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February 5-6 Storm Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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will be interesting to see what Gray does with Saturday's system. Do ya step whole hog into the Euro? I think this will be one of those situations where we see a trend hard in one direction and then a little correction back to colder and easter.

Nam was similar, GFS has trended towards both, I think they pull the trigger at there afternoon AFD.

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Imediate coast, May have some mixing issues..

Looks like the family and I picked a good weekend to hit Shawnee; we're planning to head up there on Sunday. What's the timing on this now, BTW? From what I've been able to follow, it was starting to sound like less of a Saturday thing.

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Not happening.

so a 50 mile move SE is out of the question? that's interesting

also the 12z nam looks like it has route 2 /N orh county 0c 850 at 0z then ....at 6z a bit further S with the 0c line to the west of ORH and a tad further NE 0c 850 on the east side. a 30 mile jog SE of this line or should dynamics /deformation band be a bit more robust....it would look like sprinkles to moderate/heavy snow for a time no?

I mean why ride the euro right now. it's hasn' been the king this year. in fact there has been no king. i remember a week and a half ago the NCEP tossed the euro in favor of the GGEM and UKIE for christ sake.

i just don't see much qpf when temps are mildest and it seems like qpf starts picking up as heights start falling....and where not THAT far away from snow.....so a tick se and 495 is in the game IMO?

i know people HATE going bullish for snow against models and i'm not asking them to do that...just that it doesn't seem like it would take much ...esp if you decrown the euro and says yeah a tick SE wouldn't suprise me....toss the euro.

i have seen ticks SE this year .......it seems it ticks and tocks until it stops near ack/Mvy. and since this is moving ENE. we have a shot still

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Looks like the family and I picked a good weekend to hit Shawnee; we're planning to head up there on Sunday. What's the timing on this now, BTW? From what I've been able to follow, it was starting to sound like less of a Saturday thing.

Early Sunday here

Understood. With the Euro setup, does it push higher QPF inland or keep it along the coast?

Euro pushed the .75" line further west with the west track, .50" almost all the way to the Mtns

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so a 50 mile move SE is out of the question? that's interesting

also the 12z nam looks like it has route 2 /N orh county 0c 850 at 0z then ....at 6z a bit further S with the 0c line to the west of ORH and a tad further NE 0c 850 on the east side. a 30 mile jog SE of this line or should dynamics /deformation band be a bit more robust....it would look like sprinkles to moderate/heavy snow for a time no?

I mean why ride the euro right now. it's hasn' been the king this year. in fact there has been no king. i remember a week and a half ago the NCEP tossed the euro in favor of the GGEM and UKIE for christ sake.

i just don't see much qpf when temps are mildest and it seems like qpf starts picking up as heights start falling....and where not THAT far away from snow.....so a tick se and 495 is in the game IMO?

i know people HATE going bullish for snow against models and i'm not asking them to do that...just that it doesn't seem like it would take much ...esp if you decrown the euro and says yeah a tick SE wouldn't suprise me....toss the euro.

i have seen ticks SE this year .......it seems it ticks and tocks until it stops near ack/Mvy. and since this is moving ENE. we have a shot still

Yes we have, but this is a different pattern we are in now. There is nothing to stop this from coming closer to the coast.

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HPC and GYX taking their time this afternoon...probably trying to sort out all the crap in the models. Helluva day to have to make a forecast.

What's funny is that some weekend events around here were canceled two days ago in anticipation of this storm. We may still end up getting something moderately significant, but this has never been a slam-dunk and certainly didn't merit any special precautions or hype in an area that should be able to take a few inches of Saturday snow in stride. I think "the general public" is just conditioned now to expect every storm threat to come to fruition, when in a typical winter it's more hit-and-miss.

This winter has also seemingly turned everyone into a weather expert. Earlier today I overheard a woman in my office, who has never exhibited the slightest interest in or knowledge about weather -- matter-of-factly rattling off the supposed parade of storms coming: "Tomorrow, then Tuesday, and then another one next Friday." It was like she'd been reading posts here.

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