Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm going with 5-10" snow/sleet here.. Talked with my parents at the house in ME 6 to 8 in is what they are looking at starting tomorrow night They also have around 36in on on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Talked with my parents at the house in ME 6 to 8 in is what they are looking at starting tomorrow night They also have around 36in on on the ground They are over in Bridgeton right? I am getting close to that snowpack total, Never got my snow stake out this year, They should see all of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 regarding small track shifts and such....would a deeper more amped storm be further NW......? but also have a nicer deform band for CNE? probably over S/C NH and VT yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS= YUCK....EDIT: It actually hammers SNH at 42... Heavy heavy wet snow bomb FYI..... The 12z NMM and ARW are really cold and juicy for this event and if they verified they would give N MA and SNH around 8-10 inches of heavy wet snow... take a look... how have these models been in past storms with temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS torches up past dendrite lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 They are over in Bridgeton right? I am getting close to that snowpack total, Never got my snow stake out this year, They should see all of that Jeff, Did you look at soundings? I looked at 12Z for CON and we stay below freezing barely at all levels except 32.1 at the surface. But I don't know how to get to 18Z. Same is true for LCI and LEW. Have you looked at any other soundings? I will be driving at 5am from here to Bos on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Jeff, Did you look at soundings? I looked at 12Z for CON and we stay below freezing barely at all levels except 32.1 at the surface. But I don't know how to get to 18Z. Same is true for LCI and LEW. Have you looked at any other soundings? I will be driving at 5am from here to Bos on Sunday morning. Mark, I looked at 12z, I will go take a look at the nam 18z one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Should be a skate-able flash freeze, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On the 18z Nam, 850's here never get above -1.3 and actually trends colder -4.5 as the storm gets going here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On the 18z Nam, 850's here never get above -1.3 and actually trends colder -4.5 as the storm gets going here Do you have a link? the one I have can refresh for different cities but seems to only give 12z. Also the GFS link if you have it and its not too much trouble? I'll look and tell you what I see. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 CON starts as snow flips to frzrain, rain breifly then back to snow on the soundings on the 18z NAM, LCI looks to stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Do you have a link? the one I have can refresh for different cities but seems to only give 12z. Also the GFS link if you have it and its not too much trouble? I'll look and tell you what I see. thx I use this one http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 yeah i guess the big issue is whether it's 33-34F and rain or 31-32F and ice. i agree with will that areas north of the pike need to be on the lookout. south of there it's a tougher call. without a feed of fresh dry air into the low levels, it kind of has the -SN to -ZR to RN look to me for most regions south of the pike and west of 95. I'm big on past history also knowledge of local climate/microclimate.. I won't be shocked if the hills stay 31 or so..and won't be shocked if it's 33 either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm big on past history also knowledge of local climate/microclimate.. I won't be shocked if the hills stay 31 or so..and won't be shocked if it's 33 either Give me 32.1 to keep the trees/wires free and let it freeze as it hits the snow. Or, better yet, give me some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Give me 32.1 to keep the trees/wires free and let it freeze as it hits the snow. Or, better yet, give me some snow. If I can't have snow..give me an icestorm. Sunday looks like a torch into the mid 30's so the more ice on top the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ryan's boss has 2-4 locally 5 all of Northern CT and western Ct on north...not sure what that is based on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The exact temp at this time isn't so important. We've seen before when it can zr at 34 and not accrete much at 30. Roof collapse in Stoneham, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ryan's boss has 2-4 locally 5 all of Northern CT and western Ct on north...not sure what that is based on. Wow even mets for ORH north who had 4-8 have mainly backed off to 2-4 for up here. 2-5 for Northern CT??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ryan's boss has 2-4 locally 5 all of Northern CT and western Ct on north...not sure what that is based on. 12z American models rip and read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Temp has gone up 40 degrees at my house since 5am! -4 to 36. F'n amazing when you think about it. i mentioned this last night southerly winds are blowing like a banshee up here, still are i might get close to 30 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS torches up past dendrite lol. I barely stay snow...lol.36hr is the warmest it gets and it's damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Skiing shawnee right now! Run two great conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BTV has a map out 0.1 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 They are over in Bridgeton right? I am getting close to that snowpack total, Never got my snow stake out this year, They should see all of that Id say that 36 is accurate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z American models rip and read Neither one of those supports his forecast. He must be using some of the mesos. They don't do maps online..but here's his blog It looks like a mix of sleet, snow and rain will develop across the state midday and create slippery travel by the afternoon As time wears on, I expect the mix to change to snow and end after midnight. Accumulations will range from about 1-inch in southeastern Connecticut to as much as 5 inches in the central and northwestern hills of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm big on past history also knowledge of local climate/microclimate.. I won't be shocked if the hills stay 31 or so..and won't be shocked if it's 33 either Very little difference either way. You soak it up, bulletproof it, and hopefully add on next week. Nothing to be upset about. We do live near 42N you know..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Very little difference either way. You soak it up, bulletproof it, and hopefully add on next week. Nothing to be upset about. We do live near 42N you know..lol. I'm going to be hard pressed to break even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 They are over in Bridgton right? I am getting close to that snowpack total, Never got my snow stake out this year, They should see all of that yes. West Bridgton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS= YUCK....EDIT: It actually hammers SNH at 42... Heavy heavy wet snow bomb FYI..... The 12z NMM and ARW are really cold and juicy for this event and if they verified they would give N MA and SNH around 8-10 inches of heavy wet snow... take a look... how have these models been in past storms with temps? Toss them...this is a rainer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm going to be hard pressed to break even. Eh, so you take a minor hit. We try again next week. We really need to take a step back and realize we are in unprecedented territory, so it's surprise we may not be able to sustain such a ridiculous snowpack. However, we get a second chance next week. Still may be a flip to snow for you before dawn Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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