ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looking similar to the other day in some respects. Yeah I always hate forecasting these. You can get a nasty 30F mini ice storm above 800-1000 feet a lot of times in these that aren't well forecast. Other times its 32F and very marginal that turns to 33F light rain before ending. NAM has vortmax too far N for much snow at the end...gets a bit strung out at the end. But still should be watched closely for a flashover at the end...if it tracks a little more consolidated just underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM takes the low W of PVD and basically over BOS. On this run the mixing line could make it as far as Waterville/Loon. Wraparound cancel on this run.... wagons north. Get your roofs cleared now guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BTV issuing Winter Storm watches for southern CWA per its AFD. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&product=AFD&issuedby=BTV AS OF 312 PM EST FRIDAY...COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS BYLATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE SRN OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SRN COUNTIES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THERMAL PROFILES FAIRLY MILD AND COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...BUT WITH CONTINUED MODEL DISPARITY IN THERMAL PROFILES HAVE LEANED TOWARD AN ALL SNOW EVENT AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY... HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MODEL BLENDED QPF SOLN WHICH SEEMS THE BEST COURSE GIVEN SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY AMONG OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGS. THIS WOULD OFFER MUCH LIGHTER PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/FAR NORTHERN VT. MAX/MIN TEMPS A BLEND OF MOS AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA HERE WHICH WOULD OFFER FAIRLY MILD READINGS AREA WIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 lol...cancelling all events tommorow ftl. People thinking they get 6" Saturday...they might lose 6". Snowpack is going to go from healthy and fluffy to ugly and crusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nasty ice signal on the SREFs, for the high interior north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Someone should calculate the total number of hours that each zone in New England has sat under a WSW this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Whoa, Miller B on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Whoa, Miller B on the Euro. Yeah...we;ve been trying to keep it in the other thread....somewhat unsuccessfully though. But there's some talk about the Tues threat in the other thread for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah...we;ve been trying to keep it in the other thread....somewhat unsuccessfully though. But there's some talk about the Tues threat in the other thread for sure. My mistake...been busy today and just logged on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wonder why I am under a WSW when they are forecasting 6 inches. That's an advisory up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nasty ice signal on the SREFs, for the high interior north of the Pike. Yesterdays news IMO. Ultimately this is trending warmer and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wonder why I am under a WSW when they are forecasting 6 inches. That's an advisory up here. icing, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 icing, maybe? Yeah. I'm under a watch for 4-7. With that range, I think an advisory would more than suffice. But, doesn't matter to me what they call it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Berks could catch a little of the wrap around tomorrow night with an inch or two if the 18Z NAM has its way. We may actually get an inch or two of snow on the front end as well before a period of ZR. Could get nasty around here, especially in the hill towns because of ZR. Between some light snow on the front end and something on the backside, I'm going for a 2 to 4 inch scenario locally with 0.1" to as much as 0.25" of glazing. Tough call on many fronts though. Could wind up a tad warmer, could be a tad colder and snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 My zfp calls for 1-3 of sn/ip tomorrow and then just gives a "snow likely" for Sat night. I would have gone with an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 icing, maybe? i thought that...but the zone that dryslot is in has only snow and 6 inches, and a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah I always hate forecasting these. You can get a nasty 30F mini ice storm above 800-1000 feet a lot of times in these that aren't well forecast. Other times its 32F and very marginal that turns to 33F light rain before ending. NAM has vortmax too far N for much snow at the end...gets a bit strung out at the end. But still should be watched closely for a flashover at the end...if it tracks a little more consolidated just underneath us. I seriously am wondering if this doesn't end up a decent zr storm for the hills..deep snowpack, low dews...this could be a sneaky icestorm..Maybe that's weenieish..but I could honestly envision that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The icing concerns for parts of N MA into S VT/NH could start becoming a bit concerning...perhaps as much as 0.50'' of ice possible. While this storm is a low impact storm the results it helps produce could be of moderate to high impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wonder why I am under a WSW when they are forecasting 6 inches. That's an advisory up here. threat of ice probably. Also, it's just a watch, not a warning. Gives them room to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 wow @ 18z nam! almost .8" qpf here in the NEK of vt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I seriously am wondering if this doesn't end up a decent zr storm for the hills..deep snowpack, low dews...this could be a sneaky icestorm..Maybe that's weenieish..but I could honestly envision that happening I think there could def be some icing...esp the first half of the storm....if it wraps up enough then it could change to rain, but the front end could ice for awhile. Best chance is north though...however I wouldn't rule out your area yet either. Either way, your snow pack is going to be a huge glacier at the end of it...because it wont melt much unless it goes over 36-37F or so and the rain isn't heavy enough to run off much, so it will get absorbed....then it all refreezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The icing concerns for parts of N MA into S VT/NH could start becoming a bit concerning...perhaps as much as 0.50'' of ice possible. While this storm is a low impact storm the results it helps produce could be of moderate to high impact. yeah after looking at the 18z nam 850s, looks like they get into the Brattleboro,VT area, if not a little farther north...pretty crazy. EDIT: 700mb temps get to 0c up to Springfield,VT. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yesterdays news IMO. Ultimately this is trending warmer and warmer. It has a limit. I doubt this will go over FIT. That's an elevated ice signal at the very least. Maybe even the nrn CT valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 yeah after looking at the 18z nam 850s, looks like they get into the Brattleboro,VT area, if not a little farther north...pretty crazy. Most of the concerns for some may have to really start translating to the ice threat, especially considering some of these areas are going to start off as snow and a wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The icing concerns for parts of N MA into S VT/NH could start becoming a bit concerning...perhaps as much as 0.50'' of ice possible. While this storm is a low impact storm the results it helps produce could be of moderate to high impact. I don't think there's a threat for that much. .25 to maybe .33 at most. We're looking at around .7" of QPF. IMO this has always had a snow - sleet - rain look, with not much of a period of freezing rain. As it shifts north, the threat for zr increases as low level cold holds strong, but still doesn't look like an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 My brother is supposed to go to the Whale game in Portland tomorrow with the booster club...I wonder if they will still make the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i thought that...but the zone that dryslot is in has only snow and 6 inches, and a watch. They will upgrade overnight to a warning, They do mention a mix close to the coast as i am included in those areas as well here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think there could def be some icing...esp the first half of the storm....if it wraps up enough then it could change to rain, but the front end could ice for awhile. Best chance is north though...however I wouldn't rule out your area yet either. Either way, your snow pack is going to be a huge glacier at the end of it...because it wont melt much unless it goes over 36-37F or so and the rain isn't heavy enough to run off much, so it will get absorbed....then it all refreezes. I don't know if you saw my post from earlier today..but there was a storm similiar to this 5 or 6 winters ago and Drag came on in the morning and issued ice storm warnings from about the pike south. it had looked like snow and then warmed enough for ice..I think you guys may have had at least half snow. This reminds me of that. I just don't remember the date or exact yr. We had quite an icestorm in town above 800 feet. i was at my other house at 650 feet and had some ice but as bad as a few 100 feet higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't think there's a threat for that much. .25 to maybe .33 at most. We're looking at around .7" of QPF. IMO this has always had a snow - sleet - rain look, with not much of a period of freezing rain. As it shifts north, the threat for zr increases as low level cold holds strong, but still doesn't look like an ice storm. That would certainly be good news then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...COULD SEE A SWITCH BACK TO LIGHT SNOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH OF ROUTE 2...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. NORTH OF ROUTE 2 /WHERE ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED/...ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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