Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Once again we are at a crossroad with this upcoming strorm. American models advertise a colder/snowier event while the foreign models suggest more warm air will intrude and make it a sloppy mess for a lot of us. 12z runs are rolling out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 09z SREF's look right over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 09z SREF's look right over the BM. Looks very weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Once again we are at a crossroad with this upcoming strorm. American models advertise a colder/snowier just miss while the foreign models suggest more warm air will intrude and make it a sloppy mess a beautiful hit for a lot of us those of us where the population is often smaller than the amount of snow on the ground. 12z runs are rolling out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks very weak. Was going to say, yeah, like a 1004 low as it crosses over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Man,we just cannot seem to get any sort of converging solutions. SREF still SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 0c 850's get up to about the Pike around BOS back to HFD. Event over by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Man,we just cannot seem to get any sort of converging solutions. SREF still SE. This storm is happening later tomorrow, right?? LOL, you'd think this were 4 days from now with the variety of solutions we're seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 correct me if I am wrong SREF give us .50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still robust on QPF 0.5" for all of MA/CT/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 09z RSM still S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still robust on QPF 0.5" for all of MA/CT/RI. I have a feeling I'm getting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still robust on QPF 0.5" for all of MA/CT/RI. Even GC? that could be 4" if ratios play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still robust on QPF 0.5" for all of MA/CT/RI. It looked less than that in my eyes. Maybe like 0.3 to 0.4" or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Isn't that the 0.25" contour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 It looked less than that in my eyes. Maybe like 0.3 to 0.4" or so? This is my first time looking at the SREF's for this event so I have no comparison. My thought was just based on the meager SLP representation still giving that output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 wow...comparing the NAM at 12z 24 hours vs. 06z 30 hours vs. 00z. at 24 hours is ridiculous...the shortwave has slowed down so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wimpy wimpy wimpy Widespread "meh" 2-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0.25" on SREF gets all of CT/RI and to just NW of ORH in MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 09z RSM still S. Wagons south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nam is pretty warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 0.25" on SREF gets all of CT/RI and to just NW of ORH in MA SREF's seem to like GC up into N ORH County. Putrid snowfall prob's though. Basically nothing 4"+ over 12hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nam is pretty warm Epic ncep model failure. The others were right the pattern is changing. Slow bias replaced by actually slower/west/stronger systems aloft. IMO dt for the win too over time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wagons south? This is going to be a wagons meh event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nam is pretty warm Yeah 850 0C line just north of ORH and BOS at hr 36. Low in NJ with eastward extending warmfront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How can the NAM slow down the S/W so much in 6 hrs??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How can the NAM slow down the S/W so much in 6 hrs??? No longer a Sat event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Pretty strong height falls occurring by hr 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How can the NAM slow down the S/W so much in 6 hrs??? What a POS model..tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 so just mood precip tomorrow? we are less than a day out..this is so silly..and i do remember that 2/10/05 model disaster..i remember the zone forecast for noho had twelve to fifteen inches of snow one run and then the next update was like two to four inches or something. it only rained and not even all that much i think..less than .5 or .75 inches and i remember as that snowy forecast was rapidly unraveling temps soared to near 50 degrees lol... that was some epic bust lol...thanks for bringing that up awhile ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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