ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't know if you saw my post from earlier today..but there was a storm similiar to this 5 or 6 winters ago and Drag came on in the morning and issued ice storm warnings from about the pike south. it had looked like snow and then warmed enough for ice..I think you guys may have had at least half snow. This reminds me of that. I just don't remember the date or exact yr. We had quite an icestorm in town above 800 feet. i was at my other house at 650 feet and had some ice but as bad as a few 100 feet higher. I'm not sure what event it was...might have been this one from early Jan 2005. I remember icing to the south of here that even made it to here eventually but we had snow for several hours first. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2005/us0108.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm not sure what event it was...might have been this one from early Jan 2005. I remember icing to the south of here that even made it to here eventually but we had snow for several hours first. http://www.meteo.psu...2005/us0108.php Yes that was the one..it was the year I moved to this house. Is that a decent analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes that was the one..it was the year I moved to this house. Is that a decent analog? it's not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM may try to make Tuesday's trough negative tilt with time. I think this is going to be the event of the week. Forget tomorrow and forget Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes that was the one..it was the year I moved to this house. Is that a decent analog? I wondered if this was it when you said that. Check it out. http://www.erh.noaa....ent2005_01_.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...COULD SEE A SWITCH BACK TO LIGHT SNOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH OF ROUTE 2...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. NORTH OF ROUTE 2 /WHERE ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED/...ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES I wouldn't be shocked if you saw 1-2'' before the changeover and then another 1-3'' once it changes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 it's not bad. It looked like an ok one to me..It was the same thing too. I think it was my first or 2nd year at Eastern..and the talk the whole time leading up was snow..and that morning when i got up Drag had switched to ice . Not saying that will happen..but keeping it back of my mind..esp with so much snow cover in the northeast..There was snow on the ground before that event though not nearly as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wondered if this was it when you said that. Check it out. http://www.erh.noaa....ent2005_01_.pdf Wow..that is exactly what I just posted about lol..That is an awesome find. It caused quite a bit of tree damage in town here above 800 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It looked like an ok one to me..It was the same thing too. I think it was my first or 2nd year at Eastern..and the talk the whole time leading up was snow..and that morning when i got up Drag had switched to ice . Not saying that will happen..but keeping it back of my mind..esp with so much snow cover in the northeast..There was snow on the ground before that event though not nearly as much there are definitely some similarities to the events. everything is unique but who knows. if this thing can get in here quick and you get a good temp. drop tonight and things cloud over at the right time tomorrow morning...maybe it's more ice than not. the flag against it for me is just how far north guidance is throwing the surface freezing line. i always adjust that S and SE in my mind to account for the models just not being able to handle surface temps well...but even adjusting SE some leaves a lot of SNE >32F. MOS does have Tds holding in the 20s at BDL tomorrow FWIW...maybe you wet-bulb to 31F or something for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 hey guys..not to pester with IMBY forecast...but could one of you guys fill me on the weather for Henniker, NH Pats Peak...for tomorrow...i'm headed there for a day of skiing, wondering the precip type and what time the precip starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 hey guys..not to pester with IMBY forecast...but could one of you guys fill me on the weather for Henniker, NH Pats Peak...for tomorrow...i'm headed there for a day of skiing, wondering the precip type and what time the precip starts HI there! I think the mixed precip or snow wont' start til late afternoon and won't get heavy until after dark...at least that's how I'm reading it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...COULD SEE A SWITCH BACK TO LIGHT SNOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH OF ROUTE 2...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. NORTH OF ROUTE 2 /WHERE ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED/...ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES Hmmm... I wonder 3 miles N or Rt 2 counts. I'm guessing mix here and all snow when it's cranking. Hoping for a net gain of 3"+ You could see the piles shrink a bit today. We hit 36 w/ full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BTV has a map out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 there are definitely some similarities to the events. everything is unique but who knows. if this thing can get in here quick and you get a good temp. drop tonight and things cloud over at the right time tomorrow morning...maybe it's more ice than not. the flag against it for me is just how far north guidance is throwing the surface freezing line. i always adjust that S and SE in my mind to account for the models just not being able to handle surface temps well...but even adjusting SE some leaves a lot of SNE >32F. MOS does have Tds holding in the 20s at BDL tomorrow FWIW...maybe you wet-bulb to 31F or something for a while. A concern for icing at least for areas closer to here is that even with a sfc low as far NW as the NAM (into SW CT)...its still holding onto marginal icing...so a little more conventional track could hold the low level cold in even more efficiently. Lack of qpf and marginal temps don't scream for a full ice storm, but it could get a little bit nasty for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HI there! I think the mixed precip or snow wont' start til late afternoon and won't get heavy until after dark...at least that's how I'm reading it now. Hi! great meeting you at the g2g...thanks for the weather update...guess i don't have to worry about the drive up, but the drive home will probably be messy, and rainy...wonder if we will see snow falling at the mtn? going with my sister and her two older kids (9, 11) it's their first time on skis! i can't wait to laugh at them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 there are definitely some similarities to the events. everything is unique but who knows. if this thing can get in here quick and you get a good temp. drop tonight and things cloud over at the right time tomorrow morning...maybe it's more ice than not. the flag against it for me is just how far north guidance is throwing the surface freezing line. i always adjust that S and SE in my mind to account for the models just not being able to handle surface temps well...but even adjusting SE some leaves a lot of SNE >32F. MOS does have Tds holding in the 20s at BDL tomorrow FWIW...maybe you wet-bulb to 31F or something for a while. Even though the antecedent airmass is not cold, the low TD's should help wetbulb the interior. That's going to be the key reason for any frozen imo...wetbulbing. I'm just not sure if he is far enough north to remain totally below 32, but it could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z NAM is the way to go, lol. Wow just got interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Map from BOX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This could be a gold mine for the ski areas this next 7 days. Setting themselves up for some sweet vacation skiing. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Even though the antecedent airmass is not cold, the low TD's should help wetbulb the interior. That's going to be the key reason for any frozen imo...wetbulbing. I'm just not sure if he is far enough north to remain totally below 32, but it could be close. yeah i guess the big issue is whether it's 33-34F and rain or 31-32F and ice. i agree with will that areas north of the pike need to be on the lookout. south of there it's a tougher call. without a feed of fresh dry air into the low levels, it kind of has the -SN to -ZR to RN look to me for most regions south of the pike and west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 A little OT but driving down 84 by Putnam and its amazing seeing all the trees glistening in the sun with the ice on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Map from BOX: Id take 2.6 and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BTV has a map out If the NAM or CMC or even EURO comes to fruition, the amounts for the NEK are much too low right now. I can see why they'd stay safe right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If the NAM or CMC or even EURO comes to fruition, the amounts for the NEK are much too low right now. I can see why they'd stay safe right now though. regarding small track shifts and such....would a deeper more amped storm be further NW......? but also have a nicer deform band for CNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If the NAM or CMC or even EURO comes to fruition, the amounts for the NEK are much too low right now. I can see why they'd stay safe right now though. 12z CMC/UKMET/EURO and the 15z ETA (big jump north from the 9z run), as well as the 18z NAM (big jump north from 12z) all say BTV needs to expand the watch another tier of counties northward and issue Advisories for the rest of VT. I find it very interesting that the meso-scale ETA and WRF all made a fairly significant jump in their latest runs to match up with the Canadian/UKMET/Euro. I wonder what the American models were *not* seeing 6 hours ago that they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BOX included us in the watch now, but I really don't know if it is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 A little OT but driving down 84 by Putnam and its amazing seeing all the trees glistening in the sun with the ice on them. There was a lot of rime ice this morning, the sun rose with the snow shimmering ice encrusted, gorgeous site. Took a walk through the woods walking on the snow down in SCT, pretty neat and quite the different perspective above all stumps, rocks and undergrowth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Suprised to see a WAA hoisted for me, especially since its a Saturday morning with very little if any winter weather expected. Noticed OKX mentions the coastal front should penetrate eastern li and se ct with temps topping out around 50, and fog, snowpack killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Id take 2.6 and run. oh yeah no doubt .. "best" case senerio is 1/8" glaze to rain to 1"-2" imby as well as yours lol. Ill be in shrewsbury this weekend too so I cant wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm going with 5-10" snow/sleet here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.