzard for you guys..... that you had acquired enough depth to take a hit and still make a run. thats a comfortable place to be. i dont have that luxury up here this year. one torch and im done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Some people are still expecting snow out of this. MOS is a bit ugly though...snow cats for LCI are 1 on the 18z MAV and 2 on the 12z MET. That's a bit of a red flag to me even though the ptype probs are >60% for snow at the warmest point of the storm (6z Sun). The wetbulbs are pretty cold though so we should manage all frozen. Hopefully it's an isothermal 0C aloft transitioning to better snow growth as the midlevel centers develop and pass S of here. Should I not believe my NWS forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Hell of a winter when the first widespread rainer is in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 You're about the numbers, and I understand that. I guess I'm just trying to put into perspective how incredible this winter has been so far. You have the second highest depth in recorded history for your area, with the a snowpack that likely has never been so deep and lasted so long (I don't have the facts so you can check). This statement can apply for most of ern mass. Even in se mass...trade off a few inches of depth, to weeks of longevity. This is what I meant by unprecedented. Well Certainly not here. There have about 10 times in history where 12" were on the ground for 40+ Consecutive days, and about 6 times of 20" on the ground for 20+ Consecutive days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well Certainly not here. There have about 10 times in history where 12" were on the ground for 40+ Consecutive days, and about 6 times of 20" on the ground for 20+ Consecutive days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Hell of a winter when the first widespread rainer is in February. Didn't it rain in early January? Right around the 2nd? Maybe it missed you guys but it rained up here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Didn't it rain in early January? Right around the 2nd? My memory is garbage. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well Certainly not here. There have about 10 times in history where 12" were on the ground for 40+ Consecutive days, and about 6 times of 20" on the ground for 20+ Consecutive days. Well N Cumberland RI is just an enigma I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Didn't it rain in early January? Right around the 2nd? Maybe it missed you guys but it rained up here, lol. New Yrs Day was 50ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Some people are still expecting snow out of this. MOS is a bit ugly though...snow cats for LCI are 1 on the 18z MAV and 2 on the 12z MET. That's a bit of a red flag to me even though the ptype probs are >60% for snow at the warmest point of the storm (6z Sun). The wetbulbs are pretty cold though so we should manage all frozen. Hopefully it's an isothermal 0C aloft transitioning to better snow growth as the midlevel centers develop and pass S of here. All local mets except one have 1-3" going south of ORH, and one has 2-4. NWS still has me for 1-3". Kevin said a ct met had 2-5 for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well Certainly not here. There have about 10 times in history where 12" were on the ground for 40+ Consecutive days, and about 6 times of 20" on the ground for 20+ Consecutive days. I'm sure if you look at each individual place in SNE, yes, there may have been better winters in the stats... however, when you look at SNE as a whole this winter probably takes the cake. All three SNE states have been buried now for almost a month straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 My memory is garbage. Maybe. Haha we forget what we want to forget. Early January rain is definitely worth forgetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 All local mets except one have 1-3" going south of ORH, and one has 2-4. NWS still has me for 1-3". Kevin said a ct met had 2-5 for him. you and skimrg took his comments out of text. he was saying ....literally that people are still expecting snow out of this ...primarily in CNE. so all the rain talk is making him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It seems like a "numbers guy", but I understand that sunbjectivity plays a role; I just like to incorporate everything...including the raw stats. So am I. There's a variety of stats here, but to be second ever in depth is remarkable. I don't mean unprecedented as being a record and never going to happen again, but more as an extremely rare occurrence. Except in N Cumberland RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah ~18". I'm not sure if there's a sno hole on the other side of town or not but the snowbanks get larger on the highway as you come down to my area vs the BOX area. Once you get up to Wrentham/Foxboro though it's night and day. HUGE banks up there. 30"+ on the ground there. That area may be a secret "sweet spot" in ern mass right now. Check out the pics in the snowpack thread from Sherborn MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 New Yrs Day was 50ish Alright, yeah. Things were actually looking pretty bleak after that warm-up/rain I thought and that was only a month ago. Funny how quickly things can change and I have a feeling this winter will be remembered for this past month that we just went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Con appears to change over for a bit on the Nam, according to Jeff but LCI doesn't so that would mean you and I probably don't. I think it will trend slightly colder going into the event. Big trend to warmer and wester and now the slight tick back. Yeah...CON gets a little ugly for a time with +2C at H8 for 6z Sunday. It'd be nice to see the developing H85/H7 lows form even 10-15 more miles south. The H5 vortmax drives right through NH now on the 18z NAM so it'd be nice if the west trend with that comes to a stop. I'm 50/50 right now on whether we stay mostly snow or if we waste a lot of QPF on ZR before ending as a couple inches of SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 you and skimrg took his comments out of text. he was saying ....literally that people are still expecting snow out of this ...primarily in CNE. so all the rain talk is making him ha..you're right. My bad. Good luck to NH and Maine peeps! I hope I can get an inch or 2 or 3 of slop at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm just going by the stats I have after hours and hours and hours of compiling looking at snow depths in the area from 1892 onwards. I've give a detailed run of it in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Haha we forget what we want to forget. Early January rain is definitely worth forgetting. It was a pretty dry FROPA here...almost no rain with it. We had 0.03" of rain officially on the 2nd of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The EURO is a torch at the surface on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The EURO is a torch at the surface on Tuesday. Wasnt it like 2C at the start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wasnt it like 2C at the start? I know 2m temps runs warm, but it has the 32* isotherm near Dendrite during the peak of the event....yea, that screams snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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